Gingrich Thread

[gilliam]

Mr. Romney’s polls seem to be bending down a bit. Over the past week or two, we’ve seen a larger number of polls, both at the state and national level, that show him below rather than above 20 percent; the trend line from our graph, in fact, now has him at only about 18 percent overall. Considering that other Republicans have had their problems during this time period, I would call this trend at least mildly worrying for Mr. Romney’s campaign. I certainly consider Mr. Romney the clear favorite to win the Republican nomination, but these numbers do not exactly suggest that there is anything inevitable about it.


Herman Cain’s numbers have probably also been moving down slightly. After peaking at about 27 percent two or three weeks ago, the trend line now shows him at 23 percent. Still, we’re seeing quite a lot of variance from survey to survey for Mr. Cain — and it goes without saying that his numbers are likely to be volatile as voters sort out what they think about the sexual harassment allegations against him.



If Mr. Romney and Mr. Cain are on a somewhat downward trajectory, you’d expect to see another candidate gaining ground. And that candidate is, indeed, Newt Gingrich. He’s polling in the mid- to high teens in most recent surveys, with occasional forays into the 20s. Also, for whatever reason, his state-by-state polls have generally been better than his national polls, so if anything the national surveys may somewhat understate his momentum. This method now shows him at about 18 or 19 percent of the vote, meaning that he’s roughly tied with Mitt Romney.



Rick Perry had seemed to have halted his decline in the polls as of a few weeks ago, as he’s been polling fairly consistently in the high single digits in both state and national polls recently. Very little of this polling, however, has been conducted since Mr. Perry’s stumble in the debate on Wednesday night. In a week or so, we should have a better sense of how much it harmed him.



…

But the biggest piece of news here is Mr. Gingrich and his rise in the polls: he, Mr. Romney and Mr. Cain may now be in a rough three-way tie for the Republican polling lead. Polls certainly aren’t everything in a presidential primary, and for reasons I outlined earlier this week, Mr. Gingrich might have trouble maintaining his momentum as his campaign begins to receive more scrutiny. Still, it looks as if he’s going to enjoy his moment in the sun.
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/the-gingrich-surge-has-come/

I guess it was bound to happen as we cycle through the candidates. Newt’s million dollar week - dailycaller.com/2011/11/11/newt-raised-1-million-this-week/

POLL: NEWT MOVES INTO SECOND drudge.tw/rrrAUN

The big question is if he surges, will it last?

 

[meltzerboy]

Romney, Cain, Gingrich: quite a motley group they are. Maybe more Republicans are finally waking up to the fact Gingrich is the most intelligent and qualified of the lot, as well as being at least as electable as Romney. Like Paul, he also, for better or worse, speaks his mind. For political junkies, it would be a more exciting race, including the debates, if Gingrich were the GOP candidate.

 

[Aelred_Minor]

Given the alternatives, I welcome this.

 

[CMatt25]

And now we await another fall.

 

[gilliam]

And now we await another fall.

Probably. Newt doesn’t have the organization nor the money nor the popularity to win Iowa. The best he can hope for is a win in NH by some fluke, and then come in 2nd in FL. But I don’t see it happening… of course this has been a VERY unusual primary.

 

[KathleenGee]

We have to get those prayers going…that the Lord will bless the right candidates for our nation.

 

[BVM_1221]

I’ve lost track of how mnay Gingrich surges we have had in the past. Not to mention the surges of the other candidates.

GOP voters seem to be a flighty lot, and one wonders how all this will play out at the actual votes for the actual candidates to the GOP National Convention :coffeeread:

 

[havana1]

And now we await another fall.

I’m not so sure the American people want a president who divorced his ex-wife when she was in the hospital dying of cancer. That’s cold. (I’m referring to Newt, of course: I’m eager to see how he will explain it if it comes up in a debate. Next domino to fall.)

 

[Darryl1958]

Romney, Cain, Gingrich: quite a motley group they are. Maybe more Republicans are finally waking up to the fact Gingrich is the most intelligent and qualified of the lot, as well as being at least as electable as Romney. Like Paul, he also, for better or worse, speaks his mind. For political junkies, it would be a more exciting race, including the debates, if Gingrich were the GOP candidate.

He is a tested politician with a good track record. His personality and his personal life leave something to be desired, but maybe a lot of people are waking up to the idea that a president with loads of personality is not all that it is made out to be.

People elected Carter because he was a nice guy, who ran on an born-again Christian platform of honesty. 4 years of that was enough for most people before they decided that nice guys finish last.
There has never been a more charming couple in the White House than the Obamas, has there? The thing about Newt though, he is not a charmer. But he did bring some sound financial policies and direction to the Clinton era. It is hard to say if he can repeat that as president, but if he can’t, there is nobody else more qualified than he is anyway.

 

[OrdinaryMelkite]

I’ve lost track of how mnay Gingrich surges we have had in the past. Not to mention the surges of the other candidates.

GOP voters seem to be a flighty lot, and one wonders how all this will play out at the actual votes for the actual candidates to the GOP National Convention :coffeeread:

They just want ANYBODY who is NOT Romney and can BEAT Obama.

