No recession

[Cuddy_Duck]

The media isn’t that left-wing, sometimes it has immense right wing bias as evidenced by this site:

Ah you need lessons in circular logic!

Any assessment of the MSM that says some of the media is right wing must be biased and therefore be a left wing source. Proving that the media is predominantly left wing.

Any assessment that says the MSM is left wing is impartial, proving that the MSM is left wing .

Yeh. Righty wins again!:whacky:

Back on topic.

Just some guy I guess.

“I believe the U.S. economy is now in recession,” Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, told the Futures Industry Association conference in Boca Raton, Florida. "Could this become the worst recession we have seen in the post-war period? I think the answer is yes. I would emphasize the word `could.’ "

bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3ObUWxYYBM8&refer=home

As I said: Good luck with that:wave:

 

[BamaRider]

All true. People keep talking about a recession - there may be one brewing, but the fact is there is a very precise definition for recession - 2 consecutive quarters of declining GDP. If you don’t have that, you don’t have a recession…

Well if we have one I’m not gonna participate in it. I’m gonna keep taking motorcycle trips, running, eating out, going to the movies, watching the big screen with HD satellite, and whatever else I might wanna get into.

Football season is here!

Life is good! Get out and have some fun!

 

[ribozyme]

Well if we have one I’m not gonna participate in it. I’m gonna keep taking motorcycle trips, running, eating out, going to the movies, watching the big screen with HD satellite, and whatever else I might wanna get into.

Football season is here!

Life is good! Get out and have some fun!

I am glad you lack concern with other people’s suffering and only care about defending your wealth.

Life is not good; too much suffering and poverty in the world. I’ll watch this series which would help me not focus on it while you ride motorcycles. But that series might be too left-winged for you.

 

[BamaRider]

I am glad you lack concern with other people’s suffering and only care about defending your wealth.

Life is not good; too much suffering and poverty in the world. I’ll watch this series which would help me not focus on it while you ride motorcycles. But that series might be too left-winged for you.

Defend my wealth?? LOL. Did I win the lottery?

Which series you tawkin about Ribo?

As just a regular ole working guy, I do what I can to help the world, but only so much a retired firefighter can do bro. In the meantime I’m gonna skip this recession they keep begging to come and let academia worry about it. The folks on some of the liberal blogs get twisted like a pretzel searching for a recession.

 

[DebChris]

The people most affected by any recession are those who find themselves laid off, let go because of a reduction in force.
It is the reason that local politicians, regardless of party, place the focus on “jobs, jobs, jobs.” That includes training programs provided by local community colleges, “Quick Jobs” so that people can develop new skills within 90 days.
The news announces not only plant closings, another one this week… It reports potential companies considering moving into the area and local job fairs.
There are places to go to learn about resume writing, to learn job search techniques and networking.
As posted earlier, Food Pantries are reporting more empty shelves as those who have never asked for help are seeking it at the same time that contributions are down.
The current inflation rate is 5.6%.inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp
Some of us are old enough to remember double digit inflation. We are not there yet. I personally don’t need to worry about the cost of filling my gas tank. I don’t own a car.
I do notice things like the increase in the price of rice.
I had a good orthopedist when I broke my ankle who let me pay what I could each month until I was able to pay off the bill. My insurance cancelled my policy, backdating the cancellation to the date that I needed help.

 

[mlchance]

I am glad you lack concern with other people’s suffering…

That’s funny coming from a pro-abortion statist.

– Mark L. Chance.

 

[catholicbuckeye]

Football season is here!

Life is good! Get out and have some fun!

Amen to that!!!

 

[catholicbuckeye]

Football season is here!

Amen to that!!!

 

[catholicbuckeye]

Football season is here!

Life is good! Get out and have some fun!

Amen to that!!!

 

[Ridgerunner]

The people most affected by any recession are those who find themselves laid off, let go because of a reduction in force.
It is the reason that local politicians, regardless of party, place the focus on “jobs, jobs, jobs.” That includes training programs provided by local community colleges, “Quick Jobs” so that people can develop new skills within 90 days.
The news announces not only plant closings, another one this week… It reports potential companies considering moving into the area and local job fairs.
There are places to go to learn about resume writing, to learn job search techniques and networking.
As posted earlier, Food Pantries are reporting more empty shelves as those who have never asked for help are seeking it at the same time that contributions are down.
The current inflation rate is 5.6%.inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp
Some of us are old enough to remember double digit inflation. We are not there yet. I personally don’t need to worry about the cost of filling my gas tank. I don’t own a car.
I do notice things like the increase in the price of rice.
I had a good orthopedist when I broke my ankle who let me pay what I could each month until I was able to pay off the bill. My insurance cancelled my policy, backdating the cancellation to the date that I needed help.

