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estesbob
Guest
Back in the old days we called it -weather
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ralfyman
New member
“What is the difference between weather and climate?”
oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/weather_climate.html
“Media Reports The World Will Enter A ‘Mini Ice Age’ In The 2030’s. The Reverse Is True.”
thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/13/3679662/global-warming-speed-up-not-ice-age/
oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/weather_climate.html
“Media Reports The World Will Enter A ‘Mini Ice Age’ In The 2030’s. The Reverse Is True.”
thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/13/3679662/global-warming-speed-up-not-ice-age/
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estesbob
Guest
Weather is what you get the update on at the 10 o’clock news. Climate change is a Trojan horse for taking more your money and giving the government more control over your life
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ephesians4
Guest
Events like this can kill on a huge scale, drive whole species to extinction and wreak terrible destruction. I’m doing everything I can to increase my carbon footprint, as every bit of extra heat could help to alleviate the destruction to our environment in the years to come.
If you are an MMCC denier you should probably do nothing, since you probably don’t believe carbon footprint will have an effect.
If you are an MMCC denier you should probably do nothing, since you probably don’t believe carbon footprint will have an effect.
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estesbob
Guest
I am going to be do my Part-I am going to get a bigger truck!
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tomarin
Guest
Thus neatly solving our obesity crisis.
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styrgwillidar
Guest
Perhaps there is an underlying community instinct that a mini-ice age is coming and we’re building up our insulation and food stores to deal with it.
To answer the original question, 'Is a mini ICE AGE on the way?
likely, Yes
and a warm period similar to the medieval and Roman peried
and a major ice age.
I have no idea when, since the world has cycled between those situations they are likely to occur again.
ralfyman
New member
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ephesians4
Guest
So in summary, if you are obese and drive trucks and/or muscle cars, we should all probably commend you on your forward thinking (blubber = survival of the fittest), your sense of civic duty and your environmental savvy…
Loving these developments to be honest.
Loving these developments to be honest.
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lynnvinc
Guest
I actually put this question about the short-term (11 year) solar cycles leading to a mini ice age to the climate scientists (re “Solar activity predicted to fall 60% in 2030s, to ‘mini ice age’ levels: Sun driven by double dynamo” – Science Daily summary of Valentina Zharkova’s research at sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm)
Here is Gavin Schmidt’s (a top climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies) response:
[Response: It’s a 60% reduction in the magnitude of the solar cycle (not solar activity), and it’s not obviously terrible. It’s a statistical projection with no physics, so the extent to which it’s believable is unclear. The connection to a new ‘mini ice age’ is completely made up. That level of change in solar forcing is about -0.1W/m2, which would be made up in just 3 years of current CO2 concentration growth. – gavin]
Here is some more info that might help from my own assessment, based on what I know:
This recent study presented at a conference (National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, Wales) only alludes to the 11 years solar cycle with one of the solar minima becoming especially deep, having a stronger than normal cooling effect. And after the 11 to 15 years the solar cycle then reverses to its maximum, causing greater warming.
The enhanced greenhouse effect from our GHG emissions will be having an even greater warming effect by 2030, so either that deep solar minimum and enhanced GH effect will cancel each other out, with no net increase in temps for 11 to 15 years; or there will be a slight cooling impact or slight warming impact, depending on which forcing is greater, after which the warming will continue (assuming we don’t drastically reduce our emissions or invent some effective way to draw down the CO2).
CO2 lasts in the atmosphere for a very long time, compounding as we add more. A small portion of CO2 can stay up there even for 100,000 years (see realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/03/how-long-will-global-warming-last/).
It seems that conference presentation doesn’t mention anything at all about the greenhouse gas forcings, only the short-term solar activity, which is an inexcusable oversight, since the greater and much longer term forcing is the CO2 and the greenhouse effect it increases.
Here is a graph that shows the solar cycles (bottom), the global average temps, and the increasing CO2 in the atmosphere…the temps track the solar cycles up until about 1980, then start tracking the CO2 levels.
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lynnvinc
Guest
Actually the sun is getting hotter and hotter on its way to self-destruction in several billion years. However, that trend is extremely slow and doesn’t play any significant role in the current global warming (which is happening lickity-split in geological time). “The Sun is gradually becoming hotter during its time on the main sequence…” (see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun#Main_sequence )
These short-term solar cycles of about 11 years are just minor fluctuations of greater and lesser solar irradiance. See en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle
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Trident_H
Guest
Actually I think Ice Ages are caused by unusually cool summers.
