COVID-19 exposes EU's inept & clueless leadership

[HarryStotle]

I must caution that we do not have a good idea just how contagious the infected but asymptotic population is. No one has really answered that question to our satisfaction.

One study…

Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
Source: Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) | Science

 

[dvdjs]

As of March 10, the South Koreans had done 214,000 tests. These were tests of people showing at least some respiratory symptoms so presumably they were at least somewhat ill enough to report symptoms. The results: 7755 positive. 60 dead. That is 0.028% of everyone they tested who had some symptoms. So if we accept your 0.01% number,

Please. The 0.1% figure - (correct;y rendered in post#21, but with a typo in post#37, in not my number. It is the number of the CDC and the medical community, who use a consistent methodology for evaluation these things. It is that same community that is making the best, albeit provisional, estimates of the lethality of COVID-19.

If you think that the number is vastly too high, so be it. Fortunately, the nation’s response, at long last, is being informed by expert opinion.