For me, I don’t look at the historicity of the Exodus as being something to be proven on the basis of “here’s evidence of a bunch of people wandering through the desert for 40 years.” Heck, we couldn’t even figure out what had happened to the Lost Colony of Roanoke within 3 years of their disappearing, and they’d left a message.

But rather, I look at it from the Egyptian side of things, especially in relation to the 10th Plague.
With the Death of the Firstborn, Pharaoh did not die. So if we were to pin it into history, what pharaoh was not an eldest son and presumptive heir, who succeeded his father, and was himself not succeeded by an eldest son?
That, of course, would be Amenhotep II. He was born to a minor wife, and his elder brother, Amenemhat, was the heir presumptive. But it was Amenhotep II who became pharaoh. And his own successor was Thutmose IV, who as we know from the famous Restoration of the Sphinx and the Dream Stele, we also know he wasn’t first-in-line either.
A second issue would be a pharaoh who possibly died or disappeared abruptly from the historical record, based on whether or not he died at the Red Sea crossing along with all his chariots. And that matches up with Amenhotep II again… if you take a look at some
stele inscriptions regarding the Asiatic campaigns.
Me, I like the Amenhotep II theory because it puts it within a century of Akhenaten. So a lot of the drama-llama that went along with it might not have been so much of “can’t lose these valuable slaves!” but perhaps had a lot to do with Theban priests clinging to their temporal power, and having a very strong feeling of deja vu, not-this-again.
But even over the last 150 years, for a culture that’s as well-documented as Egypt, our understanding has come leaps and bounds. One of my books by Budge, for example, pins Amenhotep II to 1566 BC… go ahead and compare that to our
current understanding of the timeline.