No recession

[JimR-OCDS]

The U.S. faces a period of ``diminished expectations’’ that may last as long as five years, Fosler said. Growth of 2 percent or less in the world’s largest economy would feel like a recession, the head of the New York-based research group said.

The tech sector is beginning to weaken and the manufacturing sector, which has really held up, is likely to begin to weaken,'' she said. The U.S. is going to be in a relatively stagnant, relatively slow growth mode for the foreseeable future.’’

About 463,000 Americans have lost jobs since January as the worst housing recession in a quarter century curtailed spending and bank lending. Economists expect annualized rates of growth of 1 percent in the third quarter and 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey in early August.
bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=al6SEclWzs18&refer=economy

Darn, this doesn’t match what George Bush is telling us, but I forgot, its just in my mind.

Jim

 

[BamaRider]

Investors now view falling commodity prices with fear.

These would be same folks that said booming oil prices were gonna put us in the tank?

The economy grew at 3.3% last quarter. The current unemployment rate is lower then the 1960s, 70s, 80s and 90s.

I guess people who work for the government even at the municipal level, i.e. firemen and cops, will think that the economy is great, but the rest of us who are struggling in the dreaded private sector, are more closely connected to reality.

So I guess this means if we have a recession you’re gonna participate in it?

If you have a job, paying your mortgage, going to Starbucks, and watching football on weekends, why are you complaining?

Now I’m sure evenutally a recession will come, to the glee of some, they always do, and we always come back stronger. The way I look at it.

Some people are wishing for a recession so bad just so they can blame it on Bush. Why would somebody wish bad times on their fellow citizens for political points? It doesn’t matter who is in office when a recession comes, it can’t be prevented, unless you wanna convert us to govt controlled market.

True, my job was recession proof. It would have to be really, really bad to lay off fire and police. One of the key recruiting points of the job.

What would you have the Presiden/govt do to make sure you won’t ever be layed off? What power does any president have to to prevent a company doing what needs to be done? But I can tell ya alot of stuff they can do to mess things up.

But we’re listening for your ideas on how everyone in America will receive guranteed employment.

 

[DebChris]

Evening news report: Unemployment at 6.1%= highest in 5 years.
86,000 lost jobs in the last three months.

Ridgerunner,
I have noticed much of what you said. One of my brothers, now retired, worked for Aramco. When he came up for promotion, he was told that not only did he not qualify for promotion, he would not even be hired. He has a high school education and learned electronics in the Army. His was a great job and he now owns a ranch in Texas.
Many jobs do require higher education levels than in the past. I saw an ad for the police department in Mesa, AZ. They require a Bachelor’s Degree for a job that used to require an Associates. I do like that the last full-time job I worked provided tuition reinbursement for jobs specific to company needs.
One of the things that I find interesting at a local place where people can go for help is that a person can go twice a month for free clothes, but only once a month for food. I shop at Goodwill. If you look, you can find clothes made by Ralph Lauren and others. My daughter once found a dress by Vera Wang for $18. She had to tell me who Vera Wang is.
We are definitely more electronically connected than in the past. Children don’t know what it means to play outside. Family time needs to be “scheduled.” In the past, we also used refills in our pens rather than throw them away when we ran out of ink.
When government pays for things, there is a tendency to forget that it is really we who are paying for those services through taxes. Yes, they do keep going up.

 

[The_Barbarian]

Darn, this doesn’t match what George Bush is telling us, but I forgot, its just in my mind.

You are what what’sisname’s campaign manager calls “a whiner.” Just because the economy’s in the tank is no reason to blame the people in charge.

 

[Ridgerunner]

You are what what’sisname’s campaign manager calls “a whiner.” Just because the economy’s in the tank is no reason to blame the people in charge.

I didn’t realize there were still people who think the president controls the economy. I will grant one thing, though. Bush made a terrible mistake in re-appointing Alan Greenspan. I thought so then, and I know so now.

 

[Ridgerunner]

Evening news report: Unemployment at 6.1%= highest in 5 years.
86,000 lost jobs in the last three months.

