Key Coronavirus Model Now Predicts Many Fewer U.S. Deaths

[7_Sorrows]

I’m not terribly excited about 80000 deaths that could have been avoided.

@sloancaprice

Please enlighten us how they could have been avoided.

 

[HarryStotle]

HarryStotle:

That 97% figure is a complete shot in the dark

It is part of the model that is being used to forecast peaks, declines, waves, an public policy.
As you can read at the IHME, it is informed by data obtained in other countries ahead of us in the onset of disease. More data will improve the model, but it is hardly a shot in the dark.

There is no such data because there have been, to date, no reliable serology testing to determine the numbers of those who have been infected and recovered within the entire population. There may be millions walking around, asymptomatically, whose bodies have developed the antibodies and they had no clue they were even sick. Until those numbers are reliably determined, the 97% figure is meaningless.

Absence of evidence does not make good science.

 

[josie_L]

Yes, that’s true. During the Spanish influenza it was the second outbreak that was deadlier than the first!!

The Spanish influenza went on for a few years thereafter.

 

[ProVobis]

Please enlighten us how they could have been avoided.

One can first look at those countries where cases and deaths were relatively low. There are many. Don’t look at the US, France, Italy, and the UK.

 

[josie_L]

There will be future outbreaks until we find a vaccine and that can possibly be in two years from now.

 

[HarryStotle]

Today Korea announced that people are being reinfected who have already had the virus so its far from over.

Yeah, no. There are reliable epidemiologists who are questioning that. It is more likely that those who tested negative and then supposedly were reinfected were not actually negative. The “false-negatives” could be as high as 30%, which means these weren’t reinfections but false negative test results.

 

[ProVobis]

Not to worry. There is a race to procure that vaccine.

Search for Coronavirus Vaccine Becomes a Global Competition (Published 2020)

The United States, China and Europe are battling to be the first to find a cure, bringing a nationalist element to a worldwide crisis.

www.nytimes.com

 

[HarryStotle]

Not to worry. There is a race to procure that vaccine.

Search for Coronavirus Vaccine Becomes a Global Competition - The New York Times

My bet — as a Canadian — is on Canada. We have a track record.

https://www.cmaj.ca/content/189/43/E1326

 

[HarryStotle]

HarryStotle:

That 97% figure is a complete shot in the dark

It is part of the model that is being used to forecast peaks, declines, waves, an public policy.
As you can read at the IHME, it is informed by data obtained in other countries ahead of us in the onset of disease. More data will improve the model, but it is hardly a shot in the dark.

A new German study using antibody testing on 80% of the population of Gangelt — a hard hit area of the country — suggests that about 15% of the Gangelt area were infected.

Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they’d been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while.

So the good news is that the death rate is closer to 0.37% than the 3.5% using only positive infection testing.

 

[dvdjs]

So the good news is that the death rate is closer to 0.37% than the 3.5% using only positive infection testing.

That is good news.
It also suggests that there may be a smaller continuing population of susceptibles after the first wave.

Absence of evidence does not make good science.

There has been terrific science on the molecular biology of the virus and ways to combat it. But it will be in the longer terms that we get scientific study of this pandemic.
What we have now, is sparse data coupled with an understanding of the framework of how epidemics work. From that, even with many known unknowns, public policy decision have to be made. We don’t have the luxury of waiting for the definitive study that will only come after the pandemic is over.

 

[josie_L]

Yes, but that vaccine still has to tested and trials administered before it becomes available to the public.

But yes, I’m aware of this race and hope it will garner the results we are looking for!

 

[Cathoholic]

ThinkingSapien beginning from a wrong pre-supposition . . .

Why are you amplifying that specific message?

Good grief.

For everybody else. Here is the message that ThinkingSapien was inquiring about . . . .

Government has not been able to “deliver us” from Influenza A and B. Government will not be able to deliver us from Corona Virus infections either.

If we are REALLY SERIOUS about isolating the disease, ask the public to do it THEMSELVES! (Correct. It won’t be perfect.)

And the best way to isolate the active virus is going to with widespread testing.

Having only your doctor order one, won’t cut it (it hasn’t with influenzas a and b) anyway.

EVERYONE who wants a Corona Virus test should be able to test at home.
Just like home pregnancy tests, viral panel tests SHOULD be available OTC (over the counter).

Just order a dozen virus test panels from Amazon (the panel can test for the Wuhan Cronona Virus, RSV, and Influenzas). If the home-tests are positive on ANY of the viruses, take them into your physician for verification with a more accurate test and possible treatment and self-isolation recomendations.

Keep the other 11 remaining tests in your medicine-cabinet for the next time you get a “bug” so you can self-test again.

There will be false positives and negatives. We can do public awareness campaigns on symtomatic individuals who are testing negative (get in to your doctor!).

 

[KMC]

There has been terrific science on the molecular biology of the virus and ways to combat it. But it will be in the longer terms that we get scientific study of this pandemic.
What we have now, is sparse data coupled with an understanding of the framework of how epidemics work. From that, even with many known unknowns, public policy decision have to be made. We don;t have the luxury of waiting for the definitive study that will only come after the the pandemic is over.