In no way do I question that those who are laid off suffer because of it. Being self-employed, I can’t be laid off except by illness or death, but I feel this recession on my hide too. Nothing good about recessions, except that they end eventually. I have been through several and went broke more than once.

I can’t testify concerning the price of rice, but I recently drove through the better agricultural areas of my state and two other states. Never, ever in my life have I ever seen anything like the corn and soybeans I saw; wall to wall, for 500 miles, and as perfect as could possibly be imagined. It’s no wonder corn and soybean prices are coming down. I think they’ll come down a lot more by the end of the crop year. I see that oil is down again today. So is gold…again. If the gold investors don’t believe in worsening inflation any more than that, then I don’t think it’s all that smart for me to believe in it either.

There are still bad mortgages on the books of the banks. But I just read today that one of them that a lot of people thought was in trouble was selected by the FDIC to take over a bank that really was failing, and the former’s stock has nearly doubled from its recent low.

We’re not done with this one, and I hate it that we’re not. But business cycles recur, no matter what politicians try to do about them and no matter who is in office, and certainly no matter what I think about it.

 

[DebChris]

Ridgerunner,
I agree that recessions need to be ridden out. That why it is important to save during the flush times. Sometimes the “pump needs to be primed” in order to help shorten the duration of a recession.
The price of oil, the cost of transportation, affects the price of goods.
The news has covered the riots in southern Mexico coming from an increase in the price of masa, the reason for the rising cost of tortillas being contributed to the use of corn being grown for ethanol instead of as food. That is a different issue as different ways of providing energy and protecting the environment are addressed from very different angles.
The jokes during the Boeing layoffs when I was in high school focused on the definitions of an optimist versus a pessimist.
An optimist, parks his car, turns off the engine, and goes to work.
A pessimist keeps the motor running.
In those days of stagflation, men did not know which day they would receive a pink slip. When I lived in WI, the pink slips were attached to Friday paychecks. My last full time job called a special meeting. We were given the same two week notice that most companies expect from employees when they resign.
With the outsourcing of textiles, legislators worked to develop Quick Job programs to help people develop new job skills. Many of those who lost jobs due to plant closing had worked at the same position for more than twenty years. These workers needed to learn job hunting skills. While my father had taught me to put “open” on the line asking about position desired, today’s employers read that as a person who does not know what they want.

 

[Ridgerunner]

Ridgerunner,
I agree that recessions need to be ridden out. That why it is important to save during the flush times. Sometimes the “pump needs to be primed” in order to help shorten the duration of a recession.
The price of oil, the cost of transportation, affects the price of goods.
The news has covered the riots in southern Mexico coming from an increase in the price of masa, the reason for the rising cost of tortillas being contributed to the use of corn being grown for ethanol instead of as food. That is a different issue as different ways of providing energy and protecting the environment are addressed from very different angles.
The jokes during the Boeing layoffs when I was in high school focused on the definitions of an optimist versus a pessimist.
An optimist, parks his car, turns off the engine, and goes to work.
A pessimist keeps the motor running.
In those days of stagflation, men did not know which day they would receive a pink slip. When I lived in WI, the pink slips were attached to Friday paychecks. My last full time job called a special meeting. We were given the same two week notice that most companies expect from employees when they resign.
With the outsourcing of textiles, legislators worked to develop Quick Job programs to help people develop new job skills. Many of those who lost jobs due to plant closing had worked at the same position for more than twenty years. These workers needed to learn job hunting skills. While my father had taught me to put “open” on the line asking about position desired, today’s employers read that as a person who does not know what they want.

Guess we’ll just have to see how this one plays out. I never invest in commodities. But if I did, I sure wouldn’t want to be “long” in commodities right now, including corn.

I can’t say what most employers want. I don’t know. I am a small employer myself, and what I look for is native intelligence and evident willingness. You can teach a bright, willing person anything you need them to do, and be reasonably confident they’ll do it. I pay very little attention to anything else.

 

[DebChris]

Guess we’ll just have to see how this one plays out. I never invest in commodities. But if I did, I sure wouldn’t want to be “long” in commodities right now, including corn.

I can’t say what most employers want. I don’t know. I am a small employer myself, and what I look for is native intelligence and evident willingness. You can teach a bright, willing person anything you need them to do, and be reasonably confident they’ll do it. I pay very little attention to anything else.

