Demographic Winter - a new documentary - this looks outstanding!

[thomasf]

I guess we owe it to the doom & gloom crowd to explain the issue. Economic=trade so more more trade equal more economic activity. Historical economic growth is achieved through two methods one is population growth, the other is productivity growth. When population growth occurs more people live at the same standard of living. So there is growth which benefits no individual (except the government). However when productivity increases the individual trades more, and thus the standard of living increases for the individual. So we can clearly see productivity increases are the desired method of economic growth. Throughout human history our best understanding is we have had 90% population driven economic growth and 10% productivity driven economic growth. In the next 100 years that will probably change. Our children will have higher standards of living than we can imagine while watching population decline or stabilize.

So what is the issue in your film; well it is the government promise to have the unborn pay for the vacation (junket). A child born today owes about $40,000 to the US government. In 30 years that may well be $500,000 or even a $1,000,000. So will that collapse the system, not necessarily. Today people stream in from the south to assume citizenship and debt, maybe in 2040 people will stream out to avoid citizenship and debt? Additionally who owes who the money? Well it turns out the government administration owes the money to the government social security. If that is confusing I’ll explain it. Each American worker is overpaying into the social security so upon their death the overpayment which forfeited to the government actually eliminates a piece of the debt. Now your questions are about cash flow. And cash flow will be handled as always by taxation (of all people to include retires) and borrowing.

Hope that helps

What does any of that have to do with the documentary that is the topic of this thread? The movie talks about ALL of the effects of a declining population on the world, not just economic problems. And what it comes down to in terms of population, in countries with declining replacement rates, is that there are going to be more old people needing more care, and fewer workers to fill the jobs and provide a tax base for that care. The US is borderline as far as replacement rate and immigration, but countries like Russia and the European nations that have a low birth rate aren’t going to be able to keep up. And not all of those countries are countries that people are looking to immigrate to. And from a christian standpoint, many of those countries are getting mulsim immigrants that are filling in where christians aren’t reproducing.

I heard an interview with one of the people behind this movie on Al Kresta and it was very interesting. It is amazing to me how fast the population thing can turn around. There is going to be a backlash from the effects of the pill and contraception and abortion in general because of this stuff. The next 20 or so years are going to be a very interesting time in this country as the boomers start retire and to die off. The service sector is going to take off.

 

[mlchance]

The Demographic Winter and the Barren Left by Steven W. Mosher.

– Mark L. Chance.

 

[Texas_Roofer]

What does any of that have to do with the documentary that is the topic of this thread? The movie talks about ALL of the effects of a declining population on the world, not just economic problems. And what it comes down to in terms of population, in countries with declining replacement rates, is that there are going to be more old people needing more care, and fewer workers to fill the jobs and provide a tax base for that care. The US is borderline as far as replacement rate and immigration, but countries like Russia and the European nations that have a low birth rate aren’t going to be able to keep up. And not all of those countries are countries that people are looking to immigrate to. And from a christian standpoint, many of those countries are getting mulsim immigrants that are filling in where christians aren’t reproducing.

I heard an interview with one of the people behind this movie on Al Kresta and it was very interesting. It is amazing to me how fast the population thing can turn around. There is going to be a backlash from the effects of the pill and contraception and abortion in general because of this stuff. The next 20 or so years are going to be a very interesting time in this country as the boomers start retire and to die off. The service sector is going to take off.

I’ll be glad to help you understand if you want ask specific questions I will walk you through them.

Does this help: The weekend before my mother signed up for social security we (she, I, and my children) were riding roller coasters! Just because someone is 62 does not mean they are disabled, nor does it mean they have to walk to down for groceries. They now have cars, delivery services, self checking, etc, etc, etc your movie assumes we have to find switch board operators (there are no switch boards). Who will make the buggy, and buggy whips? Nobody, because neither is used anymore. We have more machines, and that will continue, we have better services and that will continue. There really is no problem ( other than over taxation).

 

[rpp]

To all who read this thread,

Keep in mind Texas Roofer has not seen the film whose content he is objecting to and disagreeing with. How he is able to do this is unclear, but he has clearly misunderstood the film’s content, as is evidenced in his posts.

 

[Texas_Roofer]

That is funny but I guess it is fair.

The keys are:

1. Demographic Winter would have to be a misnomer
2. The Website Intro would have to be unrelated ( though it matches the title)
3. The website Trailer would have to be unrelated (though it matches the title, and the website intro)
4. The quotes which appear on the website would have to be unrelated (though it matches the title, the website intro, and the trailer)
5. The posts on the thread would have to be unrelated (though it matches the title, the website intro, the trailer, and quotes on the website)

Hope that helps

 

[ljprevo]

Texas,

I thought of that as well, machines making machines. A person is almost not needed any more.

I thought of this as I filled up at the gas station the other day. What is different from when I worked at a gas station as a kid. “Pay at the Pump”

I see the gas station packed, cars waiting to fill up, guess what, ONE cashier in the store!

