Obama and Romney Hit Final Stretch Part 3

[Morwenna]

Why assume they are all Romney supporters (or Obama supporters)? Some may just be curious to see and hear Romney and Ryan. If Romney were in my town, I would attend the rally even though I don’t support him.

Why assume that that’s what I assume?

 

[meltzerboy]

Why assume that that’s what I assume?

Why assume that I assume that’s what you assume? I meant why should anyone assume, not you in particular.

 

[Morwenna]

Why assume that I assume that’s what you assume? I meant why should anyone assume, not you in particular.

This is starting to sound like "how much wood would a woodchuck chuck, if a woodchuck could chuck wood … "

 

[_Abyssinia]

All Tied Up 47 to 47 in Pennsylvania — Susquehanna Polling & Research

Romney was up 4 in their last poll. They apparently predicted Corbett’s victory by 1 point off, Obama by 10 in 2008, he won by 8 and Toomey’s victory

All Tied up 47 to 47 in New Hampshire — Granite State Poll

Romney leads 22 points with independents. 4% are undecided and undecideds lean against the incumbent

Dispatch Poll: Ohio’s a toss-up

Sample republican 36%, democrat 40%, 21% independents. The poll almost give demcorats the turn out advantage they had in 2008 of plus 5

twitlonger.com/show/jsavqc

PA math

The low-down on the Keystone State:

Broad context: PA outside of Philly County has been trending red for 20 years. It has so far been checked by Dem turnout in Philly County, but Philly County’s population has been flat. So turnout increases in the county are from turnout machines/enthusiasm alone. At some point, that could breakdown.

So assume:

(a) Total PA turnout is up 3% over 2008. Philly County comprises 11.5% of total PA electorate (similar to 2004, less than 2008).

(b) Romney wins non-Philly county 54-46. (Slightly better than Bush '04, who won 52.5 to 47.5)

Then:

Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.

Tweak the assumptions to lower Philly turnout, increase non-Philly turnout, increase Romney share of non-Philly. And Keystone State goes red.

 

[Tampa_Dave]

The Bush Machine will deliver FL to Romney. It would be shocking if it went the other way. I would expect Illinois to be delivered to Obama regardless of how the vote actually goes. The critical state for Romney is Ohio. If he can win it, then his path is much easier than if he doesn’t, in terms of electoral votes.

If you look at it from the electoral college perspective, Obama has a much easier path to follow. There are a number of permutations which give him the White House.

I think I would like to see a tie, and for house to put Obama in, and for the Senate to install Ryan. That would be a lot more entertaining than any party winning. And we might actually find that a split ticket could work in a bipartisan way with the recalcitrant Congress.

With a Republican House and Democratic Senate, you are looking at Romney and Biden in the White House, I believe.

 

[Tampa_Dave]

Interesting. I’ll have to look him up. In the end, none of us are experts; we just report what we read and hear and hope the person knows what they are talking about. , but I have to assume the person is credible. Granted, if you have a poor enough track record, it is hard to maintain funding and income.

That’s what we do here at Catholic Answers! For every apple you share with the CA Forum, I’ll show you an orange.

 

[epan]

Wait for Paul Ryan then: 2016 or 2020. (Talk about a nightmare scenario.)

If I had to put money down, I would predict that he will be shoved aside by Jeb Bush. I don’t think Ryan is a contender. I hope I am right about that. He is rather frightening, when you dig into his ideas.

 

[epan]

With a Republican House and Democratic Senate, you are looking at Romney and Biden in the White House, I believe.

Yes, I know that is the prediction. It is the incoming Congress which would be selecting the office holders. So, this would depend on the results of the election… if, no electoral delegate flipped. All it would take is one. There is no legal requirement for a delegate to vote in a way reflecting the votes cast by the voters they represent.

I see it as unlikely that FL will have a democratic result. The elections commission there is just too corrupt. I hope I am wrong about that, but I think that the 2000 election emboldened them, and they have had 12 years to further consolidate their power.

BUT, if the extremely unlikely event were to occur, that Obama takes FL, and there is an electoral tie, I would be very surprised if a FL electoral delegate didn’t flip, and give the election to Romney. The question then would be if another close state’s delegates would start flipping, and we would end up with a scenario in which the electors from close states stopped representing their own voters.

Maybe this is far fetched. Not impossible though.

 

[Tampa_Dave]

Romney asks Colorado to “walk with me” at giant Comfort Dental rally

Before a boisterous crowd of 17,000 at Comfort Dental Amphitheatre — the largest crowd of the campaign for a Romney rally in Colorado — Romney said Obama had failed to live up to his promises and said he would break the gridlock in Washington.

The speech — crafted to sum up the themes of the campaign in one 20-minute flurry — was similar to one Romney gave at a rally Friday night in West Chester, Ohio, before a crowd of at least 18,000.

Full article: denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_21922720/romney-rally-at-comfort-dental-amphitheatre-may-be

I have to admit I’m surprised by these numbers … 17,000 in CO, and 18,000 in OH? Wow … I honestly wouldn’t have expected crowds of that size.

Interesting.

At the same time Obama only drew 2,800 in Mentor, Ohio, Romney drew a crowd of 30,000 in West Chester Township, Ohio.

whiotv.com/news/news/national-govt-politics/30000-turn-out-for-romney-in-west-chester/nSwb6/

 

[epan]

At the same time Obama only drew 2,800 in Mentor, Ohio, Romney drew a crowd of 30,000 in West Chester Township, Ohio.

whiotv.com/news/news/national-govt-politics/30000-turn-out-for-romney-in-west-chester/nSwb6/

Denver proper has a population of 600,000. The metropolitan area has a population of 2.5 million.

18,000 is about 3% of 600,000, and 0.7% of 2.5 million.