I have don’t go for commodities. For a short time, I owned Stocks. They need to held for the long term, not like short term bets on horses. Actually, the stocks I owned were part of mutual funds. Many 401K plans have mutual fund options. On the thread about getting out of debt vs. saving for retirement, I posted what I learned about investing vs. savings based on age. The younger you are the more risk you can afford. The more risk, the greater the potential payoff. They still need to be informed risks
I agree that willingness to learn and adaptability are important. I learned different skills OJT. These skills translate from job to job and across different positions between jobs. It is a good thing when one supervisor tells another that you are “trainable.” When a person knows different jobs within the company he/she can be used where needed. You get noticed.
I’m back in school, my way of riding out the recession while jobs are scarce. One year from now, I should have a teaching position either in an elementary school or a child life specialist position in a hospital. I am investing in myself. Some of my debt is being offset by scholarships for which I am thankful.

 

[Ridgerunner]

I have don’t go for commodities. For a short time, I owned Stocks. They need to held for the long term, not like short term bets on horses. Actually, the stocks I owned were part of mutual funds. Many 401K plans have mutual fund options. On the thread about getting out of debt vs. saving for retirement, I posted what I learned about investing vs. savings based on age. The younger you are the more risk you can afford. The more risk, the greater the potential payoff. They still need to be informed risks
I agree that willingness to learn and adaptability are important. I learned different skills OJT. These skills translate from job to job and across different positions between jobs. It is a good thing when one supervisor tells another that you are “trainable.” When a person knows different jobs within the company he/she can be used where needed. You get noticed.
I’m back in school, my way of riding out the recession while jobs are scarce. One year from now, I should have a teaching position either in an elementary school or a child life specialist position in a hospital. I am investing in myself. Some of my debt is being offset by scholarships for which I am thankful.

I wish you the best on your new career. One thing I learned some time ago (it just came to me, actually) is that the highest compliment a person can pay you is to PAY you. People don’t part with money at all readily. If what you’re selling is useful to thier lives to the point they’re willing to pay you to do what you do, they are showing their admiration.

The next part of that, then, is to try to give full value plus, the “baker’s dozen”, so to speak, which is the “return of the compliment”.

 

[DebChris]

I wish you the best on your new career. One thing I learned some time ago (it just came to me, actually) is that the highest compliment a person can pay you is to PAY you. People don’t part with money at all readily. If what you’re selling is useful to thier lives to the point they’re willing to pay you to do what you do, they are showing their admiration.

The next part of that, then, is to try to give full value plus, the “baker’s dozen”, so to speak, which is the “return of the compliment”.

Scripture says, “The worker is worth his wages.”
In terms of a living wage, the purpose of minimum wage, I like the suggestion of one of the presidential candidates (not the nominees) to connect the minimum wage to the consumer price index. I don’t know what formula he would use.
A person goes into business to make a profit. It shouldn’t be the outrageous profit of some CEOs (over 200X their average worker). At the beginning of the 20th century, the average business owner made 11X his average worker.
Anyway, I know that business owners have to take into account the cost of equipment, supplies, and wages. When prices go up, it’s hard to stay in business. With the minimum wage attached to the consumer price index, we wouldn’t have to debate minimum wage every 5 years.
There was another business closing in the news this morning affecting 100 people. The company is providing severance and outplacement services. Not all companies do that.

 

[Ridgerunner]

Scripture says, “The worker is worth his wages.”
In terms of a living wage, the purpose of minimum wage, I like the suggestion of one of the presidential candidates (not the nominees) to connect the minimum wage to the consumer price index. I don’t know what formula he would use.
A person goes into business to make a profit. It shouldn’t be the outrageous profit of some CEOs (over 200X their average worker). At the beginning of the 20th century, the average business owner made 11X his average worker.
Anyway, I know that business owners have to take into account the cost of equipment, supplies, and wages. When prices go up, it’s hard to stay in business. With the minimum wage attached to the consumer price index, we wouldn’t have to debate minimum wage every 5 years.
There was another business closing in the news this morning affecting 100 people. The company is providing severance and outplacement services. Not all companies do that.

I suppose the inflation-adjusted minimum wage might have merit if everything else also moved with the CPI, but they don’t. One of the really tough things about any progressive economy is that margins get squeezed as innovations make it possible for things to cost less, at least relatively speaking. Sometimes profitability lurches forward. Sometimes it lags.

