EU Collapse?

[gilliam]

CIA PREDICTS COLLAPSE:

THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: “The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role.”

It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its “slow-growth pattern”. . . .

The report says: “Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis.”

As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.

instapundit.com/archives/020607.php

 

[Trelow]

That’ll teach them to kill all their babies.

 

[Norwich]

gilliam:

CIA PREDICTS COLLAPSE:

THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: “The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role.”

It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its “slow-growth pattern”. . . .

The report says: “Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis.”

As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.

instapundit.com/archives/020607.php

Is this the same CIA that briefed Colin Powel on his address to the UN with lots and lots of photo’s of WMD’s?

Hmmm…

 

[jlw]

Norwich:

Is this the same CIA that briefed Colin Powel on his address to the UN with lots and lots of photo’s of WMD’s?

Hmmm…

Yes, indeed. The same one who came to the same conclusions at your British intellengence officers did.

Also, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist (or a spook) to figure out that Europe is in serious danger of economic collapse, save the UK, which despite it’s deepening welfare state, still holds on to a capitalist mentality.

Still, if you don’t have babies to grow up and produce wages to produce tax revenue, you have screwed your countrymen.

 

[Norwich]

jlw:

Still, if you don’t have babies to grow up and produce wages to produce tax revenue, you have screwed your countrymen.

Bad choice of words, but we’ll pass that one by.

British Intelligence? Officialy known as either MI5 or MI6. Stands for Military Intelligence. In English we call that an Oxymoron, or contradiction in Terms.
In the UK at present we have a programme running called “When Intelligence Fails” It shows the consequences of failed or just bad intelligence. If the level of the worlds intelligence services is only twice as good as that described we are all in trouble.
Unfortunately intelligence often falls into the trap of telling its political masters what they wan’t to hear, not what the should hear, why? well for a start who employs them? If “blowing the whistle” is so dangerous to individuals out in the normal world of commerce, how mush more dangerous when others percieve either a loss of their political power or, worse still, a perception of damage to their country, (real or imagined)? Would you be prepared, as an individual to stick your neck out?
One of the other problems of course is that those at the top of the intelligence ladder are, as often as not those furthest away from seeing the true picture. The ones most likely to know the truth behind a particular intelligence story are often the ones in the worst position to influence anyone.
Intelligence is a bit like the predictions, you only remember the ones they got right and forget the thousands they didn’t.

 

[jlw]

Norwich:

Bad choice of words, but we’ll pass that one by.

British Intelligence? Officialy known as either MI5 or MI6. Stands for Military Intelligence. In English we call that an Oxymoron, or contradiction in Terms.
In the UK at present we have a programme running called “When Intelligence Fails” It shows the consequences of failed or just bad intelligence. If the level of the worlds intelligence services is only twice as good as that described we are all in trouble.
Unfortunately intelligence often falls into the trap of telling its political masters what they wan’t to hear, not what the should hear, why? well for a start who employs them? If “blowing the whistle” is so dangerous to individuals out in the normal world of commerce, how mush more dangerous when others percieve either a loss of their political power or, worse still, a perception of damage to their country, (real or imagined)? Would you be prepared, as an individual to stick your neck out?
One of the other problems of course is that those at the top of the intelligence ladder are, as often as not those furthest away from seeing the true picture. The ones most likely to know the truth behind a particular intelligence story are often the ones in the worst position to influence anyone.
Intelligence is a bit like the predictions, you only remember the ones they got right and forget the thousands they didn’t.

Yeah, bad choice of words, sorry folks.

Norwich, I don’t necessarily disagree with your assesment of our intellegence community. We gutted our intellegence capabilities after the Cold War, and we have paid for it.

 

[Norwich]

jlw:

Yeah, bad choice of words, sorry folks.

Norwich, I don’t necessarily disagree with your assesment of our intellegence community. We gutted our intellegence capabilities after the Cold War, and we have paid for it.

Sadly I think almost everybody did the same. The result is that we now have a situation of fractioned thinking and actions based on various disparate pieces of intelligence interpreted 20,000 different ways, and then we wonder why we can’t agree between ourselves!!!

 

[Scullinius]

gilliam:

The report says: “Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis.”

Accommodating their growing Muslim populations is the LAST thing European nations should do. Do that, and they will cease to be European. And why does anyone believe that Turkey is a part of Europe? It’s called “Asia Minor” for a reason.

Scullinius

 

[rlg94086]

Norwich,

Now that you successfully discounted the CIA and diverted this thread to a discussion about intelligence…

What about the substance of the article? In the US, we have problems with the aging Baby Boomers about to hit Social Security age. Since I’ve read other articles about the aging popluation of Europe, I’m sure that the UK and the EU countries have similar concerns. Any panic? Any solutions?

Robert.

