Obama and Romney Hit Final Stretch Part 3

[sweetcharity]

I have been noticing something on Yahoo. I don’t really read the political stories, I read the comments.

I am very surprised at what I have been observing. My observation has to do with the like/dislike buttons.

A simple summary is that Mitt Romney seems to be much more popular that President Obama.

Just read the comments and look at the like/dislike numbers

 

[oldcelt]

Final Iowa poll gives Obama a 5-point edge

DES MOINES, Iowa — Iowans are feeling more optimistic about where the nation is headed, and they’re giving President Obama the credit.

Obama is up 5 points in Iowa, leading Republican Mitt Romney 47% to 42%, according to a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, although the results also contain signs of hope for Romney, political strategists said.

usatoday.com/story/news/2012/11/03/obama-leads-in-iowa-poll/1679721/

 

[estesbob]

I can’t wait for the post election…period.

John

 

[He_Man]

usatoday.com/story/news/2012/11/03/obama-leads-in-iowa-poll/1679721/

This has to be the most crazy election in a long time. Literally polls with 7 point differences. Some polls have Romney up in Iowa. It all comes down to which polls have guessed at the electorate makeup and voting trends the best.

 

[meltzerboy]

This has to be the most crazy election in a long time. Literally polls with 7 point differences. Some polls have Romney up in Iowa. It all comes down to which polls have guessed at the electorate makeup and voting trends the best.

Although Nate Silver himself has been criticized for bias (BTW, he stated on MSNBC that he is not voting for anyone this election), he takes an average of all the polls other than the internal polls, I believe. That may be the best way of doing it. With regard to PA, according to Silver, none of the 24 polls he has examined predict that Romney will win the state. I think that Gallup has consistently favored Romney as the winner of the election.

 

[epan]

So what though? That’s the beauty of federalism. Each state can guess decide how to govern itself.

Both sides jerrymander, both sides fillibuster, both sides mess with voting laws.

The Bush Machine will deliver FL to Romney. It would be shocking if it went the other way. I would expect Illinois to be delivered to Obama regardless of how the vote actually goes. The critical state for Romney is Ohio. If he can win it, then his path is much easier than if he doesn’t, in terms of electoral votes.

If you look at it from the electoral college perspective, Obama has a much easier path to follow. There are a number of permutations which give him the White House.

I think I would like to see a tie, and for house to put Obama in, and for the Senate to install Ryan. That would be a lot more entertaining than any party winning. And we might actually find that a split ticket could work in a bipartisan way with the recalcitrant Congress.

 

[He_Man]

The Bush Machine will deliver FL to Romney. It would be shocking if it went the other way. I would expect Illinois to be delivered to Obama regardless of how the vote actually goes. The critical state for Romney is Ohio. If he can win it, then his path is much easier than if he doesn’t, in terms of electoral votes.

If you look at it from the electoral college perspective, Obama has a much easier path to follow. There are a number of permutations which give him the White House.

I think I would like to see a tie, and for house to put Obama in, and for the Senate to install Ryan. That would be a lot more entertaining than any party winning. And we might actually find that a split ticket could work in a bipartisan way with the recalcitrant Congress.

Yeah, Obama has the easier path, because he is defending states that went blue in most cases. Romney has to maintain and gain. It sounds trite, but it really does come down to Ohio. Of course, if Romney wins CO, Iowa, and NH, he’s got the 20 from Ohio. Polls favor Obama in Ohio, but early voting trends favor Romney, assuming his constituents show up en masse on Nov 6th.

We’ll see who turns out their voters.

 

[He_Man]

Although Nate Silver himself has been criticized for bias (BTW, he stated on MSNBC that he is not voting for anyone this election), he takes an average of all the polls other than the internal polls, I believe. That may be the best way of doing it. With regard to PA, according to Silver, none of the 24 polls he has examined predict that Romney will win the state. I think that Gallup has consistently favored Romney as the winner of the election.