Wow when I worked and managed a gas station that would not have been possible because then there was not “Pay at the Pump” ever customer had to be rang up by a cashier.

I however do see some merit to population decline, however maybe not at bad as the movie portrays, yet there is still merit.

 

[maryj]

I’ll be glad to help you understand if you want ask specific questions I will walk you through them.

Does this help: The weekend before my mother signed up for social security we (she, I, and my children) were riding roller coasters! Just because someone is 62 does not mean they are disabled, nor does it mean they have to walk to down for groceries. They now have cars, delivery services, self checking, etc, etc, etc your movie assumes we have to find switch board operators (there are no switch boards). Who will make the buggy, and buggy whips? Nobody, because neither is used anymore. We have more machines, and that will continue, we have better services and that will continue. There really is no problem ( other than over taxation).

And who will fix those cars when they break down, who will deliver at the delivery service, who will man the banks that have self checking, who will dig the ditch or run the equiptment to dig the ditch, who will nurse you in the hospital, who will empty the bed pan, who will refill the oranges, apples and bananas at the produce counter, who will mow the lawns, sweep the streets, drive the snow plows, write out your ticket for speeding, who will serve at the altar with the priest???
I, in my own business, already see the lack of people to employ, we’ve been struggling with it for over 5 years. someone has to dig the ditch!!!

 

[Texas_Roofer]

And who will fix those cars when they break down,

mechanics but we will not need so many because the cars will be more dependable, as today’s cars are much better than cars from the 30’s, 40’s, and 50’s. Additionally, there may be less drivers a lot less drivers. If you have a choice between a traffic jam and relaxation many will chose the relaxation.

who will deliver at the delivery service,

probably true delivery services verses the pizza guy of today. Your pizza, groceries, mail, and hardware may all show up at once.

who will man the banks that have self checking,

uh? I go to the bank about once a year to sign a contract or something. This could easily be done on line with a copy to sign in the mail

who will dig the ditch

backhoe

or run the equipment to dig the ditch

today a backhoe operator digs more than 50 men did in 1800. Maybe tomorrow’s backhoe will replace 200 men with shovels

, who will nurse you in the hospital, who will empty the bed pan,

I plan on riding the roller coaster instead, old does mean sick, or disabled.

who will refill the oranges, apples and bananas at the produce counter,

if the fruit is delivered to your house with the other things why should a “produce counter” even exist?

who will mow the lawns

machines, unless we get that dwarf grass which does not need mowed

, sweep the streets

machines

, drive the snow plows,

machines

, write out your ticket for speeding,

I probably won’t drive

, who will serve at the altar with the priest???

adults

,
I, in my own business, already see the lack of people to employ, we’ve been struggling with it for over 5 years. Someone has to dig the ditch!!!

try offering a higher wage, my brother is the same he can never find extremely talented people to work themselves to death for $35,000 it seem they always work for people who pay more. I guess life is not fair to him?

 

[maryj]

mechanics but we will not need so many because the cars will be more dependable, as today’s cars are much better than cars from the 30’s, 40’s, and 50’s. Additionally, there may be less drivers a lot less drivers. If you have a choice between a traffic jam and relaxation many will chose the relaxation. probably true delivery services verses the pizza guy of today. Your pizza, groceries, mail, and hardware may all show up at once. uh? I go to the bank about once a year to sign a contract or something. This could easily be done on line with a copy to sign in the mail backhoe today a backhoe operator digs more than 50 men did in 1800. Maybe tomorrow’s backhoe will replace 200 men with shovels I plan on riding the roller coaster instead, old does mean sick, or disabled. if the fruit is delivered to your house with the other things why should a “produce counter” even exist? machines, unless we get that dwarf grass which does not need mowed machines machines I probably won’t drive adults try offering a higher wage, my brother is the same he can never find extremely talented people to work themselves to death for $35,000 it seem they always work for people who pay more. I guess life is not fair to him?

ah! a liberal are we!!

 

[Texas_Roofer]

ah! a liberal are we!!

Is a man buying and selling services on a free market the definition of liberal? Or does conservative mean someone owes you their work for your benefit? Somehow it seems you may be in tune with these new republicans ?

 

[rpp]

Texas, it is one thing to disagree, but it is not intellectually honest to discount a theory out of hand without being informed about it. I suggest that you at least educate yourself as to what they are really saying. You cannot do that from the website and the trailers.

You have made some seemingly important points, but you have based these on important assumptions. Your main assumption regards who is paying for what and when. The first and central mistake you made several posts ago was that when people pay into the Social Security system (USA), the money is held in reserve for them and that is what is paid to them when they retire. That is not correct. Money that is paid in now is paid out now. There is some reserve, but it is shrinking fast. My paycheck is paying for my mother’s social security. My mother, incidentally, never paid one penny to Social Security, she was a stay-at-home-mom and my father, who passed away in October, was the sole support.

