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MIT Professor: Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in NYC
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gam197
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That could also be why Massachusetts got hit, the rail and MBTA take many to work. Over 1 million travel daily to Boston by different means
That becomes an issue when we reopen. Certainly can’t be by roads, traffic is already at a standstill.
That becomes an issue when we reopen. Certainly can’t be by roads, traffic is already at a standstill.
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KMC
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And…the NYC Health Commissioner urged New Yorkers to ride the subway in February…stating NYC was well prepared for the coronavirus outbreak.
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new-kirishitan
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I think there are other factors other than the subway itself. Here in Tokyo, the largest metropolis in the world with densely packed trains until the State of Emergency was declared, yet the current situation is FAR better than New York. I think other factors also played important roles too. First, Japanese people like to wear masks during flu and pollen seasons, even before the coronavirus outbreak. Second, it is a cultural taboo to make phone calls or talk loudly on the trains, and talking is one of the known factors that helps the spread of coronavirus. Third, Japanese trains have much bigger windows and they also open much wider than NYC subway trains. Fourth, the handles for standing passengers here are made out of antimicrobial materials. All these probably helped to slow down the spread of coronavirus.
Lastly, here’s the poster from the Japanese government regarding the coronavirus:
https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/content/000062975.pdf
Lastly, here’s the poster from the Japanese government regarding the coronavirus:
https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/content/000062975.pdf
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gam197
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It is a wonder that Japan did not get hit.
Can the windows be opened? The seats are very different, more spacious and can turned, not cramped with people standing all around you. More like the train rail system then inner city MBTA in Boston or any subway train I’ve been on in NYC.( Most people are pretty quiet on in/outbound commuter rail trains.)
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new-kirishitan
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That’s a limited express train designated for longer distances. Most commuter trains look different. The picture below is the E235 series train for the Yamanote loop line, the busiest rail line in Tokyo. The windows slides down, although in this picture they are closed.
(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)
(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)
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gam197
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How crowded is it during work hours and are hundreds of people standing up? You wrote densely packed so I guess that is answered. Another question is how much of the lines are enclosed underground with platforms where people wait? Climate could be a factor as this happened in the cold of winter when everything is closed up. It would seem if it was indeed public trains, Japan would be hit.
Beautiful train and antimicrobial material, that is great.
Beautiful train and antimicrobial material, that is great.
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Cathoholic
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Good insights. Thanks @new-kirishitan.
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new-kirishitan
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Usually you’ll have to kinda shove yourself into the train during morning rush hour. In extreme cases (happens on certain lines), the station staff will have to shove you into the train. Now, Japan is smaller than California, but it’s also very thin and long, so it stretches from Hokkaido (about as cold as Chicago) to Okinawa (almost as warm as Florida). Tokyo sits in the middle, with temperatures bouncing between mid-30s (Fahrenheit) and mid-50s in the winter. Snow is very rare.
Rush hour on most lines look like this:
Rush hour on super crowded lines look like this:
Until the coronavirus outbreak, the morning rush hour trains were like sardine cans. And that’s why Tokyo Metropolitan Government has been trying to persuade employers to allow flexible work time so people don’t have to be aiming at 9:00 am sharp.
Rush hour on most lines look like this:
Rush hour on super crowded lines look like this:
Until the coronavirus outbreak, the morning rush hour trains were like sardine cans. And that’s why Tokyo Metropolitan Government has been trying to persuade employers to allow flexible work time so people don’t have to be aiming at 9:00 am sharp.
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dvdjs
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I posted some skepticism of the study in another thread, where the link was first posted.
I think that the correlation is clear but the case for causation has some problems.
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Annie
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What do you mean by this?
I thought the subways as a factor was so obvious as to not even need a study to show. I was astounded that they reduced the number of cars (hopefully so they could clean them better?)
Welcome @new-kirishitan!
Also I think Japan might clean out the subways better than they do in NY.
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gam197
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I agree I think they clean out their subways better. Also much/most of the subway in NYC is underground and same in Boston. Of course much smaller but It is underground so you wait on platforms but then goes above ground but still transports many workers, 1 million travel to Boston by different means daily…
Climate could be a factor. Thirty to 50 degrees would be much, much milder and people would go out doors where literally everything is locked up in NYC and Boston with temperatures running 0 to 30. Where ever you go you are locked in with so many people whether it is a bus, store, restaurant, mall even ski lodge. You sit for hours in closed quarters and just about everyone does it. Even kids play in indoor play places and there might be 300 kids and parent together for hours on weekends and play places are every where.
Travelers fly in airports.
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dvdjs
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If you look at the deceleration of cases then then to follow or lag the imposition of mitigation efforts by a week. Bit the data in this analysis so contemporaneous decline in case rate and subway use. This situation suggests that the correlation is not causal. The coincidence of hots posts and subway stops is a bit more persuasive, but there the subway stop may be a proxy for all sorts of other gathering activity in the neighborhood.
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gam197
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A factor, besides climate, is if the lines/parts of lines are above ground(windows could be open), shorter commutes, and you do not sit literally 40 plus minutes underground as in NYC.
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Maximus1
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Mass transit in NYC is a marvel commuting to a tiny island. When they talk about REOPENING, they weren’t talking about Manhattan just because of what happened, it seemed kind of obvious that this virus was made to kill mass transit commuters.
NYC needs a vaccine.
NYC needs a vaccine.
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gam197
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There is no vaccine coming to us quickly so let’s hope this is a factor because we are now going into warm weather and will be able to do things outdoor.
How to get workers into their jobs will be an issue. American commuters/workers have to get used to using masks. If they can require drug testing, I would think businesses could require temperature testing.
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Maximus1
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I hope summer makes a difference.
The outbreak in South America is discouraging.
The outbreak in South America is discouraging.
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gam197
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What is happening in South America? I thought that was a pretty clean area with only certain areas hit. The deaths are not there on the World Meter site which list each country. European countries have been hit the hardest so far in deaths.
Saw an article April 20th from World Health(WHO) saying Africa is a big worry.
Let’s hope he is wrong and we are starting come out of this.
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Maximus1
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Africa is in real danger.
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Pattylt
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I don’t understand why so many people have an aversion to masks! In my city, perhaps half of the people are wearing them at the grocery store…and that’s on a good day! Never mind those that are wearing them incorrectly…under their nose or not tying the lower straps…at least they are wearing them.
Are your areas doing better than mine?
Are your areas doing better than mine?
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