Iowa: Paul closes in on Gingrich

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There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.

publicpolicypolling.com/.a/6a0133f2dd8001970b0154383f9b8f970c-800wi
Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he’s also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he’s now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%.

publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/paul-closes-in-on-gingrich.html

Is Iowa Completely Up In the Air? -
 
It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if Paul were to take Iowa and Newt not meet the expectations bar set for him in recent wks. It will depend on who turns out. But then short of Huntsman winning Iowa, almost nothing is going to surprise me coming out of the Iowa GOP caucus this yr. I won’t be surprised either, short of Mitt winning the early Republican rounds with a knock out punch, if this is a prolonged battle. Mitt himself said he is prepared for it to be so just the other day. We’ve seen it on the Democratic side. As recently as 08 between Obama and Hillary and 84 between Mondale and Gary Hart are 2 that come to mind.
 
CMatt25 said:
It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if Paul were to take Iowa and Newt not meet the expectations bar set for him in recent wks. It will depend on who turns out. But then short of Huntsman winning Iowa, almost nothing is going to surprise me coming out of the Iowa GOP caucus this yr.
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[sign] Agreed [/sign]
 
I often wonder about the polls, mainly because a lot of Paul’s support comes from younger voters without landlines. I suspect that in every state–assuming the younger voters come out and vote–Paul will outperform his poll numbers.
 
CMatt25 said:
Gilliam, what do you suppose happens to what has been Newt’s growing support in recent wks in NH, SC, and FL should he underperform in Iowa and not win?
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I am not sure many people pay much attention to what happens at the IA caucuses.

NH is suppose to be Romney turf, so Newt underperforming there is not a big deal although I suspect he should come in within the top 3 to be viable going forward

However, SC is the South, if Newt underperfomrs in the South, it will hurt him going forward.

The Republican field will probably narrow after NH (you may see Huntsman dropping out for example.) Depending on what happens, you may see the field narrow even more after SC.

If I had to guess who would be going into FL, my guess would be Romney, Gingrich and Paul

my 2-cents which may not be worth that in this crazy primary

Your thoughts?
 
Ron Paul today called for the firing of Attorney General Eric Holder over Fast And Furious. Hope it helps his numbers.
 
gilliam said:
I am not sure many people pay much attention to what happens at the IA caucuses.

NH is suppose to be Romney turf, so Newt underperforming there is not a big deal although I suspect he should come in within the top 3 to be viable going forward

However, SC is the South, if Newt underperfomrs in the South, it will hurt him going forward.

The Republican field will probably narrow after NH (you may see Huntsman dropping out for example.) Depending on what happens, you may see the field narrow even more after SC.

If I had to guess who would be going into FL, my guess would be Romney, Gingrich and Paul

my 2-cents which may not be worth that in this crazy primary

Your thoughts?
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I thought voters inclined to be voters in early primary states might be paying attention. But even so not everyone is a political junkie and Iowa doesn’t always have a big bounce anyway. I will be curious to see how the media plays Newt if he does not win Iowa after his surge in recent wks and how losing Iowa would affect his fundraising, if at all. Romney from what I hear has the money. I did see this today on even Huntsman’s path to victory. I didn’t want to start a new thread with it though because I know the mod frowns upon blogs as sources for news story threads. But don’t worry I’m not going to make you an offer to bet $10,000 that there will be anyone in FL not already on your list. 😃 In any case the weeks ahead should be interesting as the race moves fwd.

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/12/jon-huntsmans-path-to-victory/
 
CMatt25 said:
I thought voters inclined to be voters in early primary states might be paying attention. But even so not everyone is a political junkie and Iowa doesn’t always have a big bounce anyway. I will be curious to see how the media plays Newt if he does not win Iowa after his surge in recent wks and how losing Iowa would affect his fundraising, if at all. Romney from what I hear has the money. I did see this today on even Huntsman’s path to victory. I didn’t want to start a new thread with it though because I know the mod frowns upon blogs as sources for news story threads. But don’t worry I’m not going to make you an offer to bet $10,000 that there will be anyone in FL not already on your list. 😃 In any case the weeks ahead should be interesting as the race moves fwd.

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/12/jon-huntsmans-path-to-victory/
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I respect Nate Silver a lot, and realize he likes to play long shots. However, Republicans are not going to nominate an Obama appointed ambassador as a presidential candidate in 2012. No way, no how.
 
