[continued]
I’m certain that given a whole world of warm watery places and a couple of million years, such an organism is not only possible, but inevitable. As I have said before, given enough tries, throwing ten sixes in a row is not unlikely, it is inevitable. But only provided the initial conditions provide those opportunities. This is where I see the hand of God, not in the self assembly itself, but in the provision of the initial conditions.
A couple of thoughts on the throwing of the die which it seems is often used as an example for the probability of evolutionary theory. First, probability as in the throwing of a die does not exactly equal certainty or inevitability. The very word ‘probability’ generally refers to something likely or unlikely to happen for instance, not that it is certain to happen. For example, the chances of throwing a six or any other number of the die on one throw is a fraction, 1/6 or 16.66…%. The decimal places go on to infinity. No matter how many throws of the die, the probability mathematically considered of throwing any one number, for example a 6, will never equal 1 or 100%. Albiet, the more throws the more it is probable or likely a 6 will turn up eventually.
Secondly, you state ‘given enough tries, throwing ten sixes in a row is not unlikely, it is inevitable.’ Beyond what I just mentioned above and according to the mathematical probabilities of throwing a die, do more throws of a die actually increase or decrease the probability of getting the same digits in a row (ten 6’s) or any other pattern? In this vein, in ‘Catholicism and Evolution’, Fr. Michael Chaberek says:
‘The larger the probabilistic resources (more throws of a die) the less probable it will be to get the same digits in a row, or any other pattern. With each extra throw, the total number of appearances of each digit will tend to approximate more closely 1/6 of the total number of throws. This fact diminishes (not increases) the possibility of getting any spectacular, that is, meaningful outcome.’
Without getting into the mathematical computations here, I trust Fr. Chaberek did his homework and what he says makes common sense to me. Thus, it seems that according to mathematical probability theory concerning ‘chance or random’ events as in the case of throwing a die or evolutionary theory, time, whether in millions or billions of years, does not favor evolutionary theory but rather diminishes the probability of the supposed ‘chance’ events to have occurred in any meaningful pattern or design which we observe today whether on earth or in the heavens.