Is Manmade Global Warming Real?

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If we have doubts, then let us read what JPII and BXVI have to say – that it is our responsibility to reduce our GHGs.
Produce your evidence - you can’t and you know it. You have tried to song and dance this for months now - you have been consistently asked for references…YET, you carry on. 🤷

They have called us to be Good Stewards of ALL creation…

I personally don’t care about what you believe in - I await references and observational empirical evidence for your claims…ALL else is just your subjective speculation.
 
Even the rhetoric of scientists within the climate science mainstream betrays their ideological, not scientific, bent. James Hansen is the worst example. Naomi Oreskes, one of the perpetrators of the myth of scientific consensus (famously cited by Gore in AIT), betrays her bias when she portrays any skepticism as and “attack on science.” Since when did skepticism against the majority opionion become an attack on science itself? Another gross violator is Eugenie Scott, whose organization has made defending mainstream climate science one of its pet projects (along with trashing creationism and intellegent design). Folks, this ideology, not sober and objective science.

Getting back to Oreskes, her tactic is to explain away all skepticism as being rooted in left-over Cold War and fee market ideology. Has she ever read anything by Richard Lindzen, Roy Spencer, Bob Carter,…" Are they all funded by the Koch Bro’s? Fer cryin out loud!
👍👍
 
Hi Lynn,

The problem in Mann’s case was that his errors were not caught by the “scientific, self-correcting process.” Mann’s shoddy work sailed on through the “pal-review” process (Kimmie’s accurate description) with no due diligence. Then it was given prominence in the next IPCC report because Mann chaired that section and passed on his own work.

The scrutiny came from outside the climate science establishment. The full extent of the Mann’s errors were uncovered despite his refusal to fully reveal his data and methods, and despite the efforts of journal editors like the late Stephen Schneider and IPCC politicos like Susan Solomon to circle the wagons around Mann.

No, the climate science establishment does not deserve your trust. They do not deserve the benefit of the doubt.
So your point is we should just allow AGW to happen and kill off large chunks of life on earth bec Mann wasn’t up to snuff on stats (even though his results oddly enough came out pretty close to correct), and bec climate scientists (like everyone else) are a bit touchy about extreme criticism, including vicious ad hominens and death threats.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, even if the hockey stick were wrong on all proxies (which it is not), and it were more like a sine wave with a greater than present warming some other time within the past 1000 years, that does NOT disprove current AGW – it only shows that GW can happen, as do the PETM and end-Permian great warmings that killed off plenty of life:
realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/01/what-if-the-hockey-stick-were-wrong/

I like to consider the bigger picture, not just some errors here and there that do not disprove anything – the hockey stick is basically correct, despite Mann’s errors, the glaciers will eventually melt with continued AGW, if not by 2035 – only that it is human to err.

Now, please, let’s get on to mitigating this problem. Let’s put our energy and imagination and efforts into that, rather than finding ways to dig deeper holes in which to bury our heads.

Do the denialists here really hate life so much, they are willing to risk it bec they don’t like some behavior of some scientists.

Or, if there were no scientists would that mean the sun doesn’t shine or GHGs don’t cause warming?
 
Ado,

Welcome to the fray. Please give us your meteorological slant on this, even if in rant mode.
 
So your point is we should just allow AGW to happen and kill off large chunks of life on earth bec Mann wasn’t up to snuff on stats (even though his results oddly enough came out pretty close to correct), and bec climate scientists (like everyone else) are a bit touchy about extreme criticism, including vicious ad hominens and death threats.
You do realize the people you are addressing don’t believe in AGW right? I think it is putting words in their mouths to say they believe we should let AGW happen. The whole point of the thread is to discuss IF AGW has happened, is happening, will happen, or could happen.
 
Ado,

Welcome to the fray. Please give us your meteorological slant on this, even if in rant mode.
I’m off to bed since I Have to get up at 4am. But I will contribute in the morning. Climate is very complicated and since the industrial revolution the change has been very small.

