Is Manmade Global Warming Real?

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:D:D

Explain why Mr Mann After being shown his algorithm was faulty and why ] Continued to use such? Why refuse to hire a Statistician to review his stats / maths?

As smart as you say Mr Mann is…I can only conclude, he does it intentionally. 🤷
Maybe it took him a long time to finally understand the mistake he made. There is the issue of ego-investment. We all are at least a bit guilty of that.

And since the underlying reality was correct (as Kama has so well pointed out–and I’m at least aware of some 4 or 5 other non-tree-ring proxies that support the hockey stick), Mann is not guilty of misleading, only of being a bit stubborn in not admitting his mistake.

No harm done to us, only perhaps to his own soul (if what you say is correct).

And what about our own souls and our stubborn ego-investment in lies and half-truths (another name for lies). We should also think about that during this Lenten season.

I have chosen to accept climate science even years before it reached 95% confidence in 1995, and do the prudent thing of mitigating AGW – it turns out through cost-effective measures (bec my husband didn’t want to sacrifice), saving us $1000s over the years. I would like to really believe the climate scientists are wrong, but I know enough about the GH effect from 50 years ago and since, that their decades of studies make utmost sense to me; and I’ve made it a point to study the science fairly closely. With my knowledge I cannot fail to do whatever I can to reduce my impact and reduce my harms to people. And if it turns out they were wrong, or the extremely low-end projections are the ones that pan out and no harm done to anyone, then Halleluia, praise be to God for His great goodness.

And no harm done – I’ve saved a lot of money by mitigating, and I’ve helped to reduce other problems such as local pollution, acid rain, and resource depletion.
 
Maybe it took him a long time to finally understand the mistake he made.
I don’t think you’ll get very many people, who have researched with an objective mind, to believe the GATEKEEPERS - IPCC - CRU - Mann - Jones - Briffa - Hansen - Wang In all, there were 7 main and 43 closely related ( Dependant upon in pal-reviewing ) base et al quadrant.org.au/magazine/issue/2010/7-8/the-tree-ring-circus made “mistakes”.
And since the underlying reality was correct
The “reality” was that Observational Evidence says - Tree Rings diverge from actual history and the AGW hypothesis! As does sediment , Ice Core and woolly worm proxies.
and I’m at least aware of some 4 or 5 other non-tree-ring proxies that support the hockey stick),
Which?
 
Maybe they are right and you are wrong. Something to consider.
Or maybe kimmie is right and you are wrong, or maybe both of you are wrong and aliens did it. Something to consider.

I really dislike posts like yours above; I don’t mind rhetoric in and of itself, but I do mind it if that rhetoric is empty of content.:sad_yes:
 
Or maybe kimmie is right and you are wrong, or maybe both of you are wrong and aliens did it. Something to consider.

I really dislike posts like yours above; I don’t mind rhetoric in and of itself, but I do mind it if that rhetoric is empty of content.:sad_yes:
It’s not at all empty content, but the very heart of the matter for us laypersons who have to make decisions about what to do about anthropogenic global warming.

If Kimmie is right, but the people think he’s wrong and we reduce our GHGs so it gets below 350 ppm in the atmosphere, that is the very best scenario – we save money without lowering living standards or productivity; the economy improves (becomes more efficient, staying much closer to the PPF (production possibilities frontier)); we mitigate a host of other environmental problems (since most GHG emissions also go along with other types of harmful and toxic emissions, etc); we save resources for future generations; we save potable water for everyone (pumping and heating water usually involved GHG emissions, so using water more efficiently/conservatively is helpful all around); we perhaps reduce the cause of wars and conflicts (by using fossil fuels and other resources more efficiently/conservatively); we improve our health and reduce crime (by some of us offsetting a bit of car driving with bicycling or walking); we have more time for family (by moving closer to work). It’s the ultimate win-win-win-win situation and without any horrors of AGW, such as increased tornado & hurricane intensity (coming now in off-seasons), droughts, floods, disease spread, land loss from sea rise; stronger neg arctic oscillations (and $billions in winter crop destruction in N. Mexico and my area); heat stress and death for people, animals, and plants; species extinction; loss of food productivity; disruption of the glacial/snowpack cycle that irrigates a lot of farmland and bring potable water during summer; and other such life-harming and killing disasters. This is known as the FALSE POSITIVE…the very best that can happen to us.

