my cheap $0.02 forecast:
Trump may lose PA and NC due to the extra time for mail in ballots that will allow time for the Democrats to cheat their way to getting those states for Biden.
Trump will retain all other states that he won in 2016 including the battleground states other than NC and PA.
The killer for the Democrats is that Trump will take MN and NV for sure, and possibly also NH, NM and maybe even CO.
Remember Obama won MN by 298k votes, then 245k votes, but Hillary only won MN by 45k votes, having squandered nearly all of Obama’s advantage. After the riots, I will be very surprised if Biden somehow retains MN.
Same deal in CO: Obama won this state by 200k, then 150k votes while Hillary won it by 135k. Dunno if Trump will make up all that, but it will be a lot closer.
Same deal in NV: Obama won this state by 120k votes, then 68k votes, but Hillary only won by 27k votes last time out. NV is definitely in play and I think Trump takes it.
One will find these trends in a lot of states. Where Obama did very well in 2008, fairly well in 2012, but Hillary didn’t do as well in 2016. This has been long disguised by the national popular vote count, but that evaporates once one realizes that Hillary’s entire margin was supplied by CA and that Trump won the total popular vote for the other 49 states.
Trump will make shocking advances in CA, IL, OR, WA and NY though he still loses those states. For instance, Hillary pulled 4.3m more votes than Trump in CA; CA provided her entire margin over Trump nationwide. This time around the margin will cut in half for sure and possibly more.