More Middlemen in Mosul; Back to the Euphrates

[gilliam]

By Bill Roggio

The Coalition continues to dismantle Al Qaeda’s network in northern Iraq. Yesterday Col. Robert Brown described the degradation of al Qaeda in the north, summarized here; “Eighty percent of the network has been killed or captured. Sixty to seventy percent of the terrorist killed were foreigners. Most terrorists are now in their mid-teens, and inexperienced. Mortar attacks are down from three hundred a month to six.”

…

There is no better way to dismantle a terrorist organization than by striking at the middle managers. The Coalition is quite effective at this in the north. It has been effective because of tips from local Iraqis, the continuous presence of the Coalition and the application of this intelligence onto successful operations designed to kill or capture the most deadly leaders of the local networks.

The model being used up north will be applied to the local networks along the Euphrates ratline when the time is right. Coalition commanders are certain that al Qaeda’s attacks on Baghdad emanate from the river region. According to an unnamed senior Central Command officer; “We believe these attacks were spawned in the west, then the bombs migrated from the Euphrates River valley…the heart of Zarqawi’s network is not in Baghdad, we’re quite confident of that…In a corridor from Syria to Baghdad is where he’s nested right now.” Gen. John Abizaid, CENTCOM commander, concurs; “The insurgency is much more pushed to the west in Iraq this year than it was in the previous years…I actually regard that as a sign that the insurgency is having a hard time getting established elsewhere.”

The question that remains is if the time to forcefully move into Anbar has come. The human loss and political fallout from al Qaeda’s bloody attacks may necessitate the acceleration of the timeline to push westward along the Euphrates River.

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[gilliam]

A lot happening out west in Iraq:

Back to the Euphrates II

By Bill Roggio
As stated a few hours ago, the attacks in Baghdad would likely cause the Coalition to reassess the need to push forward with plans for operations along the Euphrates River. Reuters claims, based on a statements made by Major General Rick Lynch, that “U.S. forces are ready to launch air strikes on towns in western Iraq as they search for Iraq’s al Qaeda leader…”

However, Reuters has the story wrong. First, the U.S. has been conducting airstrikes in the region of Qaim for weeks. Second, MG Lynch was very specific about the type of operation they plan to conduct in Qaim and Haditha. Tal Afar was not a series of airstrikes, but a concerted push by about 10,000 Iraqi and U.S. troops to clear and hold the city and its suburbs. MG Lynch implies the necessary forces are available to do the same in Qaim and Haditha once the conditions are right. Tal Afar shows us the political will to confront the insurgency head on exists. The attacks on Baghdad will merely reinforce this.

MG Lynch’s statements cannot be dismissed as posturing, as there is support from this assertion in the Iraqi government. Iraqi Defense Minister Dulaimi stated during the height of operations in Tal Afar; "We tell our people in Ramadi, Samarra, Rawah and Qaim that we are coming.” Mr. Dulaimi accurately described the current operations on the border well over a month ago, which gives good reason to take his words to heart.

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[gilliam]

Back to the Euphrates III: Samarra, Ramadi

By Bill Roggio Both military and political pressure are being applied in the Anbar province. Al Jazeera reports airstrikes and combat between U.S. forces and ‘Iraqi fighters’ in the city of Ramadi near the U.S. base and a mosque. Omar from Iraq the Model reports delegates from Samarra have met with Iraqi Defense Minister Dulaimi to negotiate the future of the city. Dulaimi took a stern tone with the delegates, warning them that order is to be restored, be it locally or from the central government; “The minister was straightforward in his speech and warned the delegates that if the city doesn’t cooperate with the authorities in eliminating terror and criminal gangs, troops will have to enter the city and clean it up in a way similar to what happened in Talafar and the minister said that one month will be given to allow the city to take positive steps before power is used.”

Dulaimi has indicated the Iraqi government will listen, but will not accept terms that will lead to failure; “The government is willing to hear your demands and discuss them to reach a solution for the situation in Samarra, so talk to your people, write down your demands and submit them to the government but keep them reasonable, we can’t negotiate demands like those we heard from Ramadi, they wanted us to pull all Iraqi and American troops and let them rebuild units from the old army and that’s not acceptable. There’s one army in Iraq.”

Residents of Samarra have begun to leave the city, as they anticipate fighting in the near future. Note that the military already has established a cordon around the city; “Long queues of cars are forming at military checkpoints waiting for permission to leave the city.”

more here:

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