Ridgerunner,
I have noticed much of what you said. One of my brothers, now retired, worked for Aramco. When he came up for promotion, he was told that not only did he not qualify for promotion, he would not even be hired. He has a high school education and learned electronics in the Army. His was a great job and he now owns a ranch in Texas.
Many jobs do require higher education levels than in the past. I saw an ad for the police department in Mesa, AZ. They require a Bachelor’s Degree for a job that used to require an Associates. I do like that the last full-time job I worked provided tuition reinbursement for jobs specific to company needs.
One of the things that I find interesting at a local place where people can go for help is that a person can go twice a month for free clothes, but only once a month for food. I shop at Goodwill. If you look, you can find clothes made by Ralph Lauren and others. My daughter once found a dress by Vera Wang for $18. She had to tell me who Vera Wang is.
We are definitely more electronically connected than in the past. Children don’t know what it means to play outside. Family time needs to be “scheduled.” In the past, we also used refills in our pens rather than throw them away when we ran out of ink.
When government pays for things, there is a tendency to forget that it is really we who are paying for those services through taxes. Yes, they do keep going up.

Of course, people use AC now, but did you ever go to an estate sale where they had one or more of those old, heavy black oscillating fans they built in the 20s through the 40s? At summer sales, they often plug them in to fan the bidders, because they almost invariably still work. Almost nobody uses them now, but can you imagine the cost/year spread out over those decades if people did?

And, other than collectors’ items at such sales, everything is dirt cheap. Perfectly good household goods of all kinds. It really is upsetting to see the ads for cheesy “financed furniture” on tv, knowing young people especially will take them up on it. You can go to estate sales and get much better stuff. Of course, they might need to refininsh some of it, but that’s not expensive if you do it yourself. Remember when there were sewing shops all over the place? (Maybe you’re not old enough). Now, the only place I see sewing machines is at estate sales. Unless they’re collectors’ items, (the fancy old treadle jobs in the cabinets) nobody wants them.

Not trying to indulge in reverse snobbery here. But I think sometimes that a lot of people don’t really realize what they could do for themselves to avoid overspending. I have noticed something interesting, though. There are a fair number of Hispanics around here now; mostly Mexicans. They work intergenerationally. Older ladies make these kids’ clothes that are dazzling. They also do the “day care”. Younger women make meals in bulk together for several families. NEVER do I see Hispanics buying homes on “no money down” deals. They always have money; a surprising amount of it. At closings, they always want to know whether there are any prepayment penalties. They are the only ones who want me to explain it carefully to them. And almost without exception, they work as line workers in local poultry plants or aluminum fabrication plants. Maybe that work doesn’t pay a “living wage” for everybody, but it sure does for them.
Of course, most of the buyers at yard sales are also Mexicans. When it comes to money, they know what they’re doing.

 

[The_Barbarian]

I didn’t realize there were still people who think the president controls the economy.

No one controls the economy. But the president has powerful effects depending on the policies he follows. The borrow-and-spend policy of the Bush Administration has had a profound effect on the economy. How could debt that large not have an effect?

 

[The_Barbarian]

Of course, people use AC now, but did you ever go to an estate sale where they had one or more of those old, heavy black oscillating fans they built in the 20s through the 40s? At summer sales, they often plug them in to fan the bidders, because they almost invariably still work. Almost nobody uses them now, but can you imagine the cost/year spread out over those decades if people did?

As an accumulator of old cameras, slide rules, microscopes, etc., I am always struck by the fact that manufacturers of old tried to build things to last as long as possible. They aren’t as slick as modern stuff, but they are remarkable for the engineering and quality of build.

It really is upsetting to see the ads for cheesy “financed furniture” on tv, knowing young people especially will take them up on it. You can go to estate sales and get much better stuff. Of course, they might need to refininsh some of it, but that’s not expensive if you do it yourself.

No kidding. My house is a mixture of Ikea and old stuff we’ve inherited and refinished. The beauty and construction of old furniture is just wonderful, once it’s cleaned up and repaired.

Unless they’re collectors’ items, (the fancy old treadle jobs in the cabinets) nobody wants them.