If Kimmie is right and we believe him and fail to mitigate AGW, then we lose all the above benefits and continue to engage in life harming activities, bec I guess only a truly serious problem like AGW would have gotten us off our duffs into action, and we are naturally lazy???–one wonders why in the name of God we are not seriously mitigating AGW by doing all the sensible measures that would help mitigate it and many other problems, even if we think it is NOT happening. TRUE NEGATIVE.

If Kimmie is wrong, but we don’t believe him, and we mitigate AGW, then we not only avert a very serious problem, but also benefit in these many other ways. The sad part is some scientists are saying there is already 2.4C warming in the pipes, even if we were to reduce to zero right now, so there will be still be alot of harm from AGW, even if we take the strictest reduction path. This is the TRUE POSITIVE.

If Kimmie is wrong and we believe him and fail to mitigate AGW, the repercussions would be extremely serious and either result in climate hysteresis and loss of a tremendous portion of life on earth, including harm and death to much of humanity (if you could call it that, since they failed to address a true catastrophe). Or, it could even mean runaway warming and the end of all life on earth, since solar irradiation has slowly been increasing over the millions of years since our last hysteresis episodes, and our exceedingly rapid (in geological terms) AGW, along with this increased irradiation, might just be enough to snuff out all life. This is the FALSE NEGATIVE…the very worst of all scenarios. Sort of like failing to believe in God and Hell, when these are real.

So the decision is up to us whether or not to believe an anonymous blogger and Exxon/Koch funded denialist henchmen or the 1000s of climate scientists who say AGW is real, despite a few minor mistakes they may make (which do not disprove AGW), which are caught by the scientific, self-correcting process.

Whether to risk life on earth because of what some blogger is saying, or whether to give the climate scientists the benefit of the doubt, even if we have our own doubts and they fail to cross some "t"s or dot some "i"s, because we prudently seek to do God’s will and live a righteous and upright life, and because we can’t abide the idea of contributing to the harm and death of our fellow humans and the rest of God’s biota.
 
It’s not at all empty content, but the very heart of the matter for us laypersons who have to make decisions about what to do about anthropogenic global warming.
Nice try…🙂

Do you understand the difference between Normal Science and Post-normal Science pseudo-science ]?

1 There is no Pascals Wager in Normal Science.
2 There are no Philosophical " False Positive" "False Negative’ arguments in Normal Science.
3 Consensus means nothing in Normal Science.
4 There is no ad hominem fallacies in Normal Science.

Normal Science stands or falls on Observational repeatable ] empirical evidence.

ANYTHING LESS - Is a religious belief… pseudo-science -post-normal science ] AND you prove this every time you use 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 listed above, in your arguments.

As long as you say you’ve studied the “science” in AGW - CAGW claims…it seems to me, a lazy persons out when you attempt to defend your belief in AGW- CAGW claims…without using Normal Science procedures?🤷

You can claim Post-normal science belief - philosophical arguments ]… Or Normal Science empirical evidence - BUT YOU CAN’T MIX THE TWO - THEY ARE OPPOSITES.🙂

Without the observational empirical evidence of Normal Science…Your personal beliefs - philosophical debates…are subjective speculations.
 
ALBEIT: Normal Science is not a “consensus:”

I thought I’d post just how Post-normal Science gets their figures.