This is going to be interesting

Paul has survived Santorum (remember his premature surge when he announced his cadidacy in June)

He made it through the days of Bauchman

He outlasted Perry

He withstood Cain

All for one reason: No one in the media paid him any attention because they thought he was too kooky to be a threat.

As a result the latest anti-Romney is facing attacks from all sides. He has a huge history to comb over and he is prone to shooting from the hip when it comes to making inflammatory (yet attractive to some people) statements. Ingram dosent think he is a conservative and Romney already enlisted the aid of Ann Coulter. IF newt goes down all that is left is the most consistent candidate in the race. Grab your popcorn
 
Birdpreacher said:
This is going to be interesting

As a result the latest anti-Romney is facing attacks from all sides. He has a huge history to comb over and he is prone to shooting from the hip when it comes to making inflammatory (yet attractive to some people) statements. Ingram dosent think he is a conservative and Romney already enlisted the aid of Ann Coulter. IF newt goes down all that is left is the most consistent candidate in the race. Grab your popcorn
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Paul is in a different class from those you mentioned. He has absolutely no chance of being nomiinated as the Republican candidate for POTUS. He will continue to run as long as his long time supporters keep feeding him cash.
 
gilliam said:
Paul is in a different class from those you mentioned. He has absolutely no chance of being nomiinated as the Republican candidate for POTUS. He will continue to run as long as his long time supporters keep feeding him cash.
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I dont know he is still getting a lot of questions in the debates and if Newt fails to withstand the media onslaught thats coming (a la Herman Cain) then I believe Paul has a puncher’s chance of winning the whole shebang
 
Birdpreacher said:
I dont know he is still getting a lot of questions in the debates and if Newt fails to withstand the media onslaught thats coming (a la Herman Cain) then I believe Paul has a puncher’s chance of winning the whole shebang
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Ah, no.

If Newt fails, it will be probably be Mitt. Paul’s “ceiling” nationally is at best in the low teens. In Iowa maybe 20%.
 
Birdpreacher said:
This is going to be interesting

Paul has survived Santorum (remember his premature surge when he announced his cadidacy in June)

He made it through the days of Bauchman

He outlasted Perry

He withstood Cain

All for one reason: No one in the media paid him any attention because they thought he was too kooky to be a threat.

As a result the latest anti-Romney is facing attacks from all sides. He has a huge history to comb over and he is prone to shooting from the hip when it comes to making inflammatory (yet attractive to some people) statements. Ingram dosent think he is a conservative and Romney already enlisted the aid of Ann Coulter. IF newt goes down all that is left is the most consistent candidate in the race. Grab your popcorn
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When I think of Ron Paul and public opinion, it reminds me of Archbishop Sheen’s quote about there are not 100 people who hate the Catholic Church, but millions who hate what they perceive it to be.
 
gilliam said:
Ah, no.

If Newt fails, it will be probably be Mitt. Paul’s “ceiling” nationally is at best in the low teens. In Iowa maybe 20%.
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Romney has never beaten an anti-Romney: The Media has unseated all the other contenders. If Newt is out why would people flock to the guy they have been avoiding all race long?

Romney knows they dont like him as a candidate, thats why he is running on the “Best shot at beating Obama” Platform. Not the I am a better conservative than these guys platform
 
bbarrick8383 said:
When I think of Ron Paul and public opinion, it reminds me of Archbishop Sheen’s quote about there are not 100 people who hate the Catholic Church, but millions who hate what they perceive it to be.
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What do you mean? Are you saying that more people would like Paul or hate him if they knew his policies.

Personally I find the man to be oddly interesting, like a large flightless bird. Very entertaining to watch.
 
Birdpreacher said:
What do you mean? Are you saying that more people would like Paul or hate him if they knew his policies.

Personally I find the man to be oddly interesting, like a large flightless bird. Very entertaining to watch.
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Not necessarily knew them but also took the time to understand them and put faith into them. Like the Catholic Church, they are accused of worshiping Mary or praying to the saints, Dr. Paul often get’s accused like we’ve seen here of feeding at the trough of government handouts, or being accused of being an isolationist because he didn’t support a certain free trade deal and wants to close down overseas bases.

Whenever I check into the accusations against him, I always find a very honest explanation from the man. Much like I do when I research information about the Catholic Church. Around here I can walk up to anyone and tell them I’m interested in Catholicism and each time I’ll get a story about something they believe that Catholics believe.

Dr. Paul’s fault is he is honest, and people are use to having honest politicians. They are use to being lied to or having them beat around the bush and so they expect the same with him.
 
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