God bless
 
So your point is we should just allow AGW to happen and kill off large chunks of life on earth bec Mann wasn’t up to snuff on stats (even though his results oddly enough came out pretty close to correct),
IPCC under Manns heavy direction in AR4 - did NOT project the last 17 year slump in rising temperatures - now did it?
As I mentioned in an earlier post, even if the hockey stick were wrong on all proxies (which it is not), and it were more like a sine wave with a greater than present warming some other time within the past 1000 years, that does NOT disprove current AGW –
No but lack of Observational empirical evidence - sure goes against what AGW - CAGW - IPCC projected. AND the weight scientific ] is much heavier for Observational evidence…than model projections.
I like to consider the bigger picture, not just some errors here and there that do not disprove anything – the hockey stick is basically correct, despite Mann’s errors,
No…His graphs don’t stand up as accurate Climate ** history**. Which they purport to be…Follow the pea
the glaciers will eventually melt with continued AGW, if not by 2035 – only that it is human to err.
If we continue coming out of the ICE Periods…The glaciers will melt - with or without AGW.

Glacier melt has been proven to be from Black Carbon Soot ] - Land usage - AND is a REGIONAL phenomenon…NOT GLOBAL NOT CO2 - AGW
Do the denialists here really hate life so much, they are willing to risk it bec they don’t like some behavior of some scientists.
Typical:D

You can’t even define what I’m supposed to be denying? 😃
 
Lynn, please don’t call me a denialist. Snot nice and is suggestive of things I am sure you don’t intend to convey.

No, let’s don’t get on to mitigating “the problem” because a reasonable person isn’t sure it is a problem. And let’s get precise. What zactly are we so 95% sure about?

My point isn’t that “we should just allow AGW to happen and kill off large chunks of life on earth bec Mann wasn’t up to snuff on stats.” Rather, we shouldn’t trust the climate science establishment (of which Mann is significant part) when they tell us that AGW will kill large chunks of life on earth, this for the reason that the Hockey Stick affair exposed the seamy underside of the climate science establishment and gives us ample reason to doubt their claims. And this was just one case. We haven’t begun to catalog the sins of all de udders.

The Hockey Stick was important to the movement because it got rid of the Medieval Warm Period. I don’t care how many reconstructions they do which show a hockey stick. Have these studies been audited? Who did the study? What about all the other evidence of a world-wide MWP? Have they been taken into account? Seems to me evidence like a warm Greenland and other world-wide phenomena trump ideological-driven reconstructions using questionable statistics and dubious assumptions.
 
The Hockey Stick was important to the movement because it got rid of the Medieval Warm Period. I don’t care how many reconstructions they do which show a hockey stick. Have these studies been audited? Who did the study? What about all the other evidence of a world-wide MWP? Have they been taken into account? Seems to me evidence like a warm Greenland and other world-wide phenomena trump ideological-driven reconstructions using questionable statistics and dubious assumptions.
Sorry if I offended. I’ll be more cautious.

Climate scientists agree there was a MWP, though they point out it seemed to be more a regional, not world-wide, phenomenon – note that Greenland is in the North Atlantic, the region that experienced the warming. And just because there was a MWP (even if it were later found to be world-wide) does not mean there could not be any warming today. Or just because something else caused the warming back then, like wobble or orbit or solar irradiation (or whatever), does not mean it is impossible that our GHG emissions might be causing GW today.

There have actually been much greater warming periods than the MWP, like the PETM and end-Permian (during which over 90% of life on earth died out). This is not news to the climate scientists; in fact it helps them put parameters on the issue.

I find nothing seriously wrong with the climate scientists and their studies, except for a few mistakes that get corrected – nothing that disproves AGW. That’s the scientific process…it is on-going and advances over time with better data and better theories.

Climate scientists also helped correct a mistake made by a skeptic statistician (I think the same one who found the Mann mistake) who didn’t realize the celsius scale temps were interval data, not ratio (with at true zero), and did some wrong stats (supposedly disproving AGW) by not first converting the data to the kelvin scale. The help and corrections go in both directions. And since it seems God intended us to live in interdependent societies and help each other, I see nothing wrong in that.

(BTW, the hockey stick idea came well after I had come to understand AGW was real and dangerous back in the late 80s, so it is not really essential to my understanding about today’s current GW, which is based on my knowledge of the GH effect, which I learned about some 50 years ago, well before GW became an issue (political or otherwise); the temp data since the late 1800s; knowledge about past warmings and coolings; and how warmings would contribute to droughts in Africa, etc. That for me is plenty enough to turn out lights not in use – even without the hockey stick.)

I’ll continue to mitigate (not only to reduce my harm from AGW, but also doing so mitigates many other problems and has saved me $1000s over the past 22 years).