Regarding public policy…this was enlightening. It regards the red tape to get the tests approved…here is one of my favorite quotes:

After emailing his application to the FDA, Greninger discovered that it was incomplete. It turned out that in addition to electronically filing it, he also had to print it out and mail a physical copy along with a copy burned onto a CD or saved to a thumb drive. That package had to be shipped off to FDA headquarters in Maryland. It was a strange and onerous requirement in 2020, but Greninger complied. He had no choice. On February 20, he overnighted the hard copies of his application to the FDA.

Timeline: The Regulations—and Regulators—That Delayed Coronavirus Testing

There have been three major regulatory barriers so far.

thedispatch.com

 

[ChuckB]

Not to worry. There is a race to procure that vaccine.

It is my most fervent hope that a safe, reliable vaccine can be quickly produced. That said, I’m not so sure I want to be among the first to receive a vaccine that was rushed to market.

 

[Zzyzx_Road]

The 97% number has had little actual data to support it. It’s a model (name removed by moderator)ut. One that has to be scrutinized due to the drastic revision of the model outputs.

I’ve long suspected due to the numerous anecdotes I’ve seen from people suspecting they had Covid-19 before the first confirmed domestic cases that Covid-19 has already penetrated our population more than currently suspected. How much more has yet to be determined. But here are a couple of markers to show us the way:

Coronavirus traces found in Massachusetts wastewater at levels far higher than expected

Coronavirus was detected in Massachusetts sewage at higher levels than expected, suggesting there are many more undiagnosed patients than previously known, according to a new study. Researchers fro…

nypost.com

https://chicagocitywire.com/stories...-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody

Further, we know that California has nowhere near the number of cases that New York does even though California got its first confirmed case five weeks before New York did. Even today, California is still not going to be close to New York. Could that be because there is greater infection penetration in California than previously suspected? Well there is a study going on to figure that out.

#endthelockdown

 

[Maximus1]

That is worst news of the week

 

[Zzyzx_Road]

Further, we know that California has nowhere near the number of cases that New York does even though California got its first confirmed case five weeks before New York did. Even today, California is still not going to be close to New York. Could that be because there is greater infection penetration in California than previously suspected? Well there is a study going on to figure that out.

Here’s that study I mentioned:

New California antibody study could point to possible herd immunity to COVID-19

The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.

www.ksbw.com

From the article:

As of Tuesday, the state had 374 reported COVID-19 fatalities in a state of 40 million people, compared to New York which has seen 14 times as many fatalities and has a population half that of California. Social distancing could be playing a role but New York’s stay-at-home order went into effect on March 22, three days after California implemented its order.

“Something is going on that we haven’t quite found out yet,” said Hanson.

Hanson said he thinks it is possible COVID-19 has been spreading among Californians since the fall when doctors reported an early flu season in the state. During that same time, travel between China and America was unfettered. Some of those visitors even arriving on direct flights from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China.

“When you add it all up it would be naïve to think that California did not have some exposure,” said Hanson.

Hanson said through all of this the Chinese government has been disingenuous about the timing of the initial outbreak of COVID-19.

“They originally said it was in early January, then it got backdated to December and then early December and now they are saying as early as November 17,” said Hanson.

If Californians were exposed earlier than the rest of the country to COVID-19 the state may have had a chance to build up some herd immunity to the disease. We won’t know if that is the case until results from the Stanford Medicine study come back.

 

[Cathoholic]

#endthelockdown

 

[Pattylt]

Today Korea announced that people are being reinfected who have already had the virus so its far from over.

I read about this, too. The article I read also pointed out that the testing used has a 30% false negative rate so it is very possible that when the patient tested negative and then later positive, it was the fault of the test…not the patient getting a new infection. Let’s hope that’s the case.
One other thing that I thought of is that there are already several mutations of this virus. We don’t know if immunity to one variety also confers immunity to the others…let’s hope it does! There are still so many unanswered questions…our demanding them won’t speed up the answers, unfortunately!

 

[Thorolfr]

If Californians were exposed earlier than the rest of the country to COVID-19 the state may have had a chance to build up some herd immunity to the disease. We won’t know if that is the case until results from the Stanford Medicine study come back.

How could all this herd immunity have been built up in California with so few people getting sick or dying? And what caused the numbers of sick people infected with coronavirus to take off last month if the virus had been spreading much earlier?

Also, for all those people who think that we should lift the shelter-in-place orders early and think that most people will only have mild cases if they’re infected and have nothing to fear from this virus, here’s something new to consider:

In a study posted this week, scientists in China examined the blood test results of 34 COVID-19 patients over the course of their hospitalization. In those who survived mild and severe disease alike, the researchers found that many of the biological measures had “failed to return to normal.”

Chief among the worrisome test results were readings that suggested these apparently recovered patients continued to have impaired liver function. That was the case even after two tests for the live virus had come back negative and the patients were cleared to be discharged.

At the same time, as cardiologists are contending with the immediate effects of COVID-19 on the heart, they’re asking how much of the damage could be long-lasting…

“COVID-19 is not just a respiratory disorder,” said Dr. Harlan Krumholtz, a cardiologist at Yale University. “It can affect the heart, the liver, the kidneys, the brain, the endocrine system and the blood system.”