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*Is "more probable" the very best estimate you can give?*
I am not a specialist in biology. What data do you think Jacques Monod had? Was he unjustified in drawing his conclusion?
“It is more likely that evolution is a random process with intelligence as only one of a large number of possible outcomes. It is not clear that intelligence has any long term survival value. Bacteria and other single cell organisms will live on if all other life on Earth is wiped out by our actions. There is support for the view that intelligence was an
unlikely development for life on Earth from the chronology of evolution.** It took a very long time: two and a half billion years to go from single cells to multi cell beings who are a necessary precursor to intelligence.** This is a good fraction of the total time available before the Sun blows up. So it would be consistent with the hypothesis that the probability for life to develop intelligence is low. In this case we might expect to find many other life forms in the galaxy but **we are unlikely to find intelligent life.” **
brembs.net/SWH.html
Do you agree with Hawking’s conclusion? If not why not?
Your previous answer “more probable” is extremely imprecise! I am referring to the **relative **probability **to one another **of the survival of prehistoric animals , e.g. an amoeba and a dinosaur.
Your question is extremely imprecise. A single amoeba may survive for weeks. A particular species of amoeba may survive for millions of years. A genus, or other higher clade, of amoeba may survive for hundreds of millions of years. You have not indicated what level you are talking about: individual, species or higher clade.
I specified an amoeba and a dinosaur. What is extremely imprecise about that?
What scientific evidence is there that the material universe is destroyed periodically and re-emerges after a period with no material life?
Very little, it is known as the oscillating universe theory. As I pointed out, that is Buddhism, not science.
So what is the non-scientific evidence for the truth of Buddhism - apart from your claim that “it works”?
- You cite a claim in an article that neuroscience neuroscience may explain the Dalai Lama…
I cited no such claim. Please re-read the article. Neuroscience may explain why the Dalai Lama is so happy. It does not claim to explain his existence.
That was the title of the article which:
- You accepted unquestioningly
- Is consistent with your view that life is chemistry
- Implies that mental activity can be explained by neuroscience
So in science there are no absolute probabilities?
Look in any scientific publication. Every figure comes with an indication of the expected error in that figure. Like “accurate to eighth decimal places” or “with 98.5% certainty” or “plus or minus 0.0042”.
Yet in practice you don’t allow for the possibility of error with regard to the fundamental laws of science?
I am not asking about when all
life on Earth will become extinct but whether you can estimate when different forms of life on earth were likely to become extinct. In other words which are likely to survive longer and, for example, the approximate degree of likelihood for an amoeba and an elephant. Mammal species in general do not last as long as protist species. The probability is that elephants as a species will go extinct before a given species of amoeba will go extinct. An individual elephant is highly likely to outlive an individual amoeba.
So the human brain is far less likely to appear and to survive than amoeba?
Are there overwhelming odds against survival on this planet - discounting human activity?
Yes. The Sun will destroy all life if a big asteroid doesn’t get us first. How is this question relevant to the topic of the thread?
It demonstrates that the survival of life on this planet has been against overwhelming odds for more than three billion years. Doesn’t that strike you as a remarkable fact? Or do you attribute it as a mere consequence of physical necessity?