It took me a minute to recognize where my objection to this lay, but I believe it is exactly the same objection I raised earlier:
Your post was tricky because it hid the concept of randomness inside the word “spontaneously” which has connotations that are not usually associated with randomness.
If I were to drop a ball, then claim that the ball spontaneously fell to the floor, people would presumably not find this hard to believe, although you might object to the use of the word “spontaneous.” If I were to tell people that I had a computer program that traded on the stock market, and that it spontaneously bought Apple stock, people would probably not find that hard to believe. So why
do people find it hard to believe that a system which does chemistry (i.e. the universe) spontaneously did a particular chemical reaction (i.e. the one which led to life?)
As I said earlier, I think the reason has to do with how we think about randomness. In the “ball” example, we wouldn’t even consider randomness at all. The example is so common and well understood, that the “spontaneous” motion of the ball towards the planet is simply a fact of life.
The stock market example is similar, but because it’s the stock market we’re already primed to think about randomness. Buying Apple stock is a very “ordinary” event. Even if the trading system just picked stuff at random, we wouldn’t be surprised that it happened to choose Apple stock.
So what is different about chemistry? I think it is twofold:
- People still (subconsciously?) cling to Vitalism and therefore don’t completely believe that chemistry alone can give rise to the phenomena we associate with “life” in the first place. This automatically makes “abiogenesis” an extraordinary claim, unlike the Apple stock example.
- People think that whatever chemical reaction that gave rise to life must be somehow privileged and therefore either highly unlikely or impossible without some external influence.
While I think the CC still teaches that animals have souls, I’m not sure of their position on bacteria or other single celled organisms. Therefore, I am simply going to assume that the people here can at least agree that it is in principle possible to completely describe simple organisms by their chemistry alone.
The second point is, I think, the real crux of the issue with abiogenesis. I am even inclined to agree, that the chemical reactions which gave rise to life most likely required very special conditions to occur, and that they are therefore rare and unlikely. Indeed, the difficulty scientists have had so far in producing plausible candidate reactions is probably weak evidence for that assumption. The issue is that without more specific info about what those reactions are we can’t actually tell
how unlikely they are. Nevertheless,
the universe is a big place and so it shouldn’t be too surprising that unlikely things happen. Therefore, the argument from complexity requires us to assert that the chemistry of abiogenesis is rarer than the universe is large, and the counter is to simply assert that the universe is larger than abiogenesis is rare. Therefore, the deciding factor will simply be a clear picture of the chemistry involved in abiogenesis, and the corresponding probability.