I would hope that you and others would join me in my effort to reduce GHGs (and other pollution), even though you may be skeptical of AGW, just to be on the safe side and to reduce other problems and realize the good savings to be had.

I wouldn’t ask anyone to sacrifice or lower their living standards, just the things that either have no cost, break-even, or save money in the short or long run. Whatever is doable and feasible.
 
Climate scientists agree there was a MWP, though they point out it seemed to be more a regional, not world-wide, phenomenon – note that Greenland is in the North Atlantic, the region that experienced the warming.
Following Lynn’s pea…
Climate scientists agree there was a MWP
Then why try to hide it…IPCC and CRU…Jones… Mann etc did so - ? You try to make these people sound like honest brokers of Science - they were / and continue wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/19/crus-new-hadcrut4-hiding-the-decline-yet-again-2/ to prove they are not.
though they point out it seemed to be more a regional, not world-wide, phenomenon
Actually no…That was an** unsupported claim ** made to justify their erasure of historic knowledge…AND even bigger scientific sin… of not even investigating their unsupported claim.
note that Greenland is in the North Atlantic, the region that experienced the warming.
IPCC’s - CRU’s pea shuffling…

We KNOW that was a ** deliberate ** pea shuffle.
And just because there was a MWP (even if it were later found to be world-wide) does not mean there could not be any warming today.
Following your pea…

The denial / distortion and treatment of MWP was for one reason…To give undue credit to the word “UNPRECEDENTED”
Or just because something else caused the warming back then, like wobble or orbit or solar irradiation (or whatever), does not mean it is impossible that our GHG emissions might be causing GW today.
If what they AGW’ers ] use as an excuse for it happening back then… wobble / solar etc ]…why IGNORE “wobble / solar etc” today? It was definitely STRONG enough evidence for AGW’ers to use as evidence for MWP WITHOUT CO2.

Are they saying CO2 overrides / stopped 'wobble and solar" etc? BECAUSE that is what you are trying to say.

Scientific logic says:
If CO2 doesn’t override - abate… wobble or solar etc.
If Wobble and Solar had that much effect as to cause MWP - then adding what they claim as the Main driver of Temperatures CO2 ]…the combined effects would be GREATER.
There have actually been much greater warming periods than the MWP, like the PETM and end-Permian (during which over 90% of life on earth died out).
Another try 🙂

PETM doesn’t apply to the unproven hypothesis of AGW - ONLY MWP and Little ICE Age.
I find nothing seriously wrong with the climate scientists and their studies, except for a few mistakes
The statement alone is “seriously wrong”.

“MISTAKES” are unintentional.
“MISTAKES” are corrected and retracted.
“MISTAKES” don’t hide from FOI

“DELIBERATE” is intentional.
“DELIBERATE” is mired with transparency and data hiding actions.
“DELIBERATE” is not retracted… just look at the debunked papers still held…such as the Jones - Wang 1990 papers ]. climateaudit.org/2007/06/18/did-jones-et-al-1990-fabricate-its-quality-control-claims/

wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/01/climategate-intensifies-jones-and-wang-hid-chinese-station-data-issues/

wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/01/climategate-grows-to-include-other-research-institutions/

STILL IN USE to defend against UHI
Climate scientists also helped correct a mistake made by a skeptic statistician (I think the same one who found the Mann mistake)
Another pea shuffle…attempt.

The Statisticians work was completely transparent…Data - Methods etc;

NOTHING of the DATA - Methods… BY IPCC - CRU - Mann - Hansen - Briffa - Jones - Bradly et al…was intended to see the LIGHT of DAY!

It remains that way today! wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/19/crus-new-hadcrut4-hiding-the-decline-yet-again-2/ Sources within link.
 
No number of quoted stats or cited “experts” will ever be able to prove AGW, as far as I’m concerned. The beauty of climate is that when it’s cold in one place, it’s warm in another. For every stat you throw me that says that the earth is warming I can find one that’s saying that the earth’s climate is cooling or staying the same. No scientist’s opinion will hold much weight with me either, since university’s are some of the most censored and politically “correct” institutions in the world today.

What does speak to me, however, are the evils that accompany the climate change movement. Socialism, which is condemned by the church, is necessary to regulate people’s lives to the degree that is necessary to obtain any meaningful reductions. Contraception, which is condemned by the church, will be necessary to inhibit fertility rates thereby reducing our population and curtailing our nation’s carbon footprint.

