On limiting population growth thru contraception

[Nate13]

I was looking for you to provide sources to back your claim.

Abiotic oil is an interesting theory I’m sure we will know whether that theory holds water here within the next 5-10 years though. I’d also ask that even if the oil did exist and it was just much deeper down, wouldn’t that mean higher prices since it was harder to get out?

 

[StAnastasia]

I was looking for you to provide sources to back your claim.

"Although the abiogenic hypothesis was accepted by many geologists in the former Soviet Union, it allegedly fell out of favor because it never made any useful prediction for the discovery of oil deposits.[1] Most geologists now consider the abiogenic formation of petroleum scientifically unsupported.[1] The abiogenic origin of petroleum has also recently been reviewed in detail by Glasby, who raises a number of objections, including that there is no direct evidence to date of abiogenic petroleum (liquid crude oil and long-chain hydrocarbon compounds).[1]

"It has been recently discovered that thermophilic bacteria, in the sea bottom and in cooling magma, produce methane and hydrocarbon gases,[3][4] but studies indicate they are not produced in commercially significant quantities (i.e. in extracted hydrocarbon gases, the median abiogenic hydrocarbon content is 0.02%).[5]

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin

 

[Contarini]

“So Moses said, “This is what the LORD says: ‘About midnight I will go throughout Egypt. 5 Every firstborn son in Egypt will die, from the firstborn son of Pharaoh, who sits on the throne, to the firstborn son of the female slave, who is at her hand mill, and all the firstborn of the cattle as well.”
Exodus 11:4-6

"Samuel said to Saul, “I am the one the LORD sent to anoint you king over his people Israel; so listen now to the message from the LORD. 2 This is what the LORD Almighty says: ‘I will punish the Amalekites for what they did to Israel when they waylaid them as they came up from Egypt. 3 Now go, attack the Amalekites and totally destroy[a] all that belongs to them. Do not spare them; put to death men and women, children and infants, cattle and sheep, camels and donkeys.’” "
1 Samuel 15:1-3

God did order Harem warfare and the killing of infants… Saul is later reprimanded by God for leaving some of the animals alive… Unless your arguing that these words are misplaced then I don’t see what the point is in denying it happened. This type of warfare was also practiced in the Middle Ages. If a city would not surrender, everyone inside would be killed.

One OT example that complicates the language of God “doing” things is 1 Chron. 21:1. There we’re told that “Satan” did something that 2 Sam. 24 says God did.

Christians have long recognized that OT language about God is highly anthropomorphic and should not necessarily be read literally.

As to the historical question of whether the massacres happened–of course massacres have often occurred historically, but they rarely actually killed every single person. One confusing point is that often the perpetrators would speak as if they killed everyone, when other sources show that they didn’t–this surprises us because we’d expect them to play down their atrocity. Even the Mongols may well have exaggerated their own ferocity.

I’m not disputing that behind the accounts in Joshua lie some very violent acts. But the language of total destruction is, according to one scholarly article I’ve read, a literary formula common in ancient descriptions of warfare. Furthermore, the book of Joshua (and the Torah) is almost certainly written centuries after the event and reflects the theological concerns of the authors. I’m not saying that it’s ahistorical, only that, again, there’s going to be a good deal of hyperbole.

Edwin

 

[buffalo]

Abiotic oil is an interesting theory I’m sure we will know whether that theory holds water here within the next 5-10 years though. I’d also ask that even if the oil did exist and it was just much deeper down, wouldn’t that mean higher prices since it was harder to get out?

No, it is filling the already depleted holes.

Abiotic Oil a Theory Worth Exploring

Production at the oil field, deep in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana, was supposed to have declined years ago. And for a while, it behaved like any normal field: Following its 1973 discovery, Eugene Island 330’s output peaked at about 15,000 barrels a day. By 1989, production had slowed to about 4,000 barrels a day.
Then suddenly—some say almost inexplicably—Eugene Island’s fortunes reversed. The field, operated by PennzEnergy Co., is now producing 13,000 barrels a day, and probable reserves have rocketed to more than 400 million barrels from 60 million. Stranger still, scientists studying the field say the crude coming out of the pipe is of a geological age quite different from the oil that gushed 10 years ago.

 

[You]

You’re confusing life span with life expectancy.

There is no difference in the real world.