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lynnvinc
Guest
That’s a good question. I’ll have a go at it.
Weather is the short-term and local conditions of temp & precipitation, etc.
Climate is the statistical aggregate over time and a larger region (on up to global climate). I remember seeing cartoons about people moving to “sunny California,” and when they got to the border it was raining cats and dogs on the California side & was dry and sunny on the Arizona side
I have this atlas from the 1970s with a climate map of the various regions throughout the world. It is still fairly accurate, despite global warming. Here is the plant hardiness zones of 1990 and 2012 (not much difference):
(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)
The important point is that it takes a very long time for climate to change – so all this nonsense about the warming has paused for the past 17 years is a bunch of nonsense. The overall trend over the past 30 or so years has been a definite warming.
I think people just aren’t used to complex systems with more than 2 variables…
ralfyman
New member
“There Probably Won’t Be A ‘Mini Ice Age’ In 15 Years”
iflscience.com/environment/mini-ice-age-not-reason-ignore-global-warming
iflscience.com/environment/mini-ice-age-not-reason-ignore-global-warming
So remember.
If you don’t like a set of facts, ignore them.
One can always come up with different statistics.
Otherwise no one would believe no warming for 17 of 30 years is really warming.
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estesbob
Guest
So true- remember the models were very important until they failed and then we were ignorant for thinking they’re going to work . AGW is the greatest field of science to be in-even when you’re wrong it proves you are right.So remember.
If you don’t like a set of facts, ignore them.
One can always come up with different statistics.
Otherwise no one would believe no warming for 17 of 30 years is really warming.
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sps49
Guest
These complex systems with more than two variables have no closed form solutions; they are not solvable. There are extremely narrow and constrained models of these systems that may be estimated by iterative methods, but they are not a practical example of the physical systems represented.
Humans exist in these complex systems and do quite well due to their adaptive nature. For example, they tend to move away from the constant drone of pseudo science vomited forth by ill tempered climate activists.
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lynnvinc
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It even fluctuates from year to year. So anyone can find two recent years in which the global average temp went down, then wrongly claim AGW is not happening. It’s not going to be strictly increasing and that doesn’t bother the scientists at all. However, they do like to understand why it goes down one year and up the next, etc, and they usually can explain it from the several variables that impact climate.So remember.
If you don’t like a set of facts, ignore them.
One can always come up with different statistics.
Otherwise no one would believe no warming for 17 of 30 years is really warming.
But I guess science is now a free-for-all brawl without any standards and no need of scientists with expertise working in the field. We live in a post-modern anti-science time.
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sps49
Guest
I am all for standards. Why are the climate models not held to the same objective standards that mission critical software is? If they want to use the models as a basis of policy decisions that control the economies of entire nations, then it is reasonable for objective standards be used for design, construction and performance of these constructs.
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lynnvinc
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You are expecting way too much from the models – they have put in the various factors which they can quantify and create formulas for, and they cannot predict everything in advance, like when there will be a volcano, etc. They do the best they can and come close to actual results (much closer than the denialists’ flat-line projections, which are way off). The models sometimes underestimate the warming a bit and sometime overestimate, but the overall trend over many decades is pretty close. And they keep tweaking the models as more knowledge and evidence comes in. Maybe if this solar minimum study pans out with more support (than just a conference paper), they may be able to include that…
However, models cannot include the “known unknowns” such as how much CH4 & CO2 will be released from melting permafrost and ocean hydrates and at what rates over time, etc. So those positive feedbacks are left out, which means the models in fact are grossly underestimating the warming that will be occurring.
We are basically heading for runaway warming or hysteresis conditions, such as happened in the end-Permian great warming when 95% of life on earth died out. IF people continue to be obstinate and refuse to mitigate AGW.
The scientists also cannot say when we will reach that tipping point of no return, or whether we may have already reached it. They think we don’t have many years left.
This anti-life attitude, the reckless disregard for people and progeny truly amazes me.
Story of my life. As a kid I was amazed and shocked by how the kiddies didn’t follow what they learned in Sunday school, but were mean and bad, and as a near-retiree, I’m still shocked by the evil in this world. Why can’t people try good for a change? See if it works better for them.
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