Demographic Winter: Decline of the Human Family

[Geremia]

Food depends on oil and natural gas

Does it? I find the laicized Catholic priest Ivan Illich’s work Energy and Equity (View attachment 4586) very interesting. In it he shows that

Man, unaided by any tool, gets around quite efficiently. He carries one gram of his weight over a kilometer in ten minutes by expending 0.75 calories. Man on his feet is thermodynamically more efficient than any motorized vehicle and most animals. For his weight, he performs more work in locomotion than rats or oxen, less than horses or sturgeon. At this rate of efficiency man settled the world and made its history. At this rate peasant societies spend less than 5 per cent and nomads less than 8 per cent of their respective social time budgets outside the home or the encampment.

Man on a bicycle can go three or four times faster than the pedestrian, but uses five times less energy in the process. He carries one gram of his weight over a kilometer of flat road at an expense of only 0.15 calories. The bicycle is the perfect transducer to match man’s metabolic energy to the impedance of locomotion. Equipped with this tool, man outstrips the efficiency of not only all machines but all other animals as well.

Humans bodies are very efficient machines and much more so when coupled to a man-powered bicycle. If 1 gallon of regular unleaded gasoline contains 31,520 kilocalories (food calories) of energy, and cars average 25 miles per gallon, then it takes cars 783 kcal to go 1 kilometer. If man weighs 80 kilograms on average, then with a bicycle man only uses 12 kilocalories to go 1 kilometer, or about 65 times more efficient than an automobile. Man is 5 times less efficient without a bicycle but still 13 times more efficient than an automobile. If there is roughly 1 automobile per 11 people worldwide, then earth’s resources without automobiles could support about 14.6 billion people, assuming that 1 automobile strains the environment as much as 13 people, that there are currently 6.7 billion people worldwide, and that we are currently maximally straining our environment’s resources.

 

[Geremia]

Here is the correct link to Energy and Equity: View attachment 4587.

 

[StAnastasia]

Does it?

Yes – most food today is overwhelmingly dependent on oil and natural gas for cultivating, planting, watering, harvesting, processing, and transporting of it.

 

[Geremia]

Yes – most food today is overwhelmingly dependent on oil and natural gas for cultivating, planting, watering, harvesting, processing, and transporting of it.

I should have asked “Must it?”

 

[StAnastasia]

I should have asked “Must it?”

Can you suggest another realistic way of fertilizing land to produce food sufficient to support 6.5 billion people and more? Using animal dung will only take land out of cultivation to be put into pasturage. Not fertilizing the land will gradually degrade it. Oil and natural gas have been a great boon to humankind, and we are approaching the end of that era, with no realistic replacement in sight to support our current population.

StAnastasia

 

[Geremia]

Can you suggest another realistic way of fertilizing land to produce food sufficient to support 6.5 billion people and more?

The vast majority of oil is used for transportation. If everything were done on a local scale, then there would be no need to import fruits from New Zealand when we could grow them here or force Vietnemese to make our clothes only to transport them here, where we could have made them in the first place without unnecessarily expending resources to transport them.

Pope Benedict XVI has spoken out about the evils of globalization, and we should be able to see how it promotes a culture of death.

 

[StAnastasia]

If everything were done on a local scale, then there would be no need to import fruits from New Zealand when we could grow them here or force Vietnemese to make our clothes only to transport them here, where we could have made them in the first place without unnecessarily expending resources to transport them.

And if things were done on a local scale, we wouldn’t have billions of people commuting huge distances to work every day. We could do away with suburbs.

 

[thomfra]

And if things were done on a local scale, we wouldn’t have billions of people commuting huge distances to work every day. We could do away with suburbs.

But it not as simple as that. For example growing tomatoes locally in a greenhouse with lights heating etc, may not be as efficient as growing them in a sunny place far away and transporting them…

 

[StAnastasia]

But it not as simple as that. For example growing tomatoes locally in a greenhouse with lights heating etc, may not be as efficient as growing them in a sunny place far away and transporting them…

Maybe people should get used to not having tomatoes all year around. Maybe some places should not be inhabited year round, like Minnesota.

 

[thomfra]

Maybe people should get used to not having tomatoes all year around. Maybe some places should not be inhabited year round, like Minnesota.

I must admit. I think we would get decidely better produce if we just ate seasonally.

It’s my pipe dream to grow all my own vegetables one day. But I need a bigger yard… (plus I can wait until the kids are older I can put them to work for pocket money…heheh)

 

[Michael_David]

StAnastasia, when you said: “Maybe people should get used to not having tomatoes all year around. Maybe some places should not be inhabited year round, like Minnesota.”, I just have comment.

When I was younger, we had a 5 acre garden and a small farm. From that farm came our veggies, fruits and meat to feed all of us rug-rats year-round. A lot was canned come fall harvest, the root cellar held a lot too, as did the onions hanging in the barn for individual use. We had no such thing as a freezer back then, it was all preserved by the old school ways. Milk from the cows, Thanksgiving feast from our own turkey, fresh chicken, our own grain and cereal from the fields, Quite encompassing. Most of this ‘talent’ was brought from the old-country and handed down generation by generation.

Times changed and America wanted to boost the economy. It was more ‘financially’ inviting to work a job and buy all that stuff we used to grow ourselves. Now, going on the 3rd generation of this economy boosting, we are seeing an upper cap that will not let us passed it. And, how many of the younger ones even know how to do what we used to do back when? We were pretty much self-sufficient back then, and what we did not have, the neighbor did and we could trade for it. (Back when neighbors were part of the neighborhood).

Times have changed… and they are changing again.

By the way, all this happened in Minnesota! Where I have lived ‘year-round’ since birth.

