Isn't anyone worried about the coming bird flu epidemic?

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:eek: Did anyone watch Prime Time last night when they were talking about the coming bird flu pandemic? Its not a question of IF there will be an epidemic, but of WHEN. This virus strain has a fatality rate of 55%!! I myself could not sleep last night after watching this show. I’m wondering if I shoud be stockpiling anti viral medications, rubber gloves and masks. What are you all doing?
 
The last two bird flu epidemics came here just as readily as everywhere else, and caused massive casualties. My great-grandfather was killed by one of them, actually.
 
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SamCA:
The last two bird flu epidemics came here just as readily as everywhere else, and caused massive casualties. My great-grandfather was killed by one of them, actually.
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Oh my…are you in Asia? I believe thats where most of the bird flu epidemics are located so far. However it takes only one sick person to get on a plane and land at La Guardia and then…
 
I did not quite understand the program - but it was a little scary. Sam - are you refering to the outbreaks of flu in 1918 that killed so many people? And, here is what I did not quite understand, are all flu(s) originally “bird flu” viruses?

HEY - I am a Business Major! what do I know from medicine!
 
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Celeste88:
stockpiling anti viral medications
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Don’t you need a prescription for that and will it help prevent symptoms of the bird flu?

Doctors usually prescribe anti viral meds at the onset of a flu…and not until. I think…
 
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Celeste88:
Oh my…are you in Asia? I believe thats where most of the bird flu epidemics are located so far.
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No, America. That’s my point. Avian flu pandemic are pretty rare – they only happen once or twice a century, if that. But when they do happen, they’re worldwide. And the last two hit America hard. The epidemic in 1918 killed more Americans than World War I.

EDIT – I forgot about the one in the 60s, which was relatively minor. So scratch that, the 1918 one was three pandemics ago.
 
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LSK:
I did not quite understand the program - but it was a little scary. Sam - are you refering to the outbreaks of flu in 1918 that killed so many people?
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Yep. (Though it was the one in 1957 that killed my great-grandfather, the 1918 one is the best known bird flu pandemic.)

To give an idea of the scope of destruction possible from this type of outbreak – the Spanish Flu in 1918 killed 25,000,000 people in a handful of weeks.
And, here is what I did not quite understand, are all flu(s) originally “bird flu” viruses?
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As I understand it, avian flu is a specific category of the influenza virus that usually only infects birds. However, occasionally one of these strains will mutate and begin infecting humans, too – and while our immune systems are very good at fighting the more human-centered strains of influenza virus, we have very little defense against the avian variety.

What’s particularly scary about avian flu is that it’s just as likely to kill a healthy adult in their prime as it is the weak or sickly. It’s pretty indiscriminate.
 
Celeste88 said:
:eek: Did anyone watch Prime Time last night when they were talking about the coming bird flu pandemic? Its not a question of IF there will be an epidemic, but of WHEN. This virus strain has a fatality rate of 55%!! I myself could not sleep last night after watching this show. I’m wondering if I shoud be stockpiling anti viral medications, rubber gloves and masks. What are you all doing?
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Yes, it got my attention, too. I don’t know what we can do, except be aware and watch for outbreaks. Probably not a great time to start raising pigeons… We’re trying to get an emergency kit started. Did anyone else come away with the impression that Primetime didn’t quite go into the promised details (the hook) regarding surviving a nuclear attack? They kept promoting it, then just gave it a very breif mention and only common sense suggestions–e.g. no playing in the resulting dust clouds.
 
This was taken from the CDC website

November 3, 2004 (Revised with updated information on antiviral use in children)

Influenza antiviral medications are an important adjunct to influenza vaccine in the prevention and treatment of influenza. In the setting of the current vaccine shortage, CDC has developed interim recommendations on the use of antiviral medications for the 2004-05 influenza season. These interim recommendations are provided, in conjunction with previously issued recommendations on use of vaccine, to reduce the impact of influenza on persons at high risk for developing severe complications secondary to infection. The recommendations are not intended to guide the use of these medications in other situations, such as outbreaks of avian influenza. These interim recommendations may be updated as more information on the supply of influenza vaccine and antiviral medications becomes available.
 
From WHO
16 September 2005
The Ministry of Health in Indonesia has today confirmed a fatal case of human infection with H5N1 avian influenza. The case occurred in a 37-year-old woman who resided in Jakarta. She developed symptoms on 31 August, was hospitalized on 3 September, and died on 10 September.

The positive test results were received from a WHO reference laboratory in Hong Kong.

The government has launched investigations, assisted by WHO, aimed at identifying the source of the woman’s infection and tracing her close contacts, including family members, neighbours, and hospital staff engaged in her treatment.