My wife accumulates them. And uses them. She’s very good at it. When I was growing up, people said “it runs like a sewing machine”, and meant it as a compliment.

I have noticed something interesting, though. There are a fair number of Hispanics around here now; mostly Mexicans. They work intergenerationally. Older ladies make these kids’ clothes that are dazzling. They also do the “day care”. Younger women make meals in bulk together for several families. NEVER do I see Hispanics buying homes on “no money down” deals. They always have money; a surprising amount of it. At closings, they always want to know whether there are any prepayment penalties. They are the only ones who want me to explain it carefully to them. And almost without exception, they work as line workers in local poultry plants or aluminum fabrication plants. Maybe that work doesn’t pay a “living wage” for everybody, but it sure does for them.

They are like our parents, the children of the 30s. They are careful and save. And as you suggest, when there is need, they usually have money. They don’t scrimp on education for their kids, for example. Few of those families stay working class for long; they expect the kids to do better than they did. Which is a genuinely American thing to expect, isn’t it?

The thing is, they haven’t lost faith in the American dream. And too many native-born Americans have.

 

[Ridgerunner]

I will add this.

At my granddaughter’s First Communion earlier this year, there were about as many Hispanic children as “Anglos”. The little Hispanic girls had the most elaborate dresses and veils you could imagine. Home made. Incredible workmanship. Far better than the ones the little “Anglo” girls’ parents bought.

For her wedding a few years ago, one of my daughters ordered her wedding cake from a Mexican “Panaderia”. Absolutely magnificent, at a fraction of the cost one would pay at a regular bakery that makes them. Another of my daughters is getting married next May, and she’s going to the Panaderia too. It’s a family-owned bakery. Father, mother and older kids are the only workers. All the customers I have ever seen there are Mexicans but us. We buy all “special occasion” baked things there, but you have to give instructions. It was funny. The first cake I ordered there was for our parish priest’s birthday. My wife had to tell them how to do it “Anglo” style. Mexicans don’t normally use anywhere near as much sugar or flavoring as Anglos do. They were just floored when my wife told them how she wanted it done. “That much!” “That much!” “More?” But they did it as instructed. Prettier, really. Devised an elaborate dove for the top out of icing without even being asked. Sure did. They are Catholics and were happy to deliver it themselves.

There are deals everywhere. The daughter who’s getting married next May decided to have her reception at a beautiful hunting lodge in the country. It’s a place where rich people go to shoot trophy bucks and elk for $5,000 and up, WAY up, so it’s a wonderful, lavish place. Makes a person expect to see Teddy Roosevelt walk in at any moment, arm in arm with the Tsar of All the Russias. But the end of May is “out of season”, so the rental is $250.00. Guests can stay overnight for $50.00. The catering is extra, but since the staff at the lodge is otherwise nearly idle in late May, that’s bargain basement too. Cash bar right out of 1901, complete with brass spittoons, brass footrail and turn-of-the-century paintings where we “old guys” can repair to ponder the generations, old and new. What a lucky father I am to have a daughter like her!! I don’t even need to encourage her to elope in order to avoid going broke! The guy at the Panaderia is going to deliver the cake personally, and I’m sure it’s to talk a little future business with the lodge manager. I expect their wealthy “regular season” guests would like some of the lavish, hand-decorated pastry that guy has learned to make. I’m enjoying the event already, and it’s almost a year away!

Sorry I got carried away. But if a clever young girl like my daughter can find stuff like that, I think we could all benefit by looking a little harder for the good deals.

 

[Ridgerunner]

Barbarian:

Maybe you have already figured it out, but I finally found out what that “red stuff” is that you often find below the old alligatored varnish on a piece you want to refinish. It’s actually a superficial dye you can get on special order at better paint stores. Once the piece is stripped and sanded and filled, you put that stuff on very lightly, then mix your own stain to suit and put it on. Looks horrible until you varnish. Then it has the most magnificent subsurface glow you can possibly imagine. Looks a mile deep.