Mentor, Ohio has a population of 47,100. 2,800 showing up is 5% of the local population.

The West Chester number is impressive. The town has only 60,000 people. In California, where I have lived, the population is divided. The urban areas tend to vote demo, and the rural areas vote republican. There are a few well known conservative urban areas which are the exception.

If Romney went to Orange County CA, I would expect him to draw a huge crowd. If he went to a stadium in San Francisco, I would not expect that to happen. The converse for Obama.

 

[Tampa_Dave]

Denver proper has a population of 600,000. The metropolitan area has a population of 2.5 million.

18,000 is about 3% of 600,000, and 0.7% of 2.5 million.

Mentor, Ohio has a population of 47,100. 2,800 showing up is 5% of the local population.

The West Chester number is impressive. The town has only 60,000 people. In California, where I have lived, the population is divided. The urban areas tend to vote demo, and the rural areas vote republican. There are a few well known conservative urban areas which are the exception.

If Romney went to Orange County CA, I would expect him to draw a huge crowd. If he went to a stadium in San Francisco, I would not expect that to happen. The converse for Obama.

Can you imagine the sights at a Romney rally in San Francisco?

 

[stinkcat_14]

With a Republican House and Democratic Senate, you are looking at Romney and Biden in the White House, I believe.

Since the vice president is pretty much worthless anyway, at least Biden would be more amusing. Although I imagine that he would have even less to do than a normal vice president.

 

[Tampa_Dave]

Dead heat for Romney and Obama in latest Michigan poll
Posted: Nov 04, 2012 7:39 AM EST Updated: Nov 04, 2012 8:10 AM EST

Who are you most likely to vote for in the Presidential election - Democratic President Barack Obama, or Republican Nominee, Governor Mitt Romney, another candidate, or are you undecided?

Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.86%
President Barack Obama 46.24%
Another candidate 4.94%
Undecided 1.96%

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters for Fox 2 News Detroit to determine their voting and issue preferences on the Presidential election.

The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.24% with a confidence level of 95%.

myfoxdetroit.com/story/19996781/2012/11/04/romney-and-obama-in-dead-heat-in-latest-michigan-poll

 

[Pitcharan]

With all due respect, I don’t feel that as a non-American that it’s really any of your business.

Every country’s election is of interest to every other country. Your language betrays immature arrogance.

 

[Tampa_Dave]

Trib poll shows presidential race in Pennsylvania remains too close to call

President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.

The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising.

“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points.

http://triblive.com/politics/politi...esident-lee-presidential-voters#ixzz2BGCh3u1j

 

[Pitcharan]

It’s nice to hear from someone feeling smug about the endless American decline which will occur if Obama is re-elected! As for me, it’s not about my guy against your guy. It’s about saving America for my daughters and granddaughter. We’re finished, without hope, if Obama wins. You can gloat all you want while celebrating America’s ruin, and the concomitant destruction of Christianity in America. Rob

No, no, no. I wish no nation’s ruin. It is for the good of your country and Christianity that I want Obama to win. You have your perceptions and I have mine. We may agree to disagree, but not allege bad intentions.

 

[epan]

Since the vice president is pretty much worthless anyway, at least Biden would be more amusing. Although I imagine that he would have even less to do than a normal vice president.

I would have liked to mix up the debates a bit. I thought that Romney and Biden were more intellectual equals, and would have been really fun to watch debating. Mr. Obama is reserved by nature in discussions, and refused to sink to Mr Romney’s level, which helped Romney keep it more civil than he seemed to want to. But Biden would have probably met him with the same in turn, plus interest. He sticks his foot in his mouth a lot, like Romney, but he can also be charming and witty at times. That would have been a fun discussion.

Probably the starkest contrast in the contest are Ryan’s ideas and Obama’s ideas. I would have liked to see them in a head on debate.

 

[_Abyssinia]

Reporter Erin McPike, reporter for real clear politics said on Fox news that whe nelections are tight in Ohio they have favoured republicans. What is the evidence?

New poll shows Romney leading Obama by 1 in Michigan

Full results here. The sample is 44% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 21% Independent, or D+9 (see page 22).

By comparison, turnout in the 2008 presidential election, when Obama-mania was at its peak, was D+12.

So D+9 seems like a reasonable (that is, unskewed) sample.

twitter.com/LSchweikart/status/265075567542546432

t.co/i64lMYVb OH spreadsheet BTW, Cuyahoga absentees down 25k net from 08, Rs make that up in Green, Warren + 3 rural cos

twitter.com/ali/status/265073757654220801

Dem vote-rich Cuyahoga county #OHIO. 241,338 Absentee (Today, with 1.5 early voting days to go), 273,123 (2008)

Columbus Dispatch poll that has Romney at 48%, Obama 50% - this poll has predicted the winner in each Ohio presidential election since 1976 but in 2006 senate election this poll had Sherrod Brown at 62% to 38% and he won 56% to 44%. 2004 election this poll showed tie between Kerry and Bush and and Kerry got 49% to Bush 51%

Poll says

Obama leads by 15 points among the 40 percent-plus of voters who say they have or will cast an early ballot. Romney leads by 11 points with those who plan to vote on Election Day. Through Friday, more than 1.6 million Ohioans had cast an early ballot

CNN sys Romney/Ryan hve 13 point lead with those who have not voted along with absentee ballot difference

Mehmentum: Clinton underwhelms in Ohio

Students for Obama: ‘Obama doesn’t deserve 4 more years’

 

[_Abyssinia]

‘Hitler’ appears on Ohio voter registration form

 

[Tampa_Dave]

FOX News just reported that 500 retired Admirals and Generals will collectively announce their endorsement of Mitt Romney tomorrow. Very impressive.