I pretend to no expertise on the subject. But this whole situation over there reminds me of nothing so much as the Indian Wars.
It seems to me that war with an implacable, primitive and vicious enemy involves employment of overwhelming and unremitting force, total destruction and the creation of much misery. It’s chasing the “Comanches” into their Palo Duro Canyon refuge, shooting all their horses, burning their tents and food supplies and leaving them utterly destitute. Then, and only then, one can tell them what they are to do next. Then, and only then, will they do it.
We’re not willing to do that.
Alternatively, one hires the Tonkawas to wage unremitting war on the Comanches,whom they already hate, keeps them armed and looks the other way while they wage a distracting war among themselves forever. There are those in Afghanistan who would do that.
We’re not willing to do that either.
If we get out, Iran will hire the Tonkawas and Pakistan will hire the Comanches. When Iran goes nuclear, neither the U.S. nor any other western power will ever venture to set foot there again. It will become a haven, not only for Al Quaeda, but for every other terrorist group on earth, just as it was before we got there. Now and then, Russia may drop a missile on some Chechen training camp, and we may drop a missile on some Al Quaeda training camp.
As little as it may seem so to many, Western Asia is an even more savage place than is the Middle East. Frankly, in my opinion, Obama sent the “surge” to the wrong place. There still is a chance that the line of at least some semblance of civilization may be drawn on the eastern border of Iraq, and we should try to ensure that happens. I think Bush was right in instituting “Round 2” of the Iraq War and in blasting the Taliban power structure. But having done the latter, he should have left, promising to return to do the same if the Taliban again conspired with anyone in any hostile act against the U.S.
But campaign rhetoric has a tendency to bind politicians into staying with bad choices.