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Xantippe
Guest
The calculations kind of don’t matter, because he’s encouraging people to invest 15% of income in retirement and to be debt-free, have 3-6 months of emergency savings, and to have paid off homes. If you do all of that stuff, honestly, it doesn’t matter what the stock market return is going to be–you’ll be OK.Not all of Dave Ramsey’s investing advice is as solid as his advice on budgeting and getting out of debt, and this is a good example. If I recall correctly from listening to his radio show, he typically uses 12% as his hypothetical annual return on investments, when he calculates how retirement savings will grow over time. This rate is overly optimistic, in my opinion. Perhaps someone who makes a large initial investment in a retirement account at a time when the stock market is very low might see that type of annual return over their lifetime, but I don’t think that most people will.
His calculations also don’t take inflation into account, as far as I know. For example, even if you could get an average annual return of 12%, you have to subtract the average annual rate of inflation to get your real return. So if you make 12% per year, but inflation is 4% per year, then your real return is more like 8%.
For my own calculations, I prefer to err on the side of being too pessimistic rather than too optimistic, and I think that projecting a 12% annual return is on the optimistic side.