Dem Primary Thread

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Theo520 said:
Yes, you are projecting again. And you are kinda lame with your insults.

My arms are perfectly acceptable to me, just the right amount of hair and the right length. I don’t even object to the hair coverage.
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Naw, I have total respect for you. Your posts are very thoughtful and whatever you post on, you have clearly thought out your position carefully. I’m just telling you how the millennials that you want to make fun of will think of you. It’s a strange thing that many my age can’t understand. You actually can’t treat them like garbage and expect respect.
 
Adults only polls contain adult residents who may not be registered or likely to vote within the mix. And in some cases may not even be actual citizens. Is there any particular reason you post these numbers? Opinions not attached to a vote won’t matter come election day.

The registered or likely voter aggregate shows higher approval: (though nothing to brag about atm)
538 - 42.9
RCP - 44.0
 
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Caldera said:
Is there any particular reason you post these numbers?
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Yes.
The discussion are typically about approval. That is a question that is properly asked of all in the nation. The restriction to likely voters is an oddity, IMO. It gives little insight into the next election. which is ultimately a choice among those running. Head to head preferences questions make more sense, although, this far out, they don’t mean much. Moreover, it introduces errors associated with the manner or assessing likelihood of voting.
Caldera said:
The registered or likely voter aggregate shows higher approval: (though nothing to brag about atm)
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And please note, the difference between adult vs likely voter polls are within MoE.
 
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dvdjs said:
The restriction to likely voters is an oddity, IMO. It gives little insight into the next election. which is ultimately a choice among those running.
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I’m not sure that makes sense. 🙂

Likely voters give a poll its best chance at accuracy when someone is eager to vote, and you know who they plan to vote for.
 
Caldera said:
Likely voters give a poll its best chance at accuracy when someone is eager to vote, and you know who they plan to vote for.
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  1. Approval polls are poor indicators of candidate selection. A far greater percentage of people voted for Trump in the last election, than approved of him. BTW, FOX just released polls showing how Trump is doing against the top four Democratic aspirants. He scores lower against them all then his approval numbers.
  2. The idea of “likely” introduces systematic error.
 
Again, the opinions of those who are registered and wanting to vote is more valuable in a poll than a mixed bag of those who may not be.
 
Don’t forget a lot of polls got it wrong in 2016. 538 was just the best known of these, but there were more where that came from. Seem to recall the only ones who got it right that year were the LA Times and Rasmussen. So those two bear watching again as 538 did in the last election. But no guarantee they’ll get it right either.
 
Should I care about the opinion of a random 18 yr. old adult (kid) fresh out of high school who has no plan to vote in the coming election and who likely doesn’t know much if anything yet about politics other than the earful he/she may get walking past a TV with CNN claiming how horrible the president is 24/7, for example?

Should I care about the opinion of someone who may not even be a citizen of the country?

Seriously…

I don’t care about the MoE. The adults only polls shows a consistently less approval than the registered or likely voter polls. Would that be the reason you like to post it?
 
Caldera said:
Should I care about the opinion of a random 18 yr. old adult (kid) fresh out of high school who has no plan to vote in the coming election and who likely doesn’t know much if anything yet about politics other than the earful he/she may get walking past a TV with CNN claiming how horrible the president is 24/7, for example?
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I think more young people are voting than ever, so you probably should care about what the 18 year old thinks.

And I am confident they are not getting their news from CNN.
 
Caldera said:
Should I care about the opinion of someone
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It depends. If you wish to discuss what polls are saying about Trump’s approval, then yes.
If, however, you wish to gauge how Trump might fare in a re-election bid, then no. But in the latter case, approval polls aren’t especially useful, for reasons that I have already noted; there are head to head polls available.

Caldera said:
I don’t care about the MoE.
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You should, of course. In this particular discussion, you are arguing about a difference that is not statistically significant.
Caldera said:
Would that be the reason you like to post it?
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I already gave you my reasons. And I have had to essentially recapitulate them in this post.
Is there something that you are trying to imply when you post some alternative that you have conjured up?
 
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True probably more like late night talk/ comedy shows :woman_facepalming:t2:
 
robertmidwest said:
In fact, millennials continue to have the lowest voter turnout of any age group.
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A bit out of date. In 2018:
Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump.

www.census.gov

Voter Turnout Rates Among All Voting Age and Major Racial and Ethnic Groups Were Higher Than in 2014

New Census Bureau data show that voting increased among all voting age and major racial and ethnic groups.
www.census.gov www.census.gov
 
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