The woman lived in an area with multiple opportunities for exposure to chickens and ducks. No recent poultry deaths have been reported in the area. Poultry samples have been taken by agriculture authorities as part of the ongoing investigation.

This is the country’s second laboratory-confirmed case.

In July 2005, a cluster of 3 deaths in one family was investigated. H5N1 infection was confirmed in the 38-year-old father but laboratory test results for his two daughters did not meet criteria for acute H5N1 infections. WHO reports only laboratory-confirmed cases.

Investigation of the July family cluster was unable to determine the source of exposure. Testing and monitoring of more than 300 close contacts failed to detect any further cases.
 
The reason all flu viruse are Asian is because the farmers there still farm ducks and pigs in close proximity.

They need to be separated.
 
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buffalo:
The reason all flu viruse are Asian is because the farmers there still farm ducks and pigs in close proximity.

They need to be separated.
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From what I read the Chinese eat just about anything- and markets are full of cages of chickens, pigs, ducks and even cats and dogs. :eek: All these viruses then have a chance to mutate and pass on to different species. This is how the SARS virus got started - from civit cats if I understand right.

You know we still have live poultry shops in the US. I don’t know if anyone is checking on that and if any US chickens can get infected in a poultry shop and pass that on to people.
 
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SamCA:
No, America. That’s my point. Avian flu pandemic are pretty rare – they only happen once or twice a century, if that. But when they do happen, they’re worldwide. And the last two hit America hard. The epidemic in 1918 killed more Americans than World War I.

EDIT – I forgot about the one in the 60s, which was relatively minor. So scratch that, the 1918 one was three pandemics ago.
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Yes. A pandemic is worldwide, by definition. According to a health expert interviewed by NPR, it is defined as a case where a) a new virus develops that b) has jumped from animal to human and c) shows itself to sustain human-to-human infection enough to spread worldwide. There is no certain number of deaths or infections required, per se.

While it is virtually certain that there will be a flu pandemic again sooner or later, it is by no means certain that this particular virus will be the culprit. Furthermore, our ability to foresee pandemics has improved to the point that some preparation may be made to lessen the impact. Roche Pharmaceuticals has pledged to have 3 million courses of anti-viral medication ready for donation, if needed. Researchers are working on a vaccine that targets this particular virus. If we do not become complacent, it is not inevitable that something like the 1918 death toll will be repeated, particularly not here, where there are good public health communication lines, animal husbandry practices are at least somewhat safer, and so on.

Of course, if such an awful thing struck near you, and particularly if it struck children or left them orphaned, the fact that there have been plagues in the past that were more far-reaching would not be a great comfort. This is already the case with AIDs.
 
Thanks for pointing this out BLB.

However, I am concerned and from what I gather here (from comments about the report), our government is not prepared for this.
 
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SamCA:
No, America. That’s my point. Avian flu pandemic are pretty rare – they only happen once or twice a century, if that. But when they do happen, they’re worldwide. And the last two hit America hard. The epidemic in 1918 killed more Americans than World War I.

EDIT – I forgot about the one in the 60s, which was relatively minor. So scratch that, the 1918 one was three pandemics ago.
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My husband almost died in the 1968/69 flu epidemic. I think around 65,000 people dies in the US of it.
 
H5N1 is a killer. However, there have (to my knowledge) been no confirmed human to human transmissions of the virus. Those who died picked it up elsewhere.

What has researchers more alarmed than ever (and they have been plenty alarmed so far) is this new study:
Low-pathogenic avian flu viruses can infect humans
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Sep 13, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – European researchers have reported what they call the first evidence that low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses—not just highly pathogenic (HPAI) strains like H5N1—can infect humans.
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The finding in a study of Italian poultry workers suggests that avian flu viruses have more chances than previously suspected to mix with human flu viruses, potentially creating hybrids that could trigger a human flu pandemic, according to the report published online by the Journal of Infectious Diseases . . .
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from: Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy
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cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/sep1305lpai.html
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In a one-word response to the title of the thread: Nope.
There’s not a whole lot that can be done about it, and if God wants me home, I’ll go home, but I won’t go looking for it.
I have autoimmune problems, and the mildest virus has dramatic effects on me, so if I get one of these things I’m toast, anyway.
And, no, I don’t take the flu vaccines. I don’t trust that all of the virus is killed, and even my immune response is unpleasant.
Death will come to us all, violent, miserable or peaceful; it’s not our call. If this sounds fatalistic, maybe it is, but I’ve seen enough death in my lifetime that it’s way down on my list of things to worry about.
Family members? Sure, I worry about them, but again, that’s not my call.
Pray and trust and know that God loves us.
He also loves our Lord, and just think of His suffering. It explains everything.
 
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