The most dangerous and scary aspect of the climate change movement, however, is the tendency for it to turn humanity’s focus inwards instead of outward. A person’s primary focus needs to be towards his neighbour and improving the condition of his fellow man through love and an outward self-giving. Following the logic of the climate change movement, however, would lead one to an unnatural belief that improving the condition of our fellow man can be made through witholding of self and inaction in our daily lives. Did our Lord not say: Be fruitful, multiply and go forth and subdue the earth? Inaction and inward tendencies run contrary to human charity and are objectively self-centered in nautre.

The climate change argument sounds very much like the work of Satan. Remember, the devil has angelic intelligence and know’s quite well how to twist humanity’s good intentions to do evil.
 
No number of quoted stats or cited “experts” will ever be able to prove AGW, as far as I’m concerned. The beauty of climate is that when it’s cold in one place, it’s warm in another. For every stat you throw me that says that the earth is warming I can find one that’s saying that the earth’s climate is cooling or staying the same.
Which is why we don’t take opinions of bloggers over the arduous studies of scientists…
No scientist’s opinion will hold much weight with me either, since university’s are some of the most censored and politically “correct” institutions in the world today.
You mean many universities are heavily funded by industries like Exxon, Koch, and Shell, and scientists in them have to tow the line & struggle to “disprove” or throw doubt about climate change, and quash anyone on campus who dares to talk about it. I know. That’s been my experience over and over. And don’t get me started on their influence in the media, gov, and churches…
 
What does speak to me, however, are the evils that accompany the climate change movement. Socialism, which is condemned by the church, is necessary to regulate people’s lives to the degree that is necessary to obtain any meaningful reductions. Contraception, which is condemned by the church, will be necessary to inhibit fertility rates thereby reducing our population and curtailing our nation’s carbon footprint.

The most dangerous and scary aspect of the climate change movement, however, is the tendency for it to turn humanity’s focus inwards instead of outward. A person’s primary focus needs to be towards his neighbour and improving the condition of his fellow man through love and an outward self-giving. Following the logic of the climate change movement, however, would lead one to an unnatural belief that improving the condition of our fellow man can be made through witholding of self and inaction in our daily lives. Did our Lord not say: Be fruitful, multiply and go forth and subdue the earth? Inaction and inward tendencies run contrary to human charity and are objectively self-centered in nautre.

The climate change argument sounds very much like the work of Satan. Remember, the devil has angelic intelligence and know’s quite well how to twist humanity’s good intentions to do evil.
Fears of socialism, birth control, and Satan do not lend proof that there is no anthropogenic climate change, but these do reveal why people are afraid to even consider that ACC may be real.

Failing to mitigate climate change is a serious disregard for our neighbors and the poor around the world. What motivated me to get on board 22 years ago was the idea that CC had been increasing droughts and famine in Africa. I just wish other Catholics had such concern for their fellow humans, enough to overcome their fears about CC.

Failing to mitigate climate change may possibly lead to socialism, anarchy, and choas and conflict (or some combo of these), as food productivity slides into serious reductions and potable water becomes scarce. And that would create a horrible “devil’s playground.”

Furthermore, I have never ever called for socialism – I don’t even like Cap & Trade (which is based on a capitalist model), bec it would be ineffective and just put money in the pockets of the fossil fuel industries. I’ve only called for voluntary actions, and at most “Fee & Dividend,” in which ALL the modest fees collected from oil and coal would be divied up and given back to the people…who could use them to pay their slightly higher energy costs, or to become energy/resource efficient/conservative & go to alt energy and really be on the road to wealth and prosperity (while reducing the harm to people and God’s creation).

I do not call for contraception or abortion. I’ve been fighting against abortion for over 40 years, and have been against it for 55 years (many years before I even became a Catholic). I make it a point to tell people that it doesn’t make sense for people to kill children in order to save the world for the children.

Why don’t you Catholics who are skeptical about CC get on board and join me in my Catholic approach to addressing ACC, instead of standing on the sidelines throwing muck at us, and striving to derail us from our mitigating ACC. I’m sure it would please God very much to show how much you care about His people and creation.
 