 

[gilliam]

Most Republicans who are interested in the election right now know Newt’s past. But it would be a liability in the general election. Personally, I don’t think he will get anywhere near the general election. Not enough money, no organization. But this is a very odd election year.

 

[OrdinaryMelkite]

I’m not so sure the American people want a president who divorced his ex-wife when she was in the hospital dying of cancer. That’s cold. (I’m referring to Newt, of course: I’m eager to see how he will explain it if it comes up in a debate. Next domino to fall.)

Not to mention he admitted to committing adultery in one of his SEVERAL marriages. As a good Catholic, though, he has confessed (I assume) and gotten absolution.

People also forget that staunch Democrats will NEVER (again, NEVER) forget or forgive the fact that he was one of the main opponents of Clinton’s policies during his presidency. Plus, he was one of the folks who spearheaded the Impeachment. That is one of the ultimate SINS in the Democratic List of No-Nos. And if Newt becomes a major front-runner, I guarantee you that will be brought up by the media and Democratic consultants.
Count on it to be implied…

My take.

 

[Semper_Zelare]

Most Republicans who are interested in the election right now know Newt’s past. But it would be a liability in the general election. Personally, I don’t think he will get anywhere near the general election. Not enough money, no organization. But this is a very odd election year.

Newt has the most hired staffers in South Carolina of any candidate. Romney has 2 and Cain has 4, Bachmann has 7,Perry HAD 7 (lol), while Newt has 9. He’s opening the state headquarters there Monday.

Plus he won on the night of the recent debate; bc in addition to his performance he got a super PAC to start up. It already released an ad; its called Solutions 2012.
politico.com/news/stories/1111/68069.html

This is also no more odd than 2008. What you are doing now is effectively saying: : “John McCain will get nowhere near the nomination; he has no money or organization compared to Giuliani.”

For all intensive purposes, Newt is following the path of John McCain. I think polls would be very similar from 2007 if compared to the ones of fall 2011.

 

[7_Sorrows]

i think newt has done well in the debates and proved that he has some good ideas and proved that he should be taken seriously. i am sorry for the attacks on herman cain and this might cause him to drop a bit in the polls, but, hopefully, he will recover. i think the american public still haven’t made up their minds yet as to who is the strongest candidate to beat obama in 2012. hopefully, i the next 4 months we will have a clearer idea.

 

[TexCatholic4JMJ]

I’m not so sure the American people want a president who divorced his ex-wife when she was in the hospital dying of cancer. That’s cold. (I’m referring to Newt, of course: I’m eager to see how he will explain it if it comes up in a debate. Next domino to fall.)

This story has been refuted by Newt’s daughter. By the way, his that ex-wife is
alive today.

 

[CMatt25]

Probably. Newt doesn’t have the organization nor the money nor the popularity to win Iowa. The best he can hope for is a win in NH by some fluke, and then come in 2nd in FL. But I don’t see it happening… of course this has been a VERY unusual primary.

VERY is sort of an understatement.

 

[Iquisitor81]

If a man cannot stay faithful to his wife, then how can anyone ever trust him?

Surely there is a candidate who hasn’t cheated on their wife?
Has our political class sunk that low?

 

[didymus]

Not to mention he admitted to committing adultery in one of his SEVERAL marriages. As a good Catholic, though, he has confessed (I assume) and gotten absolution.

That’s nice.
The last time I looked Reconciliation confers grace, it doesn’t make up for a lack of integrity nor prevent relapses.

As a Catholic I am glad Newt has got right with God and I wish him well. As a voter I have every right to judge him by his past & my rule of thumb is “people don’t change”.

 

[nathan_oc]

I like old Newt, but every time I hear him talk about climate change I get sick to my stomach.

GINGRICH: No, it was just dumb. I was trying to do something I failed to do. I do think it’s important for conservatives to be in the middle of the debate over the environment. I actually don’t know whether global warming is occurring. The vast majority of the National Academy of Science says it is; a minority says it is not. Science is not actually voted on; science is a function of truth.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2011/11/09/newt_says_pelosi_ad_was_mistake

 

[The_Rock]

This story has been refuted by Newt’s daughter. By the way, his that ex-wife is
alive today.

Thank you TexCatholic.
Here is his daughter’s article; “Setting the Record Straight” by Jackie Gingrich Cushman.
They were already planning on getting divorced, as requested by Newt’s wife. We as Catholics should try not to repeat calumnious accusations.

townhall.com/columnists/jackiegingrichcushman/2011/05/08/setting_the_record_straight
It is this visit that has turned into the infamous hospital visit about which many untruths have been told. I won’t repeat them. You can look them up online if you are interested in untruths. But here’s what happened:

My mother and father were already in the process of getting a divorce, which she requested.

Dad took my sister and me to the hospital to see our mother.

She had undergone surgery the day before to remove a tumor.

The tumor was benign.

I believe people do change, or rather that God changes people. I would be willing to wager that many here on CAF have experienced a conversion at some point in their lives. If anyone is interested here is Newt’s conversion story…

ncregister.com/daily-news/newt-gingrich-why-i-became-catholic/