 

[Norwich]

Scullinius:

Accommodating their growing Muslim populations is the LAST thing European nations should do. Do that, and they will cease to be European. And why does anyone believe that Turkey is a part of Europe? It’s called “Asia Minor” for a reason.

Scullinius

I’m sorry? am I listening to someone from the country of the Green Card, if you ain’t got one you don’t work, where border patrols around the Mexican border have the right to SHOOT people trying to better themselves. The land where if you ask almost everyone comes from a European or other country background?

I wonder if your frightened for, or of, Europe?

 

[rlg94086]

Norwich:

I’m sorry? am I listening to someone from the country of the Green Card, if you ain’t got one you don’t work, where border patrols around the Mexican border have the right to SHOOT people trying to better themselves. The land where if you ask almost everyone comes from a European or other country background?

I wonder if your frightened for, or of, Europe?

I’m sorry friend, but you’ve been hoodwinked by some BBC propoganda. Shootings do happen at the border, but you paint a picture of border patrol shooting innocent people as they try to enter the country.

Border patrol is a very dangerous job. They do arrest people and send them back over the border, and they do get into fire fights with some of the criminal element.

God Bless,

Robert.

 

[Norwich]

Scullinius:

Accommodating their growing Muslim populations is the LAST thing European nations should do. Do that, and they will cease to be European. And why does anyone believe that Turkey is a part of Europe? It’s called “Asia Minor” for a reason.

Scullinius

Err… excuse me, Turkeys half in Europe and half in Asia Minor, that makes it closer to Europe than say, Hawaii is to the Mainland of the States, or even Alaska come to that. In Europe we tryu not to make distinctions on Race, Colour or Creed, think we may have learned that from you, have you forgotten already?

 

[Norwich]

rlg94086:

Norwich,

Now that you successfully discounted the CIA and diverted this thread to a discussion about intelligence…

What about the substance of the article? In the US, we have problems with the aging Baby Boomers about to hit Social Security age. Since I’ve read other articles about the aging popluation of Europe, I’m sure that the UK and the EU countries have similar concerns. Any panic? Any solutions?

Robert.

No, its a a building problem. We tend to tinker at the edges of the problem but I don’t have any solutions and being one of those so called baby boomers it’s quite worrying really. Probably have to keep working till I’m 90. Ho Hum…

ps. I’m glad you’ve also come to the conclusion theres no link between the CIA and intelligence as well.

 

[yochumjy]

Norwich:

Err… excuse me, Turkeys half in Europe and half in Asia Minor, that makes it closer to Europe than say, Hawaii is to the Mainland of the States, or even Alaska come to that. In Europe we tryu not to make distinctions on Race, Colour or Creed, think we may have learned that from you, have you forgotten already?

I’m much more interested in your views on the original article than if Turkey is part of Europe or Asia. Other than the original article, here is a second, though this is strictly on Germany, it has a similar theme.

forbes.com/columnists/free_forbes/2005/0131/037.html

 

[gilliam]

Norwich:

Is this the same CIA that briefed Colin Powel on his address to the UN with lots and lots of photo’s of WMD’s?

Hmmm…

No, this group is only associated with the CIA, not part of the agency itself. A lot more information here.

 

[Norwich]

gilliam:

No, this group is only associated with the CIA, not part of the agency itself. A lot more information here.

Interesting document, or should I say documents. With the availability of time I don’t have, it would probably take me a month to plough through this lot. Never the less looking at the summary document one or two pertinent points seem to jump out, (or maybe I’m being selective, it’s very hard to tell), still here goes:

• Third, immigrations – especially Muslim immigration – have been forecasted to threaten social cohesion. It has been called into the participants’ attention that tolerance based multi-culturalism cannot solve this problem and that a certain degree of integration into the political system and societies must take place to prevent social unrest. This seems to bear out my ongoing statements that to lessen the problems of terrorism one has to make the majority of “True” Moslems friends and not to alienate them.
• It has been suggested that to prevent such a happening the EU must have good relations with neighboring countries (Turkey, North Africa, the Ukraine), including aiding them and investing to their economies so as to make these economies work and tame the disillusionment of those who could not leave their countries. Had the EU proved unable to do so, this would undermine both internally and externally the EU as a political body. Ditto above*.*
• The accession of Turkey is projected to fundamentally change the EU-Muslim relations, as it would internalize the problem on a large scale. Some have warned that how the Muslim community will react also depends on how we look at them today: whether we treat them as terrorists or not. So far it seems to be making my argument for me.
• *Anti-Americanism in Europe has been thought to be overemphasized. In relation to this the view has been expressed that it is rather anti-Bushism than anti-Americanism. Some have disputed this view, pointing out that anti-American demonstrations happened in Europe during the Clinton Administration as well. *Now therein lies a tale!!!