 

[marietta]

This from “The Movement For A Better America”, the website link offered by the Original Poster, Geremia:

“Total number of abortions in the United States **since 1973: **50,500,000.
Population of 71 largest U.S. cities: 50,511,700 (2008 projected)
Number of babies aborted each year worldwide – 50,000,000”.

I’m no mathematician, but these numbers look really goofy to me. Who is actually doing the score-keeping?

marietta

 

[LeroyCRHP]

The video is moving and not about oil. It is not about geographic location.

The discussion is not about overpopulation, they are describing population decline for the rich nations. By the way this has happened in history…

The video is talking about why we chose to not have babies whether it is birth control, abortion, women working or economic achievement.

Bravo for a great video!

 

[Sam_Maloney]

Maybe people should get used to not having tomatoes all year around. Maybe some places should not be inhabited year round, like Minnesota.

So people in Northern climes should give up thier homes for the sake of your ideal of eco-purity?

 

[Sam_Maloney]

I must admit. I think we would get decidely better produce if we just ate seasonally.

It’s my pipe dream to grow all my own vegetables one day. But I need a bigger yard… (plus I can wait until the kids are older I can put them to work for pocket money…heheh)

If I ate seasonally, I’d have greens about 2 months a year.

I see no problem trading my extra beef for spinach from SoCal, or coffee from Sumatra.

A varied diet makes for better health for us all.

 

[thomfra]

If I ate seasonally, I’d have greens about 2 months a year.

I see no problem trading my extra beef for spinach from SoCal, or coffee from Sumatra.

A varied diet makes for better health for us all.

Well you gotta eat your greens. No argument there Sam.

 

[StAnastasia]

So people in Northern climes should give up thier homes for the sake of your ideal of eco-purity?

Not eco-purity – just sheer economics. I have relatives in Minnesota and Northern Michigan (Marquette) who pay over $200 per month for heating oil. They know the end of affordable oil is coming soon, and when heating costs hit $2,000 per month they will probably think of moving to a more temperate climate.

StAnastasia

 

[Michael_David]

Quote: Not eco-purity – just sheer economics. I have relatives in Minnesota and Northern Michigan (Marquette) who pay over $200 per month for heating oil. They know the end of affordable oil is coming soon, and when heating costs hit $2,000 per month they will probably think of moving to a more temperate climate.

Yes, let’s see, we have wood, propane, coal, natural gas, fuel oil and electric forms of heating our dwellings up here in the northland. Our big electric utility has converted to natural gas to give us lights and power for this computer… leaving more oil for other uses. Most furnaces are very adaptable for their energy source… while air conditioning is more rigid in how it is done, on a family sized basis.

It is interesting but I have heard that ‘necessity is the mother of invention’…

 

[StAnastasia]

Yes, let’s see, we have wood, propane, coal, natural gas, fuel oil and electric forms of heating our dwellings up here in the northland. Our big electric utility has converted to natural gas to give us lights and power for this computer… leaving more oil for other uses. Most furnaces are very adaptable for their energy source… while air conditioning is more rigid in how it is done, on a family sized basis.

The sustainable pre-Columbian human population of Minnesota was very small. The population has been boosted temporarily by the discovery and application of petroleum and natural gas for heating, cooking, and electricity generation. When those resources run out, as they inevitably will, the population will fall back to a level that can be sustained without relying on fossil fuels. Wood can support some people, but Minnesota’s woodlands would not long survive if every household converted to wood-burning stoves.

StAnastasia

 

[Michael_David]

StAnastasia, I do not say it is cheap to heat a home up here, or to modify a house for greater R-Value (putting on a hooded parka sorta), but that is the cost of living here. As down in Arizona it is the air conditioning that costs, both in the homes and in the cars. I can think of only one place that has ‘livable’ temperatures year-round and that is Hawaii. If we all went there, the islands would sink.

Whatever comes down the pike, we will have to adjust… if it is in our lifetime. Right now, oil is being used more for political persuasions then it is for the lack of it. Our own off-shore drilling ban is an example. Even where oil is in Alaska has bans on drilling for it, as we found out during the campaigning. And yes, cars should make 30-40-50 MPG instead of the 15-18-22 MPH for the ones that are on the market. My lil Metro made near 60 MPH on the road (and 48 MPH in town), but it was discontinued by GM in '02… Why? It is the political climate that creates the shortage, and the natural price increase that follows.

Look what happened when gasoline got $4 a gal. Now it is down since the sales were down. Same with the Christmas shopping and goods prices, they are down since the people cannot buy at the prices (and HUGE profit margins) the stores want. As a reference, I have tracked the price of wholesale gasoline for 3 years now, and the price at the pump… the profit margin has been as low as 40 cents a gallon, up to $1.20 a gallon when the stations (government) wanted us to cut back. Who is regulating who? Who is being manipulated? Who is making the big bucks from all this? And there is still oil to burn. (PS: wholesale price today is $1.11… you figure out the profit per gallon).

There is no such thing as product pricing for a percentage profit now days. It is now, what the market will bear! And if one can create a shortage, more can be charged (because we have been duped into believing it). How can the price of gasoline in Irag be 17 cents a gallon (remember when it was that here?)… we, as an oil resource country (if we drilled for it) could be the same. It’s like not going out to bring the wood in for the fireplace while complaining that the house is cold. We have it, we just have to get the politics out of the way and be the country we were up till somewhere in the '60 when it all started to go downhill.

Our only advantage is that of the recession we are in with a lot of unemployment means less money in the consumers hands to spend… now the shortage is with the consumer funds. Good job’s lost; working for half of what one made just 10 years ago, if working at all; or of the two-earner house, now it is one. So, I ask, who does have the money that used to ‘flow’ to and through us? Seems the government has it (have we been over taxed to the point of what’s happening now?) .

I’ll let you figure it out, it’s giving me a headache…