On the 1000’s claim:
How do we know there’s a scientific consensus on climate change? Pundits and the press tell us so. And how do the pundits and the press know? Until recently, they typically pointed to the number 2500 – that’s the number of scientists associated with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those 2500, the pundits and the press believed, had endorsed the IPCC position. [1]
**To their embarrassment, most of the pundits and press discovered that they were mistaken – those 2500 scientists hadn’t endorsed the IPCC’s conclusions, **they had merely reviewed some part or other of the IPCC’s mammoth studies. To add to their embarrassment, many of those reviewers from within the IPCC establishment actually disagreed with the IPCC’s conclusions, sometimes vehemently.
On the 97% claim:
This number will prove a new embarrassment to the pundits and press who use it. The number stems from a 2009 online survey of 10,257 earth scientists, conducted by two researchers at the University of Illinois. The survey results must have deeply disappointed the researchers – in the end, they chose to highlight the views of a subgroup of just 77 scientists, 75 of whom thought humans contributed to climate change. The ratio 75/77 produces the 97% figure that pundits now tout.
Methodology of the 97% Claim:
The two researchers started by altogether excluding from their survey the thousands of scientists most likely to think that the Sun, or planetary movements, might have something to do with climate on Earth – out were the solar scientists, space scientists, cosmologists, physicists, meteorologists and astronomers. That left the 10,257 scientists in disciplines like geology, oceanography, paleontology, and geochemistry that were somehow deemed more worthy of being included in the consensus. The two researchers also decided that scientific accomplishment should not be a factor in who could answer – those surveyed were determined by their place of employment (an academic or a governmental institution). Neither was academic qualification a factor – about 1,000 of those surveyed did not have a PhD, some didn’t even have a master’s diploma.
To encourage a high participation among these remaining disciplines, the two researchers decided on a quickie survey that would take less than two minutes to complete, and would be done online, saving the respondents the hassle of mailing a reply. Nevertheless, most didn’t consider the quickie survey worthy of response –just 3146, or 30.7%, answered the two questions on the survey:
75 people

fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/12/30/lawrence-solomon-75-climate-scientists-think-humans-contribute-to-global-warming/

probeinternational.org/ipcc-flyer-low%5B1%5D.pdf

probeinternational.org/library/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/012009_Doran_final1.pdf

wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/21/gmu-on-climate-scientists-we-are-the-97/
 
Science stands or falls on Observational repeatable ] empirical evidence.
Well, it seems you haven’t been up to date on climate science. Empirical evidence has been in since 1995 at the .05 (95% confidence).

RE that evidence, there are lots of factors that impact weather and climate, so it was a very difficult road of finally being able to find the signal from the “noise,” but they did by 1995. And the empirical evidence has been mounting ever since.

And, of course, there is the evidence from over 100 years ago that the earth should have been a lot cooler, except for the greenhouse effect. This a long-established evidence-based scientific knowledge.

And you are very wrong about science. It is not only evidence based, but also theory based, otherwise it is just superstitions, magic, and myth. People have been observing nature right from the get-go and have explained what they’ve repeatedly observed by the “science” of the day…like the sun is a firebird (made sense at the time), and it goes over the sky of a flat earth (not the other way around).

So now that you accept the evidence as well as the theory, case closed. (Now you are going to ask for my sources so you too can read them – so I’ll let you in on some secret knowledge…start with the premier science journals and just keep reading.)

Now let’s get to work mitigating AGW before it’s too late and we doom our progeny. Personally, I and JPII did not need .05 on the null (or 95% confidence) to get started back in 1990 – just the knowledge of the greenhouse effect and the knowledge that we were emitting lots and lots of GH gases, and there had been some warming (tho not quite at the sci certainty level), and increased warming could lead to lots of harm and death of people was plenty enough not to risk such great harm and death. We, at least, do not gamble with people’s lives.

Now, if you all are tight-wads, like us, then I’d suggest doing only those things that either don’t cost or save you money long-run. That should be able to get you down to a 30% to 60% reduction.

Have fun!
 
Here’s something to consider: What if the hockey stick were wrong? Wrong on all proxies, etc. (which it is not), but even if it were & there were greater warming periods within the past 1000 years, that does NOT disprove AGW – it only shows that GW can happen:
realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/01/what-if-the-hockey-stick-were-wrong/

I strongly urge those of you here who would spend a lot of time and effort to dissuade people from reducing their GHGs (and other pollutants), to please read the legitmate science, and not the bizarro science found on denialist blogs. Let us do the prudent thing and address this problem. Please let us not dissuade others from doing their part to reduce.