Yes, I know. Off topic. Uh, well, if we refinish furniture, we can at least ameliorate one effect of a recession.

When it comes to Bush and spending, the Congress is the culprit there, and I do fault Bush for not wielding the “veto” pen the way he should have. A president can’t abolish the business cycle, and that’s for sure. But Bush sure didn’t need to re-appoint Greenspan. Thanks to Greenspan, we’re going to have to bail Fannie and Freddie.

 

[Ridgerunner]

As an accumulator of old cameras, slide rules, microscopes, etc., I am always struck by the fact that manufacturers of old tried to build things to last as long as possible. They aren’t as slick as modern stuff, but they are remarkable for the engineering and quality of build.

Probably the most beautiful mechanical works I have ever seen were in a “window posting machine” in a bank where I was fortunate enough to work when I was 13 years old. Back then, if there were child labor laws, nobody paid attention to them, and financial transactions were simple enough for a 13 year old. Anyway, this machine was huge and posted peoples’ payments and savings deposits and kept the totals MECHANICALLY throughout the business day. At the end of the day, one of my jobs was to run it through its totalling and print the results that the tellers could balance against their drawers.

I once saw a repairman take off the cover to clean and oil it. Never, at any time in my life, have I ever seen more wheels and gears and ratchets and God-only-knows-what. Some were steel. Some were brass. Some were large. Some were tiny. When he ran it through a cycle with the top off, it was an absolute marvel to watch. This thing was maybe four feet wide and two feet deep and two feet tall, and nothing but wheels and gears and gizmos. Marvelous!

Now, of course, computers do everything that thing did and more, but no computer could ever have the character and sheer beauty that thing did.

Oops! Back on topic. Let’s see. Maybe if financial transactions and the movement of money could be slower, as it was back when banks used window posting machines, the velocity of money would not be so rapid and perhaps inflation would not flare quite so readily.

 

[john1863]

The facts are undeniable, there is not a recession in our nation. However, there are many people suffering in this nation who may not agree with our views.

Be well Guy,

John

 

[ribozyme]

The thing is, they haven’t lost faith in the American dream. And too many native-born Americans have.

Since people have given up on the American Dream and the Horatio Alger mythology, do you think people will give in to economic redistribution since they lost the perception that they control their economic destiny?

I am not asking whether you prefer that or not.

 

[DebChris]

Ridgerunner,
Friday night was auction night for my parents. It was their night out. I do not remember sewing shops, but I did envy my peers who could sew their own clothes.
When I was in high school, I helped my father put the new roof on the house. He gave me a pair of his old khakis to wear. I had to wrap them a couple of times around my waist and pin in place.
I was the “token white woman” on my last full-time job. I worked in a distributionn center with Blacks, both African and American, as well as many Hispanics. It was the highest paying job that I have held to date.
Unlike other places I have worked, each shift began with department meetings to address any problems before they had a chance to become major issues. Weekly shift meetings recognized employees whose “very important” ideas had been implemented. A gift certificate accompanied this recognition and the person with the best idea earned company stock.
The company held an annual picnic, a Christmas party, and monthly provided supper (I worked second shift) for the employees. It is nice to work for a place where you, as the worker, feel valued. Contrast this job with the factory where I worked in WI. The only time the company provided a dinner for its employees was when we received Quality One from Ford Motor Company. Ford, a major customer, paid for the dinner. The factory was a union shop because we made parts for the auto industry and the auto industry will only buy from union shops. I started on the inspection line and was working shipping when I gave notice.
My parents, having also learned lessons from the Depression, also stressed the importance of saving and paying cash for everything. During those Visa commercials in which one person slows down the line by using cash, or writing a check, instead of using the debit card, I cheer for the person who pays with cash.

 

[Ridgerunner]

Since people have given up on the American Dream and the Horatio Alger mythology, do you think people will give in to economic redistribution since they lost the perception that they control their economic destiny?

I am not asking whether you prefer that or not.

I don’t know how many people have given up on the American Dream. Perhaps you can quantify how many no longer believe they can improve their lot in life by effort.