I also have real problems with the lack of available teenage employment opportunities. Let’s face it. Most teenagers are barely worth they pay they get. But it is money and they do get work experience. When the minimum gets raised to a “living wage”, that pretty much cuts teenagers out. I realize this is anecdotal, but when I was a teenager, there were all kinds of jobs around, but they didn’t pay anything remotely like a living wage. Now, I don’t think any wages around here are as LOW as the minimum wage, and there are almost no teenage jobs. Even in fast food, they pay more than minimum wage, and have for years. But they also mostly hire semi-retirees or part-timer moms who already know how to work.

Teenagers are just plain out of luck, especially the girls. Strong boys can still get on as rough labor, but not many of them.

 

[DebChris]

I suppose the inflation-adjusted minimum wage might have merit if everything else also moved with the CPI, but they don’t. One of the really tough things about any progressive economy is that margins get squeezed as innovations make it possible for things to cost less, at least relatively speaking. Sometimes profitability lurches forward. Sometimes it lags.

I also have real problems with the lack of available teenage employment opportunities. Let’s face it. Most teenagers are barely worth they pay they get. But it is money and they do get work experience. When the minimum gets raised to a “living wage”, that pretty much cuts teenagers out. I realize this is anecdotal, but when I was a teenager, there were all kinds of jobs around, but they didn’t pay anything remotely like a living wage. Now, I don’t think any wages around here are as LOW as the minimum wage, and there are almost no teenage jobs. Even in fast food, they pay more than minimum wage, and have for years. But they also mostly hire semi-retirees or part-timer moms who already know how to work.

Teenagers are just plain out of luck, especially the girls. Strong boys can still get on as rough labor, but not many of them.

As mentioned earlier, I graduated from high school in the Pacific Northwest at a time when men could not find jobs to support their families. I was able to find a summer job just out of school because of a special job program for teenagers. I rode the Greyhound into the city every morning, about 20 miles. I had Savings Bonds taken out of my pay and was able to save most of what I earned. That program was no longer available the next year.
Even a person working minimum wage could afford a small apartment without amenities. They might not have a car, but they had a place to live.
After I married, my husband was able to go to school using Veteran’s benefits. We lived in a one bedroom apartment even without me working.
I don’t think it’s right that men, and very often women who find themselves single with families to raise, have to work two and three jobs just to make ends meet. There is something wrong when people are homeless despite working full time.
Before the 1980’s, homelessness was a rarity limited to the town drunk. Today, on any given night, over 150,000 children under 18 are homeless (National Coalition for the Homeless).
Yes, I would like to see teenagers able to find work, but first the head of a household needs to be able to take care of his/her family. There are big companies like Wal-Mart who intentionally depress wages so that their line workers need food stamps to feed their families. They will cut hours to just under full-time so that they do not have to provide benefits. There is definitely something wrong with this picture. People want to provide for their families without the need to lean on government or charitable programs.
Big companies can outsource, keeping prices low. This hurts not only the worker, but small companies who might like to pay their valued employees more.

 

[Ridgerunner]

As mentioned earlier, I graduated from high school in the Pacific Northwest at a time when men could not find jobs to support their families. I was able to find a summer job just out of school because of a special job program for teenagers. I rode the Greyhound into the city every morning, about 20 miles. I had Savings Bonds taken out of my pay and was able to save most of what I earned. That program was no longer available the next year.
Even a person working minimum wage could afford a small apartment without amenities. They might not have a car, but they had a place to live.
After I married, my husband was able to go to school using Veteran’s benefits. We lived in a one bedroom apartment even without me working.
I don’t think it’s right that men, and very often women who find themselves single with families to raise, have to work two and three jobs just to make ends meet. There is something wrong when people are homeless despite working full time.
Before the 1980’s, homelessness was a rarity limited to the town drunk. Today, on any given night, over 150,000 children under 18 are homeless (National Coalition for the Homeless).
Yes, I would like to see teenagers able to find work, but first the head of a household needs to be able to take care of his/her family. There are big companies like Wal-Mart who intentionally depress wages so that their line workers need food stamps to feed their families. They will cut hours to just under full-time so that they do not have to provide benefits. There is definitely something wrong with this picture. People want to provide for their families without the need to lean on government or charitable programs.
Big companies can outsource, keeping prices low. This hurts not only the worker, but small companies who might like to pay their valued employees more.