No one has to swelter in the dark or work on a chain gang. It really doesn’t hurt to prudently take measures to reduce GHGs, even if one is not entirely convinced AGW is happening. There is much joy in doing God’s will, and His will is that we do what is right, and certainly not obstruct or dissuade others from doing what is right. If we have doubts, then let us read what JPII and BXVI have to say – that it is our responsibility to reduce our GHGs.
 
In 1970s in Poland, winter temperatures around -30C were common. Nowadays, if it drops to -20C, people call it a disaster.
You’re going to have to document that. But even if so…it is a mere drop in the bucket when looking at the overall climate. Climate cycles can be long and take decades…centuries…a millenia and longer. And these cycles are all intertwined within each other.

Certainly AGW is a farce.
 
So the decision is up to us whether or not to believe an anonymous blogger and Exxon/Koch funded denialist henchmen or the 1000s of climate scientists who say AGW is real, despite a few minor mistakes they may make (which do not disprove AGW), which are caught by the scientific, self-correcting process.
Hi Lynn,

The problem in Mann’s case was that his errors were not caught by the “scientific, self-correcting process.” Mann’s shoddy work sailed on through the “pal-review” process (Kimmie’s accurate description) with no due diligence. Then it was given prominence in the next IPCC report because Mann chaired that section and passed on his own work.

The scrutiny came from outside the climate science establishment. The full extent of the Mann’s errors were uncovered despite his refusal to fully reveal his data and methods, and despite the efforts of journal editors like the late Stephen Schneider and IPCC politicos like Susan Solomon to circle the wagons around Mann.

No, the climate science establishment does not deserve your trust. They do not deserve the benefit of the doubt.
 
Well, it seems you haven’t been up to date on climate science. Empirical evidence has been in since 1995 at the .05 (95% confidence).
Lynn, what zactly do we know at the 95% confidence level?

Kil
 
I strongly urge those of you here who would spend a lot of time and effort to dissuade people from reducing their GHGs (and other pollutants), to please read the legitmate science, and not the bizarro science found on denialist blogs. Let us do the prudent thing and address this problem. Please let us not dissuade others from doing their part to reduce.
Please 'splain how one distinguishes between “legitimate” vs “bizarro” science.
 
Hi Kim,

Yes, the surface temp records worldwide are highly suspect. With guys like Hansen, Jones and Karl in charge of the data, one can’t take them at face value. And they’ve been caught too many times adjusting, fudging, and just making up the data. Just another example of how the climate science establishment is corrupt and can’t be trusted.

Kil
Not only that…temperatures are mostly taken at airports and urban areas that have become more densely populated. This has skewed temperature averages compared to a hundred years ago. AGW is a myth.
 
Hi ado!

Lynn, you said:
No one has to swelter in the dark or work on a chain gang. It really doesn’t hurt to prudently take measures to reduce GHGs, even if one is not entirely convinced AGW is happening. There is much joy in doing God’s will, and His will is that we do what is right, and certainly not obstruct or dissuade others from doing what is right. If we have doubts, then let us read what JPII and BXVI have to say – that it is our responsibility to reduce our GHGs.
The global warming movement is driven by some very unsavory elements such as one world government types, population control nuts, extreme environmentalists and outright commies. So don’t be so quick to jump on that bandwagon.

From the get-go we have been encouraged to listen to the consensus, but we have ample evidence that the mainstream climate establishment is not trustworthy. And besides, in the past, mainstream consensus science has proved distastrous for mankind . For example, after Rachel Carson’s raising the hue and cry against DDT, it de facto became banned world-wide. There was no scientific justification for a complete ban. The result: tens of millions of deaths from malaria. So let’s keep the focus on the truth, not mindless trust in the scientific consensus when we’ve been given ample reason to distrust it.
 
