I
irishpatrick
Guest
**For me it is simple math. **
Obama won by about 7.5% in 2008. And, that was against a very weak candidate (McCain), and Obama won in time when the outgoing incumbent was being nearly historically maligned.
It was unlikely that any Republican could win in 2008 since the nation had so much Bush hatred. And yet, even against that backdrop, and even though Obama was young and fresh and really completely unknown, he still only won by 7.5%. Today, everyone knows Obama, he no longer has the “fresh” and “unknown” traits to help him, he will win or lose this time based on how people perceive his job performance.
**
Now, let’s consider:**
– People who voted for McCain in 2008 will vote for Romney. Obama will not get those votes, so Romney starts with a high vote base (45.60%).
– 54% of the electorate in 2008 were Protestants and most of them voted for McCain (by 54% to 46%). More Protestants will vote this time, and they are very motivated this time—and it seems likely that they will vote in even higher percentages for Romney. So, just looking at the Protestant vote, we can easily see a shift of 3-5,000,000 votes to the Romney column (more Protestant voters, and higher percentages voting for Romney equals a significant vote swing).
– Catholics helped elect Obama in 2008 by giving him 54% of the Catholic vote–that will not happen, we will see around 45-46% (far less than the 54% he received last time). This shift can easily equate to a 3,000,000 vote swing to Romney. We must recall that George W. Bush won the Catholic vote in 2004 by 5% and this time around things are far different, for Catholics, than they were then.
– Historically undecided voters rarely break for the incumbent (if they were happy with the incumbent, they would not be undecided), which means Romney will get a heavy percentage of the undecided voters.
– The economy is a mess and people will remember that when they enter the voting booth.
– Obama cannot break the 50% on the major polls…a very bad sign for his campaign.
– Republicans are energized–Democrats are not.
Romney by 6-10%.
Obama won by about 7.5% in 2008. And, that was against a very weak candidate (McCain), and Obama won in time when the outgoing incumbent was being nearly historically maligned.
It was unlikely that any Republican could win in 2008 since the nation had so much Bush hatred. And yet, even against that backdrop, and even though Obama was young and fresh and really completely unknown, he still only won by 7.5%. Today, everyone knows Obama, he no longer has the “fresh” and “unknown” traits to help him, he will win or lose this time based on how people perceive his job performance.
**
Now, let’s consider:**
– People who voted for McCain in 2008 will vote for Romney. Obama will not get those votes, so Romney starts with a high vote base (45.60%).
– 54% of the electorate in 2008 were Protestants and most of them voted for McCain (by 54% to 46%). More Protestants will vote this time, and they are very motivated this time—and it seems likely that they will vote in even higher percentages for Romney. So, just looking at the Protestant vote, we can easily see a shift of 3-5,000,000 votes to the Romney column (more Protestant voters, and higher percentages voting for Romney equals a significant vote swing).
– Catholics helped elect Obama in 2008 by giving him 54% of the Catholic vote–that will not happen, we will see around 45-46% (far less than the 54% he received last time). This shift can easily equate to a 3,000,000 vote swing to Romney. We must recall that George W. Bush won the Catholic vote in 2004 by 5% and this time around things are far different, for Catholics, than they were then.
– Historically undecided voters rarely break for the incumbent (if they were happy with the incumbent, they would not be undecided), which means Romney will get a heavy percentage of the undecided voters.
– The economy is a mess and people will remember that when they enter the voting booth.
– Obama cannot break the 50% on the major polls…a very bad sign for his campaign.
– Republicans are energized–Democrats are not.
Romney by 6-10%.