But looking at political contests as an indicator, it tentatively appears that about 50% of the populace thinks increasing taxes and instituting massively expensive government redistribution schemes is the way to go. Whether people really understand the consequences is another question.

My guess is that if redistributive policies are not implemented before the current down segment of the business cycle is over, the percentage of those favoring the same will wane back down to the 25% or so that seems to be the irreducible core of the committed left in this country. If, however, increased taxation and big, largely debt-financed redistribution programs are implemented, the down cycle will become relatively permanent, as it was in Britain before Margaret Thatcher, and it is difficult to know at what point there will be some sort of revolt against it. I frankly doubt there are sufficient numbers in this country who will be “net gainers” under socialism to give it more than a temporary popularity.

 

[Ridgerunner]

Ridgerunner,
My parents, having also learned lessons from the Depression, also stressed the importance of saving and paying cash for everything. During those Visa commercials in which one person slows down the line by using cash, or writing a check, instead of using the debit card, I cheer for the person who pays with cash.

I often wonder how much of the current economic pinch is really due to low wages and how much is due to overconsumption that is hard for people to recognize when it occurs. I think it’s very easy for people to look at the consumption around them and assume something “must be wrong with me” if they don’t match it. People often seem to try to remedy that through the use of credit. If a person has enough debt, it really doesn’t matter how much he makes, he’s still in trouble.

Part of my job includes doing real estate closings. Anymore, banks and mortgage companies “outsource” closings entirely and simply send the package to a title company. I’ll confess I peek at the loan applications that come with the packages. I am simply baffled at how many of those people can possibly make it, and yet they’re getting “prime” loans 99% of the time. (No wonder Fannie and Freddie are in trouble) Absolutely everybody has at least some card debt and auto debt. Almost never does the wife not work.

I don’t wish to romanticize Hispanics, and I realize I’m seeing the ones who “qualify”, not the ones who don’t. But they almost never have consumer debt other than the home mortgage. Some of them can’t even speak English; virtually none can speak it well, and virtually all work line jobs. Half the time or more, the wife doesn’t work outside the home. But, knowing what the local factories pay, I can readily calculate from their W-2s that there’s a lot of overtime being worked. (Shame on me for looking) Of course, they’re also buying more modest homes than are the “Anglos”. Very big buyers of “fixer uppers”. By my observation, they do fix them up, too. In my town, at least, you can drive through the older parts of town and tell which ones they own most of the time. They’re like an “urban renewal” project, but without government money to do it with.

I almost never see young “Anglo” couples buying “fixer uppers” or really old homes that sell, around here anyway, from about $30,000 for a real “fixer upper” to $80,000 for a really nice one. They are the typical buyers of the smallish new subdivision homes that start at about $160.000, but are mostly just under the $200,000 mark.

All of that is anecdotal, and I know it is. Still, I wonder a lot whether most Americans have come to conclude that “living modestly”, particularly when starting out, is somehow unworthy of human existence, particularly if it entails a substantial amount of weekend labor.

This current recession (if that’s what one wants to call it) is, in my opinion, not called a “credit crisis” for nothing.

 

[catholicbuckeye]

Of course, people use AC now, but did you ever go to an estate sale where they had one or more of those old, heavy black oscillating fans they built in the 20s through the 40s? At summer sales, they often plug them in to fan the bidders, because they almost invariably still work. Almost nobody uses them now, but can you imagine the cost/year spread out over those decades if people did?

And, other than collectors’ items at such sales, everything is dirt cheap. Perfectly good household goods of all kinds. It really is upsetting to see the ads for cheesy “financed furniture” on tv, knowing young people especially will take them up on it. You can go to estate sales and get much better stuff. Of course, they might need to refininsh some of it, but that’s not expensive if you do it yourself. Remember when there were sewing shops all over the place? (Maybe you’re not old enough). Now, the only place I see sewing machines is at estate sales. Unless they’re collectors’ items, (the fancy old treadle jobs in the cabinets) nobody wants them.