Even the rhetoric of scientists within the climate science mainstream betrays their ideological, not scientific, bent. James Hansen is the worst example. Naomi Oreskes, one of the perpetrators of the myth of scientific consensus (famously cited by Gore in AIT), betrays her bias when she portrays any skepticism as and “attack on science.” Since when did skepticism against the majority opionion become an attack on science itself? Another gross violator is Eugenie Scott, whose organization has made defending mainstream climate science one of its pet projects (along with trashing creationism and intellegent design). Folks, this ideology, not sober and objective science.

Getting back to Oreskes, her tactic is to explain away all skepticism as being rooted in left-over Cold War and fee market ideology. Has she ever read anything by Richard Lindzen, Roy Spencer, Bob Carter,…" Are they all funded by the Koch Bro’s? Fer cryin out loud!
 
Sorry folks…I have to rant a bit. I’m a meteorologist of 32 years. While I’ve been ignored…I think I something to offer. But then again…when did science come into play?
 
Well, it seems you haven’t been up to date on climate science. Empirical evidence has been in since 1995 at the .05 (95% confidence).
This statement, of yours, is very revealing. It shows just how little you know of Normal Science.

1 Produce the observational empirical evidence.
2 Do you know the difference between observational empirical evidence and “guesstimates”?
3 Have you even read the IPCC guidelines? unfccc.int/files/meetings/unfccc…/ipcc_good_practice_guidance.ppt OR “IPCC Good Practice Guidance” in Google Doc
Make expert judgments
Be prepared to make expert judgments and explain those by providing a traceable account of the steps used to arrive at estimates of uncertainty or confidence for key findings — e.g. an agreed hierarchy of information, standards of evidence applied, approaches to combining or reconciling multiple lines of evidence, and explanation of critical factors.
Be aware of a tendency for a group to converge on an expressed view and become overconfident in it [3]. Views and estimates can also become anchored on previous versions or values to a greater extent than is justified. Recognize when individual views are adjusting as a result of group interactions and allow adequate time for such changes in viewpoint to be reviewed.
4 Since the IPCC has not revealed the working groups / chapters methods of determining likelihood, one could hypothetically conjecture a situation where 5 scientists voted for a likelihood of 95% for an event and 4 scientists voted against that level and so the reported likelihood gets a worded version of 95%. What if the 4 dissenting scientists thought the likelihood for that event was 50% — or less?..So just who had this confidence?

5 People listening to what they are saying will use their guidelines to interpret the numbers as meaningful scientific results as opposed to what they actually are your usage is my evidence ] – some unknown persons opinions of self-held opinions. If IPCC is using some sort of fuzzy probability methodology, then certainly the world is entitled to know what they did and how it was done. Unfortunately, my suspicion is that there is no scientific process involved and their traditional lack of transparency serves to hide that fact.

6 What happens when confidence levels don’t match?
cdn2-b.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/image_full_width_scaled/hash/ed/c5/edc53437ac100c840502ae1cd05e5829.jpg
Figure 4. Climate model 95% confidence range of projected surface temperature trends of varying lengths (gray area) and the expected values for these trends assuming the temperature in the coming year is similar to the temperature in 2008 (black line). (Dr. Patrick J. Michaels)
7 The people JW ] who put out The Watchtower - have a 99.999% confidence level in it…What is lacking is Observational Empirical evidence.

YOU SAID
And you are very wrong about science. It is not only evidence based, but also theory based, otherwise it is just superstitions, magic, and myth.
In Normal Science - The hypothesis is made FIRST - It then goes to a Theory stage The search for observational evidence in support of the hypothesis ]…WITHOUT Observational Empirical Evidence…It stays an unproven hypothesis.
So now that you accept the evidence as well as the theory, case closed. (Now you are going to ask for my sources so you too can read them – so I’ll let you in on some secret knowledge…start with the premier science journals and just keep reading.)
Want to compare my climate related data base with yours? I have never NOT BEEN ABLE to pull up a PDF ,or resource, for my claims. We still wait for you to reference your claims outside of the echo-chambers.🙂
 
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