The main problem here is you are averaging polls with no track record to speak of. So there are plusses and minuses. If the polls are dead on, more gives you a better sample. If they are shoddy polls, you lose efficacy. RCP doesn’t account for every poll for this reason. Hence, they don;t show the Susquehanna PA poll where Romney was up.

 

[meltzerboy]

The Bush Machine will deliver FL to Romney. It would be shocking if it went the other way. I would expect Illinois to be delivered to Obama regardless of how the vote actually goes. The critical state for Romney is Ohio. If he can win it, then his path is much easier than if he doesn’t, in terms of electoral votes.

If you look at it from the electoral college perspective, Obama has a much easier path to follow. There are a number of permutations which give him the White House.

I think I would like to see a tie, and for house to put Obama in, and for the Senate to install Ryan. That would be a lot more entertaining than any party winning. And we might actually find that a split ticket could work in a bipartisan way with the recalcitrant Congress.

I think a popular vote and electoral college split, as in 2000, would be bad and an electoral college tie of 269 each would be a nightmare, whether in the form of an Obama-Ryan win or a Romney-Biden win. These far-fetched nightmare scenarios are possible, however, and written into the Constitution.

 

[epan]

Simon Jackman at Stanford uses a sophisticated poll averaging model, which takes into account sample sizes, and other factors such as historic bias of the particular poll. His verdict is that even with the increased polling, and a very large sample reported yesterday, that the margin between them falls well within the range of statistical error. However, he concludes that there is a 70% probability, based on his model, that Obama is leading Romney in the popular vote.

I think this one is a toss up. A lot will depend on which party is more successful in manipulating the polls.

 

[He_Man]

Simon Jackman at Stanford uses a sophisticated poll averaging model, which takes into account sample sizes, and other factors such as historic bias of the particular poll. His verdict is that even with the increased polling, and a very large sample reported yesterday, that the margin between them falls well within the range of statistical error. However, he concludes that there is a 70% probability, based on his model, that Obama is leading Romney in the popular vote.

I think this one is a toss up. A lot will depend on which party is more successful in manipulating the polls.

Interesting. I’ll have to look him up. In the end, none of us are experts; we just report what we read and hear and hope the person knows what they are talking about. I could post many links to support either side, but I have to assume the person is credible. Granted, if you have a poor enough track record, it is hard to maintain funding and income.

 

[Morwenna]

Romney asks Colorado to “walk with me” at giant Comfort Dental rally

Before a boisterous crowd of 17,000 at Comfort Dental Amphitheatre — the largest crowd of the campaign for a Romney rally in Colorado — Romney said Obama had failed to live up to his promises and said he would break the gridlock in Washington.

The speech — crafted to sum up the themes of the campaign in one 20-minute flurry — was similar to one Romney gave at a rally Friday night in West Chester, Ohio, before a crowd of at least 18,000.

Full article: denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_21922720/romney-rally-at-comfort-dental-amphitheatre-may-be

I have to admit I’m surprised by these numbers … 17,000 in CO, and 18,000 in OH? Wow … I honestly wouldn’t have expected crowds of that size.

Interesting.

 

[Pork_Roll]

I have to admit I’m surprised by these numbers … 17,000 in CO, and 18,000 in OH? Wow … I honestly wouldn’t have expected crowds of that size.

Who goes to these things and why? Your time would be much better spent taking vitamins, exercising or praying.

 

[rlg94086]

Who goes to these things and why? Your time would be much better spent **taking vitamins, exercising **or praying.

I understand “praying,” but “taking vitamins, exercising?”

…and, I notice you list those before praying.

I’m pretty certain that people can take vitamins, exercise, pray, and attend political rallies. In fact, it seems that soon-to-be-VP Ryan does.

 

[TexCatholic4JMJ]

I have to admit I’m surprised by these numbers … 17,000 in CO, and 18,000 in OH? Wow … I honestly wouldn’t have expected crowds of that size.

Interesting.

Don’t know about the one in CO, but I heard it reported that Ohio’s crowd was 30,000. I also
saw that Obama had 2800 on the same day. This was on Drudge so many of you may want
to dismiss it. That’s okay, too.