Why don’t you Catholics who are skeptical about CC get on board and join me in my Catholic approach to addressing ACC, instead of standing on the sidelines throwing muck at us, and striving to derail us from our mitigating ACC. I’m sure it would please God very much to show how much you care about His people and creation.
Hi Lynn,

I am just not convinced that human CO2 emissions are causing dangerous global warming, and even if that proposition were true, it is far from clear that drastically cutting our CO2 emissions will have a significant effect. The costs of implementing drastic CO2 reduction measures also have to factored in to our decision-making as well.

And here is another way to look at mitigation efforts, one from a social justice perspective. How many little African babies are we condemning to die in poverty because we in the rich western world will prevent them from developing their cheap coal-fired electricity? A solar panel on every hut just doesn’t cut it.

Along these lines, consider the human cost of the war on DDT. Human deaths from malaria skyrocketed after DDT use was sharply curtailed. Tens of millions of 3rd world children suffered horribly or died of a preventable disease, all because of an environmental scare. It turned out the environment can handle limited DDT use and a complete ban was not justified. The movement to ban carbon fuels has all the hallmarks of the earlier environmental crusade against DDT.

No, I am afraid our skepticism of the the claims of the GW movement is warranted. But I will live as simple a life as possible and respect nature because I am called to do so by Catholic teaching anyway. (My carbon footprint beats Al Gore’s carbon butt-print any day of the year.)
 
The crusade against GW is already hurting poor people. I read an article recently about some poor Africans who were evicted from land purchased by rich Westerners who wanted to plant trees to offset their own carbon butt-prints.

And the GW craze has also fueled the mania for so-called renewable fuels. Remember 2007 when commodity prices went through the roof? It wouldn’t have happened if government policies hadn’t encouraged ethanol production. Poor people are starving because of the huge amounts of corn being diverted into ethanol production. And in the Dakotas (where I live) marginal land which has been fallow for decades is being plowed up and planted to grow government subsidized corn for rich farmers. And tiger habitat in Asia is being destroyed because of increased palm oil production for fuel, and…

See where I am coning from?

Kil
 
The supposed deleterious effects of GW (sea level rise and all the rest) are projected to occur decades from now, but the deleterious effects of the war on carbon fuels are already with us. Think about the hundreds of billions of dollars spent to date on climate change research. In addition to helping to corrupt scientists (see Dr. Richard Lindzen’s comments on this), it also is wealth taken out of the economy that could have been been employed elsewhere (e.g. helping the poor).
 
Now back to the issue of whether AGW is real (and just because a few whacko and ill-conceived solutions to it are a mess and harmful, does not in any way disprove AGW):

Here’s something I just read – the data have been refined and the one data set that had 1998 as the warmest year, now has 2010 as being the warmest year on record, with 2005 2nd, and 1998 3rd – however they also point out that this change is no big deal in terms of scientific certainty (just as their original 1998 being the warmest was no big deal and did not prove AGW had stopped or the earth had cooled…which takes decades of data to decide, not just a few years, since el ninos and la ninas can have big short term effect):

smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/perfect-storm-erupts-over-new-climate-data-20120320-1vib5.html

At issue was the British dataset only relying on data points, while the 2 U.S. datasets (which did have 2010 as the warmest) would extrapolate from closest data points to regions that had no data. This is important, since greater regions of the arctic than elsewhere have no data points, and the arctic has been warming faster than lower latitudes (which was one of the major causes for the slight discrepancies among datasets).

Of course skeptics are going to cry foul and claim that any dataset that shows warming has to be a lie and created by evil-intended scientists out to take over the world, or something.
 
Hi Lynn,
Of course skeptics are going to cry foul and claim that any dataset that shows warming has to be a lie and created by evil-intended scientists out to take over the world, or something.
Not “evil-intended scientists out to take over the world.” More likely opportunistic scientists trying to justify the funding or get more of the same.

The problems with the surface temperature records are many. But this much we know for sure: 1) the custodians of the records are constantly adjusting them, and the vast majority of their adjustments result in the late 20th century being warmer than the 1930’s. 2) James Hansen, Phil Jones, Tom Karl…, The Custodians of the Temps, are notorious proponents of AGW (goes to bias). 3) The records are still contaminated by the urban heat island effect and other biases. 4) Satellite measurement of the bulk atmosphere don’t show as much warming as the surface measurements…

So we skeptics don’t put much stock in what Hansen, Jones et al say about the temp record. Besides, in an unguarded moment, Jones himself said there hasn’t been a statistically significan increase in temps since 1998.
 
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