I’m not sure what all the anwers are, though it seems to me, as well, that it’s tougher to put a life together than it once was; virtually across the board. Some thoughts I have, possibly inaccurate are:
-The whole “amenity” structure is different. When I was a little kid, there was no electronic anything. Radios were cheap if you bought a cheap one. Electric fans were cheap. (No AC) Cars were cheap and were so simple a kid could work on them. (even I could, and I have no mechanical talent at all). There was no designer anything that I knew about. Tennis shoes were the cheapest kind of shoes you could buy. I got two pairs of jeans and a handful of shirts each fall; a good pair of shoes and an ordinary pair (usually tennis shoes) and that was the whole wardrobe for the whole year. In the summer you had two pairs of shorts and the tennis shoes. I almost never wore a shirt in the summer. The good pair of shoes was worn only to church, so they stayed nice, and your brother wore them when you outgrew them. My mother made a lot of our clothing with a treadle sewing machine. I could literally buy all my school clothes and supplies from picking strawberries during a short season at six cents per quart. Our food was basic and cheap. People, and particularly children, just didn’t have the stuff we have now, and money didn’t get thrown at consumer goods the way it is now. It wasn’t there to buy.
-Rentals were plentiful, and I’ll agree that even the town drunk had a place to sleep. But you paid your rent, and it didn’t take six months in court to throw you out if you didn’t pay. The landlord called the cops and they threw you out, and that was that. So landlords didn’t have to take those losses into account in what they charged. Mortgage interest was 6% for years and years and years.
-Taxes were low for most and child deductions were high relative to now. I just barely remember when sales taxes were so low they were paid in “mills” (1/1000 of a dollar). People had to keep a supply of “mills” on hand because a penny was too much to pay the sales tax on most things. As a kid (I went to work at 13. If there were labor laws then, nobody paid any attention to them.) I had my social security tax paid in full by the end of April.
-Labor requirements are now different. One of my neighbors is a high school graduate; a welder. He learned to weld all these exotic alloys and goes all over the country to special projects. He gets paid a lot. Just bought a bunch of land and a bulldozer to work on it with. In the local factories, it’s hard to get supervisors, whose pay is considerably better than that of line workers. For some, you have to attend night classes at a local community college to qualify, but few do it. In a local software manufacturer, people with an associate’s degree in computer programming make $70.000 to start. Many make over $100,000.00/year. Most of their people don’t have any more education than that. Their “setup” people often don’t even have that. They just know how to set up computer systems in banks. They have some big planes for their setup crews, and the pilots make a lot of money, but are hard to find and keep. Virtually all are former military pilots. Skilled printers (first pressmen) make upwards of $80,000. Takes a long time to qualify, and the skill and effort levels are high, but it’s all on-the-job training. You do have to work incredibly long hours during the summer (school books) but the fall is pretty slack. I have seen people walk off first pressman jobs out of anger at some boss or other, and live to regret it. It always amazes me to see people do that.

(continued)

 

[Ridgerunner]

Not to quibble overmuch with you, but there are also some very good jobs at Walmart. But they’re not on the floor. You have to work your way up in that company, or have a skill. Walmart recently set up its computer center not 50 miles from here, and you would not believe the houses those people are building; hundreds and hundreds of them. Those people are definitely making a living wage. But they aren’t big capitalists. They just have the skills Walmart desperately needs. They’re like the people at the bank software place. No PhDs. Mostly ordinary people with associate degrees in the right thing.

Even Tyson’s, that used to take supervisors from the line, now requires associate degrees in agriculture for supervisory jobs. They’ll help you pay for it if you’ll go to the community college for two years. Not enough takers to fill the ranks reliably, though. I’ll admit you work hard at Tyson’s as a supervisor; a lot harder than the line workers do. But it’s definitely a living wage.

I don’t know what the answers are. Things are different now, and that’s for sure. But I do think a big part of it is the higher skill level required more and more; the fact that consumer goods are so plentiful and so ornate that it costs a lot to buy them and the fact that we pay a lot more tax than we used to.

 

[JimR-OCDS]

I guess people who work for the government even at the municipal level, i.e. firemen and cops, will think that the economy is great, but the rest of us who are struggling in the dreaded private sector, are more closely connected to reality.

Dow plunges nearly 350 on troubling retail, unemployment news
Data show the economy is still weak and could worsen if foreign markets continue to fade. Investors now view falling commodity prices with fear.
By Walter Hamilton, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
September 5, 2008
NEW YORK – Falling gasoline prices aren’t enough to rescue the stock market from its funk.

That was clear Thursday as lackluster retail sales and a jump in unemployment claims pushed the Dow Jones industrial average down almost 350 points in its worst drubbing in more than two months. latimes.com/business/careers/work/la-fi-markets5-2008sep05,0,3694327.story?page=1

Jim