They are only spurious in your opinion. Was Monod’s estimate that the chances of the appearance of the human brain were infinitely slender
He didn’t have to make precise calculations to know what he was talking about. He didn’t win the Nobel Prize for talking out of his hat.
You are evading the question. What is the mathematical probability that the principle of induction will continue to be valid?
Insufficient information.
Then all scientists are working with insufficient information… The success of science must also due to insufficient information…
Now you are equating life with chemistry! And according to you chemistry is the result of an accident because there is no reason why atomic particles or the elements or chemistry or life or anything else exists…
Physical life is chemistry. How well would you do if we removed all the chemicals from your body?
Very well indeed! I wouldn’t be bothered by my health problems.
If we are going to get into a discussion of front loading then all this detailed discussion of abiogenesis and the chemistry of life is irrelevant.
Not at all. The devil is in the details. You regard “chemistry” as an adequate explanation of physical life which radically affects your interpretation of existence. Do you believe there is any reason or purpose for our existence?
What is it a matter of then? Intuition?
No, observation. Buddhism works.
Scientific observation?
Do all your important views and decisions depend on your calculations?
No, just those related to science.
So the role of mathematical probability is strictly limited in philosophy?
- Most life on this planet has almost become extinct several times.
Most life on this planet has died. There are more extinct species than living species. Things die. What is your point here?
That there are overwhelming odds against survival.
- Immensely complex organisms are far less likely to survive than simple ones, e.g. dinosaurs and amoeba.
Amoeba are eukaryotes, and so are not a good example of a simple organism. Eubacteria or arche would be a better example as they are simpler.
The fact remains that unicellular organisms are far more likely to survive.
You are correct that large slow breeding species are less likely to survive major environmental changes than small fast breeding organisms. This is an easy prediction from evolutionary theory.
Which reinforces Monod’s conclusion - without the need for precise calculations - that the chances of the human brain appearing were “infinitely slender”.