 

[epan]

I think a popular vote and electoral college split, as in 2000, would be bad and an electoral college tie of 269 each would be a nightmare, whether in the form of an Obama-Ryan win or a Romney-Biden win. These far-fetched nightmare scenarios are possible, however, and written into the Constitution.

I wonder if the legislative gridlock could get any worse? No matter who is elected, 50% of the electorate will be dissatisfied. I’m not so sure that a split ticket would be any worse.

The only people who support the President, no matter who he or she is, are the military, though they are less happy when a democrat is their commander in chief. In Iraq, there was a democratic club in the Green Zone, which met secretly. heheh.

Granted that Obama step in over his head into a big pile of it, left by his predecessor. But still, his performance has been less than spectacular. I have yet to hear him elucidate a plan for his second term, which I find very discouraging.

Romney’s plan is known not to work from history. All that trickle down does is enrich the top 10%, which failing to improve the lot of anyone else. Nothing trickles down. But then, he started changing his plan every time he opened his mouth. So, just as I was starting to warm up to him, he started vacillating. I don’t believe anything he says now.

So, the choices are just plain bad.

If the Catholic bishops think that Romney is on their side, they might be getting a huge surprise, if Romney is elected. How quickly they have forgotten that he pretty much invented Obamacare, which is their principal complaint about Obama. Romney invented it, and implemented it in Massachusetts.

 

[Pork_Roll]

If the Catholic bishops think that Romney is on their side, they might be getting a huge surprise, if Romney is elected. How quickly they have forgotten that he pretty much invented Obamacare, which is their principal complaint about Obama. Romney invented it, and implemented it in Massachusetts.

I think we are all naively hoping that Romney will overturn Roe vs. Wade. If GWB couldn’t overturn Roe vs. Wade in his 8 years, I doubt that Romney can do it. Romney is using the pro-life movement for votes.

What we need is an outspoken pro-life president who isn’t afraid of alienating pro-choice voters like Romney is. I thought Santorum would have been that person. But we got Romney. What choices do we have?

 

[meltzerboy]

I think we are all naively hoping that Romney will overturn Roe vs. Wade. If GWB couldn’t overturn Roe vs. Wade in his 8 years, I doubt that Romney can do it. The GOP is using the pro-life movement for votes. They only care about money.

What we need is an outspoken pro-life president who isn’t afraid of alienating pro-choice voters like Romney is. I thought Santorum would have been that person. But we got Romney. We don’t have any choice, only the lesser of evils.

Wait for Paul Ryan then: 2016 or 2020. (Talk about a nightmare scenario.)

 

[meltzerboy]

Romney asks Colorado to “walk with me” at giant Comfort Dental rally

Before a boisterous crowd of 17,000 at Comfort Dental Amphitheatre — the largest crowd of the campaign for a Romney rally in Colorado — Romney said Obama had failed to live up to his promises and said he would break the gridlock in Washington.

The speech — crafted to sum up the themes of the campaign in one 20-minute flurry — was similar to one Romney gave at a rally Friday night in West Chester, Ohio, before a crowd of at least 18,000.

Full article: denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_21922720/romney-rally-at-comfort-dental-amphitheatre-may-be

I have to admit I’m surprised by these numbers … 17,000 in CO, and 18,000 in OH? Wow … I honestly wouldn’t have expected crowds of that size.

Interesting.

Why assume they are all Romney supporters (or Obama supporters)? Some may just be curious to see and hear Romney and Ryan. If Romney were in my town, I would attend the rally even though I don’t support him.

 

[rlg94086]

I think we are all naively hoping that Romney will overturn Roe vs. Wade. If GWB couldn’t overturn Roe vs. Wade in his 8 years, I doubt that Romney can do it. Romney is using the pro-life movement for votes.

What we need is an outspoken pro-life president who isn’t afraid of alienating pro-choice voters like Romney is. I thought Santorum would have been that person. But we got Romney. What choices do we have?

Romney won’t overturn Roe v Wade. He is going to be President, not a Supreme Court Justice…talk about naive. First, you need to actually understand the roles of the various branches of government.