Not trying to indulge in reverse snobbery here. But I think sometimes that a lot of people don’t really realize what they could do for themselves to avoid overspending. I have noticed something interesting, though. There are a fair number of Hispanics around here now; mostly Mexicans. They work intergenerationally. Older ladies make these kids’ clothes that are dazzling. They also do the “day care”. Younger women make meals in bulk together for several families. NEVER do I see Hispanics buying homes on “no money down” deals. They always have money; a surprising amount of it. At closings, they always want to know whether there are any prepayment penalties. They are the only ones who want me to explain it carefully to them. And almost without exception, they work as line workers in local poultry plants or aluminum fabrication plants. Maybe that work doesn’t pay a “living wage” for everybody, but it sure does for them.
Of course, most of the buyers at yard sales are also Mexicans. When it comes to money, they know what they’re doing.

You are absolutely right. We live in a disposable society now. I know people who will buy “nice” furniture (i.e., artsy, cheaply built overpriced Pier One Import stuff), then move a few years later and leave it at the curb w/o a thought of taking it with them or even selling it, then buy new furniture at their new place. They could buy used furniture that was made very well and made to last - and with a little elbow grease and maybe an extra $5-$20 in material have it looking like new. But then they complain about how the economy has not afforded them the opportunity to buy a house or nice things. That the American Dream is gone or a joke.

 

[DebChris]

People discovering Goodwill and the other secondhand stores is making the news. These are people who had only bought retail in the past. Once an item is taken out of the store, it is already “used.” An automobile loses value the moment it is driven off the lot. If you buy something that is already “used,” it is still “new” to you. “I have a new dress (even if somebody owned it before me)”.
I prefer quality to quantity.
When home cost soar because of market speculation, instead of being bought as places to live, inevitably the market will bust. I had watched house prices soar in California and I was not surprised when the same thing happened with condos. Companies tried to cash in on the building frenzy. The latecomers lost their shirts.
To me, a living wage is not having the latest styles. It is, however, being able to afford a decent place to live (a small rented apartment), food on the table (casseroles and soup, not steak and lobster), clothes to wear, and public transportation (perhaps, a used car if needed for work).

St. Vincent de Paul does great work in my city providing free donated furniture to those just starting out.

 

[Bennie_P]

This is the best “recession” I have ever been in.
I am a whole lot better off then I was 6-7 years ago.
Better then what I was just a year ago.

For many people they have had to readjust to different factors in thier lives lately, which in my opinion is not really bad. There are jobs to be had, but in some cases one may have to think of a new carreer choice, get retrained and most of all change thier life style choice.

We can not count on the consumer mentality as a gage to our propsperity. You can only own so much junk. And sometimes we want more then we can afford and don’t need. That is what happen in the housing market. Too many people trying to get more home they needed or could afford.

I work with homeless men and women to become employable and find jobs. Many with bearers that the average person would find impossible to cross over. But they find jobs. sometimes it is jobs they once thought was beneath them to hold, but many times it is jobs they never dreamed of ever getting.

It is not hopless out there, just a matter of resetting one’s priorities.

Government should help in retraining and education of our work force, but it needs to be in way that gives a hand up and not make people addicted to hand outs. The economy goes up and down, the biggest problem we have is we become a people that has become isolated, weak in community and person to person support and relationships. We become a people which counts on the goverment to do for us and fix all our problems, when sometimes what really is needed is to have better and closer relationships with our neighbors, our church families, extended families and most important God.

I made some hard choices to get the job I have now. I work in the the community in which I own a home (one in which I could afford), which is the same community in which my wife works, the same community were my children go to school and most important it is in walking distance of my home parish. It wasn’t easy to be able to do this but now when we have people crying out that we are having bad economic times and are in a “recession”, My family and I are doing better then we have ever done in the past.

Priority of choices.

First priority seeking the will of God.

Tommorrow I could lose everything, but, I hope God’s Will, will still be my first priority.

 

[dessert]

My husband and I are older but not too old and have been through many job changes, no fault of ours. The idea that you will not likely be at the same job for 30 years is so true. I remember the 70’s and 80’s and 90’s. But we have been in the same house and that is what has kept us going. The American dream is to stay ahead of the game. And barter!