Horowitz: One chart exposes the lie behind universal lockdowns associated with Corona Virus

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ProVobis said:
Depends. If we as a society look at it as an opportunity to redesign airplanes, stadiums, etc, there will be more comfort for those attending. That would be a benefit IMO. Baseball stadiums weren’t always packed like canned sardines and they made money.
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The LA Dodgers and the NY Mets/Yankees draw around 50k people on average to each game. I’m not sure what kind of design will allow them to cut capacity in half and charge everyone double will result in a good bottom line for any of these franchises. Multiply that by popular NFL, NBA, NHL and MLS franchises. Throw in college football and basketball. None of these changed for those that existed at the time following the 1918 pandemic nor the 1957, the 1968 and the 2009 pandemics.

The shrinking violets have got to let go the rest of us. Or they will find our ability to support them severely curtailed for years. Nothing is keeping you from staying home; nothing is keeping us from devoting resources to protecting the vulnerable. But let the rest of us make a living as we did in 1957, 1968 and 2009.
 
Zzyzx_Road said:
But let the rest of us make a living as we did in 1957, 1968 and 2009.
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When did something like Bergamo happen in 1957, 1968 or 2009? Can you give an example of a place that saw all-cause deaths go up even 4-fold (whereas in Bergamo it was more like 6-fold)? Maybe there was, but I don’t know of it.

I agree that people aren’t giving up the experience of going to ballparks and stadiums, not unless this kind of disease–one that has both a high degree of transmissibility and a significantly higher death rate than influenza typical of the last 20 years taken together–starts rearing its head somewhat more often.
 
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PetraG said:
When did something like Bergamo happen in 1957, 1968 or 2009? Can you give an example of a place that saw all-cause deaths go up even 4-fold (whereas in Bergamo it was more like 6-fold)? Maybe there was, but I don’t know of it.
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Maybe not that one individual instance. But 100k people died in 1968 in a population of 200m. As I said, that would be the equivalent of 160k in today’s population. That’s not nothing. People had more backbone then.
 
PetraG said:
This was done because services that weren’t essential had to give up PPE to services treating COVID-19. You can’t have people treating a serious infectious disease having to use their PPE as they were.
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This happened because the hospitals were told to curtail non-Covid-19 care because it was anticipated they were going to get overloaded with Covid-19 cases. But in several hundred hospitals across the country, the expected huge caseloads did not materialize. But in the meantime, there went the workers because their employers did not have the cash flow to keep them working.

Now what was the original point about flattening the curve again?
 
Back bone?

The deaths for the 1969 pandemic cover a spsn between 1968-1970.

We’ve got 90,000 deaths in a two month span.
 
Zzyzx_Road said:
Maybe not that one individual instance. But 100k people died in 1968 in a population of 200m. As I said, that would be the equivalent of 160k in today’s population. That’s not nothing. People had more backbone then.
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Well, those hot spots are what is causing all the hand-waving. This virus spreads fast enough that it can get out of control really fast when you don’t have a way to test for it. When it outruns the PPE the local hospitals have, you start seeing health care workers dying of it (like the 33 year old doctor in Wuhan that the police tried to silence when he said publicly that human-to-human transmission was occurring and the pneumonia the infection caused was extremely serious).
 
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ProVobis said:
Even allowing for possible underreported COVID-19 deaths elsewhere (of up to 60%), it looks bad for the U.S.
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I truly don’t know. Is there really something that makes Covid much worse and more pervasive in the first world, or is it more a matter of attention, testing and reporting that makes it seem so.
 
Zzyzx_Road said:
100k dead in a population of about 200m which be the approximate equivalent of 160k dead in our current population.
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Is that the number inferred or the number of deaths from diagnosed cases. Typically, post-pandemic the number reported is inferred form the excess deaths. That is often an order of magnitude higher than the actual count of deaths from diagnosed cases, IN the course of the pandemic - like now - only the latter figure is available, You may be comparing apples and oranges,
 
They employed social distancing in 2018. And we don’t have a true figure. Governor’s and businessmen reopening are not interested in accurate counts. Neither is Trump.
 
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dvdjs said:
Is that the number inferred or the number of deaths from diagnosed cases. Typically, post-pandemic the number reported is inferred form the excess deaths. That is often an order of magnitude higher than the actual count of deaths from diagnosed cases, IN the course of the pandemic - like now - only the latter figure is available, You may be comparing apples and oranges,
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A fair amount of inference is going on with Covid-19 as well. Or have you seen the debates regarding cause of death to put on the death certs?

The point is, they didn’t kill the economy then.
 
The situation in California

https://twitter.com/x/status/1261861847667363841

Now the data are incomplete, to be sure, but this echoes with what my relatives in LA and other southern California counties have been telling me all along: no one there knows of any hospitals that are filled to capacity with Covid-19 patients. Some are busier than others to be sure. But overall they aren’t full. Not even close. But LA County was just slapped with an indefinite extension. This ain’t about flattening the curve anymore.

This keeps up there will be recall movements there. Not without precedent in California history.
 
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In a pandemic like this you try never to be near capacity or utilize all your PPE resource.
 
I read an article looking at how isolation ends historically. The rare cases are due to medical reasons…the pathogen weakens or disappears. The majority reason is exhaustion over isolating and the populace just accepts the risks and deaths that go along with it.

We seem to be reaching the exhaustion point, not the medical one. Sigh…
 
Zzyzx_Road said:
A fair amount of inference is going on with Covid-19 as well.
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Actually very, very little as compared to the standard method for reporting on seasonal flu.
Zzyzx_Road said:
The point is, they didn’t kill the economy then.
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The point is that they didn’t have to.
The number of deaths was small enough to avoid overwhelming health care without the lockdown.
In this case wed needed to introduce strong mitigation measure to keep just to avoid catastrophe.
 
It was a fair risk assessment when made. We still have not experienced much of the death this virus will account for
 
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