but you could probably assign a probability to anything given enough information. For instance, I commonly hear intelligent design proponents cite the statistical probability that a planet capable of sustaining life could form from an event like the big bang. Obviously this is ridiculous (not to mention only relevant in an ancillary way to the question of whether or not Christianity is true). We don’t have nearly enough information to even start to ponder what the statistical probabity is a planet like earth could form from a big bang type event. We don’t know much about the singularity, we have no mathematical formula that can quantify it, and we have no idea whether or not anything existed prior to the big bang. Therefore, all this speculation is premature.
you’re eliding statistical and logical probability. statistical probability measures the likelihood of events or outcomes
given a specified set of initial conditions, while logical probability simply measures the number of possible outcomes or states of affairs independently of any initial conditions.
so, the logical probability of flipping a coin and getting ‘heads’ is 1/2, or 50%, because, logically, there are two outcomes (or 33.3% if you entertain the possibility of the coin landing on its edge).
however (assuming a deterministic model of physics, at least on the macroscopic level where QM intersects with newtonian mechanics), the statistical likelihood of getting heads will be 1 or 0, since the outcome of the flip is determined by the initial-conditions-plus-the-physical-covering-laws.
when ID’ers talk abut the probability of there being a life-bearing universe, they are talking about the
logical likelihood of such an occurrence,
not the statistical likelihood; and since awareness of the logical space surrounding possible universes is a fairly straightforward thing, it’s also a fairly straightforward exercise to assign logico-statistical numbers to each possibility (e.g. if there are 15 trillion possible combinations of the gravitational and fine structure constants, then the (logical) chance of getting one of those combinations will be 1 in 15 trillion).
what it’s reasonable to conclude about actual outcomes from logical probabilities is another matter entirely…
yankee_doodle:
I even hear intelligent design theorists advance a view of physics that ridicules unifying theoretical models like string & M theory (and other less accepted theories that posit alternate universes).
there are enough secuar scientists and mathematicians ridiculing M-theory for that to be a blot of any kind on ID’ers methodological escutcheon, believe me.
yankee_doodle:
Frankly I suspect Christianity is setting itself up for another embarrassment like the Galileo affair.
if you actually investigated the galileo affair, you would see that the most embarassing thing about it is just how many people down the ages uncritically accept what “they say” about it.
