Energy Having A Nervous Breakdown?

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Few noticed it, but Natural Gas was the first energy item to begin a breakdown several days ago.
Then the Gasoline sector followed.
Finally, today, the Crude Sector is having a nervous breakdown.
See Charts attached.

This is the beginning of the end of the Great Energy Bubble.
By this same day next year, gasoline will be $2.33 or less.
Just about the time that all the carmakers have scrapped their truck plants, and are building mini-cars that no one will then buy.
The time to buy a pickup/SUV IF you need one is NOW. The time to buy a mini-car will be 1 year from now when they can hardly give them away.
I’ll post to this thread 1 year from now, and we’ll put the charts up again.

sites3.barchart.com/pl/vsn/default.asp?code=XVSN&section=energies
 
I think TNT is dead on. This is a bubble thing, just like the housing deal. It’ll burst, sure as anything.
 
TNT said:
This is the beginning of the end of the Great Energy Bubble.
Click to expand...
LOL, OK Chicken Little. Oil is back up on renewed tension over Iran and the possibility of supply disruptions due to storms in the Gulf. You’ll be eating that cheap SUV you just bought as a “prescient” forecast of future market behavior. 😉
 
There is very little different today in the world than 2 years ago when oil was $50 a barrel. Other than speculation of course.
 
iamrefreshed said:
There is very little different today in the world than 2 years ago when oil was $50 a barrel. Other than speculation of course.
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Even if that were true, bubbles can expand for years before bursting. Much more likely in the short term is a collapse of the banking industry, more so than light sweet crude. Financial have been taking a beating, even though oil had a big drop in the past few weeks. It could be going up again, perhaps over 150$ a barrel (who knows - maybe 170$), or it could be a dead cat bouncing. The whole point is that markets are terribly complex, and recommending people to buy a cheap SUV because oil is “definitely” taking a dive is pretty lousy advice.
 
nobeerinheaven said:
Even if that were true, bubbles can expand for years before bursting. Much more likely in the short term is a collapse of the banking industry, more so than light sweet crude. Financial have been taking a beating, even though oil had a big drop in the past few weeks. It could be going up again, perhaps over 150$ a barrel (who knows - maybe 170$), or it could be a dead cat bouncing. The whole point is that markets are terribly complex, and recommending people to buy a cheap SUV because oil is “definitely” taking a dive is pretty lousy advice.
Click to expand...
Agree 100%
 
Since prices are falling (I have seen gas for 3.97 at a place where it was as high as 4.29) you are not hearing much on the news about it since it does not fit into the anti-Bush agenda.

Corn is down over 20% from its highs and is now below $6 a bushel. Wheat and Sugar are down over 10% and other commodities are down too but I do not have the charts for them. However, if you do not follow the financial markets directly, you do not hear it.

The censorship of the MSM is deafening.
 
peregrinus_WA said:
Since prices are falling (I have seen gas for 3.97 at a place where it was as high as 4.29) you are not hearing much on the news about it since it does not fit into the anti-Bush agenda.
Click to expand...
The threat of deflation looms as well, which is one thing Bernanke seems worried about.
 
peregrinus_WA said:
Since prices are falling (I have seen gas for 3.97 at a place where it was as high as 4.29) you are not hearing much on the news about it since it does not fit into the anti-Bush agenda.

Corn is down over 20% from its highs and is now below $6 a bushel. Wheat and Sugar are down over 10% and other commodities are down too but I do not have the charts for them. However, if you do not follow the financial markets directly, you do not hear it.

The censorship of the MSM is deafening.
Click to expand...
I bought gasoline today for under $4. When I commented on it, the guy said the owner has to be competitive with the highway gas stations so he has to look around. If he prices too high, he won’t sell any gasoline. So, he needs to price as low as he can to be competitive.

Competition is a potent force. There is competition among drillers to drill for more oil and natural gas. There is competition between coal and petroleum. People are trying to make nuke more competitive.

The only people who are non-competitive are those who get government protection or government subsidies. They don’t have to worry about competition. And if conditions get too difficult they just go to the government and get more assistance courtesy of the involuntary taxpayer.
 
Al_Masetti said:
I bought gasoline today for under $4. When I commented on it, the guy said the owner has to be competitive with the highway gas stations so he has to look around. If he prices too high, he won’t sell any gasoline. So, he needs to price as low as he can to be competitive.

Competition is a potent force. There is competition among drillers to drill for more oil and natural gas. There is competition between coal and petroleum. People are trying to make nuke more competitive.

The only people who are non-competitive are those who get government protection or government subsidies. They don’t have to worry about competition. And if conditions get too difficult they just go to the government and get more assistance courtesy of the involuntary taxpayer.
Click to expand...
Prices are dropping rapidly. The one gas station that was 4.05 two days ago is now 3.96.
 
peregrinus_WA said:
Since prices are falling (I have seen gas for 3.97 at a place where it was as high as 4.29) you are not hearing much on the news about it since it does not fit into the anti-Bush agenda…
The censorship of the MSM is deafening.
Click to expand...
Luckily, we have a few courageous men in this country publishing out of their basements and garages willing to risk their careers, and perhaps even their lives, to fight this conspiracy of silence by the mainstream media.

Like say the Associated Press, CNN, and USA Today.
 
Digitonomy said:
Luckily, we have a few courageous men in this country publishing out of their basements and garages willing to risk their careers, and perhaps even their lives, to fight this conspiracy of silence by the mainstream media.

Like say the Associated Press, CNN, and USA Today.
Click to expand...
I like how you iditedred out:
Corn is down over 20% from its highs and is now below $6 a bushel. Wheat and Sugar are down over 10% and other commodities are down too but I do not have the charts for them. However, if you do not follow the financial markets directly, you do not hear it.
Click to expand...
out of my post

But nothing on the agricultural commodities. Only oil.
 
the oil price trend since around 2001 has been exponentially increasing after inflation injustment. inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Oil/Inflation_Adj_Oil_Prices_Chart.htm
Few noticed it, but Natural Gas was the first energy item to begin a breakdown several days ago.
Then the Gasoline sector followed.
Finally, today, the Crude Sector is having a nervous breakdown.
See Charts attached.
Click to expand...
i question the period of your graph. it shows less than a year. you need to show the long term trend. obviously, the price of oil will come down dramatically once the summer driving season is over. the long term trend at least now appears to be highly volitile but steadly increasing.
 
Dee_Dee_King said:
the oil price trend since around 2001 has been exponentially increasing after inflation injustment. inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Oil/Inflation_Adj_Oil_Prices_Chart.htmi question the period of your graph. it shows less than a year. you need to show the long term trend. obviously, the price of oil will come down dramatically once the summer driving season is over. the long term trend at least now appears to be highly volitile but steadly increasing.
Click to expand...
You’re right; a longer period is needed. At the very least, the graphs need to show several years just so you can see the seasonal variations.

And it helps also to show things like recessions and stock market graphs, so you can tie in the pricing to the overall financial markets. Maybe even show “overall commodities” markets, if there is such a thing. Gold/platinum/palladium/silver do one thing. Steel/ copper may do something else.

Tie it in with a graph of drill rigs. But there are several classes of drill rigs.

Gets complicated real fast.

One of my friends says he LOVES the graph of truck tolls on toll roads. Not sure if he means the number of trucks or the total amount of tolls paid by trucks (since the toll roads raise the amount paid by each truck).

But it’s true that one year just is not adequate.
 
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