I’m not going to follow this through at this time partly because I believe their is a 5,000 character limit on posts and partly because I have work to do on other projects.

I would only make the following observations on what I have read so far:

1. • The general gist of the summary is that Europe has to learn to live with its growing Moslem population.
   • The way to ensure safety for all its people, including the Moslems is to ensure they are integrated into society and not demonised or sidelined.
   • This action MUST START AS OF YESTERDAY.
   • America is still paranoid about criticism, even from friends.
   Sound about right?

 

[gilliam]

Norwich:

I would only make the following observations on what I have read so far:

1. 
   *]The general gist of the summary is that Europe has to learn to live with its growing Moslem population.
   *]The way to ensure safety for all its people, including the Moslems is to ensure they are integrated into society and not demonised or sidelined.
   *]This action MUST START AS OF YESTERDAY.
   *]America is still paranoid about criticism, even from friends.
   
   Sound about right?

1. 
   Not sure of the rush, but that is pretty close, as far as the EU and Moslems are concerned. The document goes into a lot more than the EU and also talks about other stresses upon the EU other than simply clashes in classes.

 

[HagiaSophia]

Apparently the EU is still debating over Turkey with only 5% of its lands in Europe:

"Opposition voices have been raised at the European Parliament (EP) against Turkey’s future membership.

The European Union (EU) Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn answered EP deputies at the Foreign Affairs Committee yesterday (January 19) and he faced many questions comparing Ukraine and Turkey. Some EU deputies have claimed that Ukraine is more qualified than Turkey for EU membership and called for membership negotiations to start quickly. One EP member asked, “While 40 million Christians are waiting at our door, why would we start negotiations with Turkey?”

while another member brought a comparison to the agenda saying that on one side, a country like Ukraine, with 100 percent of its lands in Europe, has not even been given a membership perspective while negotiations will begin with Turkey, which has only five percent of its lands in Europe. Rehn refrained from giving explicit answers and said that Ukraine for now is evaluated within the perspective of EU’s neighborhood policy. Meanwhile, the Turkey-EP Joint
Parliamentary Commission Co-Chair Joost Lagendjik emphasized that even though, Ukraine has been given a candidacy statute in a short time, it is impossible for it to become a member before Turkey. It is thought that Ukraine’s candidacy could be announced in 2005. "

zaman.com/?bl=international&alt=&trh=20050120&hn=15811

 

[Norwich]

HagiaSophia:

Apparently the EU is still debating over Turkey with only 5% of its lands in Europe:

"Opposition voices have been raised at the European Parliament (EP) against Turkey’s future membership.

The European Union (EU) Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn answered EP deputies at the Foreign Affairs Committee yesterday (January 19) and he faced many questions comparing Ukraine and Turkey. Some EU deputies have claimed that Ukraine is more qualified than Turkey for EU membership and called for membership negotiations to start quickly. One EP member asked, “While 40 million Christians are waiting at our door, why would we start negotiations with Turkey?”

while another member brought a comparison to the agenda saying that on one side, a country like Ukraine, with 100 percent of its lands in Europe, has not even been given a membership perspective while negotiations will begin with Turkey, which has only five percent of its lands in Europe. Rehn refrained from giving explicit answers and said that Ukraine for now is evaluated within the perspective of EU’s neighborhood policy. Meanwhile, the Turkey-EP Joint
Parliamentary Commission Co-Chair Joost Lagendjik emphasized that even though, Ukraine has been given a candidacy statute in a short time, it is impossible for it to become a member before Turkey. It is thought that Ukraine’s candidacy could be announced in 2005. "

zaman.com/?bl=international&alt=&trh=20050120&hn=15811

The problems of Turkish membership are a little more complicated and difficult. Most of the problems surround the status of Cyprus. The rest of the problems are flim flam. With the island split between Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots and the recent results of the Greek Cypriots voting against the re-intergration of the island whereas the Turkish Cypriots voted for intergration, the pressure has switched to including Turkey into the EU so as to exert pressure on Greece to, in turn, pressurise the Greek Cypriots into accepting union with the north. The isea being that two sovereign nations within the EU cannot be in a state of almost suspended war. (which technically they are).
It may seem a strange degree of effort for a small island in the middle of the mediteranean but it does hold a very strategic position between Europe and North Africa, this was recognised by the British in the 18th Century when the occupied it, and sadly created this whole problem in the first place. (ahh… the mistakes of history).
So generally this is a mess that someone, in this case the EU has to try and solve before it turns into a shooting match again. (ain’t politics simple?)

 

[HagiaSophia]

Norwich:

The problems of Turkish membership are a little more complicated and difficult.

I do think more than a few Europeans are also worried about floods of the Turkish population migrating into Europe if they gain EU status.