As the population shrinks, and the declining birth rate is not a matter of debate, the proportion of people beyond the retirement age grows. Fewer people are paying those taxes. Yet demand for services like supported living and health care, traditionally rather expensive, grows.

What I described above is fact. The issue is whether this will cause an significant economic downturn.

In Japan the birth rate has been below replacement level for more than a generation and the population has declined significantly (Unlike other industrialized nations, Japan had no post WWII “baby boom”.). Unlike all the other industrialized nations, their economy has also struggled significantly for the last 15 years and continues to struggle. I saw all this personally as I lived in Japan. The newspapers there often expressed concern about the sharp decline in population and the low birth rate.

Again, more facts.

The issue is whether if what is happening in Japan is some sort of odd economic cycle that is unrelated to the changing demographic, or a early sign of what is to come as the rest of the world’s population ages.

So if you want to discuss this intelligently, become informed.

 

[vz71]

So if you want to discuss this intelligently, become informed.

Agreed.

Not that I am, this is just a shameless plug to subscribe to the thread and read how this plays out.

Feel free to ignore this post.

 

[maryj]

Agreed.

Not that I am, this is just a shameless plug to subscribe to the thread and read how this plays out.

Feel free to ignore this post.

tip: hit thread tools button at top of postings and subscribe to thread without posting…back to our regularily schedualed programming…

 

[maryj]

Is a man buying and selling services on a free market the definition of liberal? Or does conservative mean someone owes you their work for your benefit? Somehow it seems you may be in tune with these new republicans ?

Owes you their work??? And by the way thanks for the complement…I haven’t been called NEW in a long time

 

[Texas_Roofer]

Agreed.

Not that I am, this is just a shameless plug to subscribe to the thread and read how this plays out.

Feel free to ignore this post.

that is hilarious

Texas, it is one thing to disagree, but it is not intellectually honest to discount a theory out of hand without being informed about it. I suggest that you at least educate yourself as to what they are really saying. You cannot do that from the website and the trailers.

You have made some seemingly important points, but you have based these on important assumptions. Your main assumption regards who is paying for what and when. The first and central mistake you made several posts ago was that when people pay into the Social Security system (USA), the money is held in reserve for them and that is what is paid to them when they retire.

? ? I do not recall believing that, so it would seem strange to make an assumption I do not believe

That is not correct. Money that is paid in now is paid out now. There is some reserve, but it is shrinking fast.

? how can there be a reserve? Think about it, what money really is, a reserve note

My paycheck is paying for my mother’s social security. My mother, incidentally, never paid one penny to Social Security, she was a stay-at-home-mom and my father, who passed away in October, was the sole support.

my condolences, I hope she stays involved in some type of positive activity as that is so important, for those in this situation

As the population shrinks, and the declining birth rate is not a matter of debate, the proportion of people beyond the retirement age grows. Fewer people are paying those taxes. Yet demand for services like supported living and health care, traditionally rather expensive, grows.

key word “traditionally” if you saw the earlier post traditionally people do not ride a roller coaster before they get a SS check, however they do now. Traditionally we do not tax that income, we will now. Traditionally 60+ means bad health, not now.

What I described above is fact. The issue is whether this will cause an significant economic downturn.

In Japan the birth rate has been below replacement level for more than a generation and the population has declined significantly (Unlike other industrialized nations, Japan had no post WWII “baby boom”.). Unlike all the other industrialized nations,

depending on whose numbers you use some same Germany has been in that condition for 48 years

their economy has also struggled significantly for the last 15 years and continues to struggle. I saw all this personally as I lived in Japan. The newspapers there often expressed concern about the sharp decline in population and the low birth rate.

actually Japan has many economic issues, far more than the children issue. The real-estate bubble, monopolistic (vertical) supply chains, etc. all play in. One of Japan biggest issue is - they do not like immigration.

Again, more facts.

The issue is whether if what is happening in Japan is some sort of odd economic cycle that is unrelated to the changing demographic, or a early sign of what is to come as the rest of the world’s population ages.

So if you want to discuss this intelligently, become informed.

Japan’s economic problems are lessened by the low child birth rate, not caused by low birth rates. If you look at the short term you will see Europe has for years had a declining native population and a growing population.

 

[Texas_Roofer]

Maybe some lost the issue with the overtaxing social security(ss) withholdings; then “loaning” that excess tax to the administration. This loan has a twofold objective 1) reduce the actual debt* and 2) transfer the ownership of the debt from private owners (as China) to public owners as US Government’s Social Security. The latter issue is designed to prevent a run on the US government’s currency. Today about 55% of the debt is publicly owned and 45% is owned by the government. If the current group of US Government officials had not over spent so drastically the debt would have been highly government owned today and had virtually no risk to foreign runs on currency. Hope that helps

*This occurs when those of us who over pay retirement benefits, retire on small social security payments. We paid at a rate for extravagant retirement and most of that money we will never see.

A reference concerning the public/private issue
frbsf.org/education/activities/drecon/answerxml.cfm?selectedurl=/2005/0507.html