 

[buffalo]

New study appears to support theory of abiotic oil

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In Situ Diamond-Anvil Cell Observations of Methanogenesis at High Pressures and Temperatures

 

[You]

The days of a man are 70. Days meaning years. Can you guess when that was spoken and by whom?

I know Sarah, I think, gave birth at 65. I know what you mean.

These average mortality figures are misleading as they include infant mortality. People typically lived much longer than 30-40 in the past, if they made it out of childhood.

Yes, infant mortality could reduce the population drastically. And without any medicine, illness would account for many adults dying before middle age.

 

[Warrior1979]

I was looking for you to provide sources to back your claim.

Naturally, it is difficult to do, because you’re asking to disprove something that doesn’t exist in the first place.

If oil is abiotic, then why do wells run dry? A tiny and insignificat percentage of wells that seem to act in some way is not indicative of the way all wells work. It can more readily be explained by geologic factors.

And, just the fact that wells run dry demonstrates that even if oil were abiotic, it cannot replenish itself anywhere near the rate that it is being used up.

 

[buffalo]

Naturally, it is difficult to do, because you’re asking to disprove something that doesn’t exist in the first place.

If oil is abiotic, then why do wells run dry? A tiny and insignificat percentage of wells that seem to act in some way is not indicative of the way all wells work. It can more readily be explained by geologic factors.

And, just the fact that wells run dry demonstrates that even if oil were abiotic, it cannot replenish itself anywhere near the rate that it is being used up.

Some will run dry due to original fissures being closed off.

There is no basis for your last statement. We do not know the rate of abiotic oil production.

 

[StAnastasia]

Abiotic oil is an interesting theory I’m sure we will know whether that theory holds water here within the next 5-10 years though. I’d also ask that even if the oil did exist and it was just much deeper down, wouldn’t that mean higher prices since it was harder to get out?

Nate, it’s a theory without a proven track record. It will be interesting to see what the future holds; Homo sapiens is gambling with its future by hoping the earth can sustain nine billion of us in 2050. I’m not morally opposed to gambling per se, but gambling with human life…

 

[Warrior1979]

Some will run dry due to original fissures being closed off.

If history is any lesson, a whole lot of wells will run dry…not “some.”

There is no basis for your last statement. We do not know the rate of abiotic oil production.

There is plenty of basis. If wells run dry, then it is a given that the rate of reproduction is well below what it necessary to sustain itself…and that is all that matters.

 

[buffalo]

If history is any lesson, a whole lot of wells will run dry…not “some.”

There is plenty of basis. If wells run dry, then it is a given that the rate of reproduction is well below what it necessary to sustain itself…and that is all that matters.

Most of the wells are shallow. They are not being replenished. We need to study the ones that are.

Has anyone here looked at the reserves and new finds? There is a lot of oil and gas.

 

[StAnastasia]

There is plenty of basis. If wells run dry, then it is a given that the rate of reproduction is well below what it necessary to sustain itself…and that is all that matters.

Warrior, I work with an oil producer (a retired Catholic physicist). More and more of his wells are coming up dry. Mexico’s Cantartell field is in decline, as is the al Burgan field. Russian roulette with our grandkids?

 

[Nate13]

Nate, it’s a theory without a proven track record. It will be interesting to see what the future holds; Homo sapiens is gambling with its future by hoping the earth can sustain nine billion of us in 2050. I’m not morally opposed to gambling per se, but gambling with human life…

Warrior, I work with an oil producer (a retired Catholic physicist). More and more of his wells are coming up dry. Mexico’s Cantartell field is in decline, as is the al Burgan field. Russian roulette with our grandkids?

The United States population is not going to increase any noticeable amount between now and 2050 with the current birth rate which is even now still on the downhill. The only reason our population has gone up in recent year is because of immigration. Other countries will do what they want and will have to deal with the consequences, but please stop with all this **** about ever increasing populations. I’m also waiting to your response about how the smart bet is teaching NFP as a long term solution and whether you support that. It would seem from your other conclusions this would be the logical step to take.

I’d also point out that its a gamble either way. If we start pushing all of our resources into alternative energy now and getting out of oil only to find out later that we have a whole bunch more than we though, we could risk falling behind to other countries and leaving ourselves vulnerable. You and I both know that alternative energy is more expensive than oil, coal, and natural gas and is also much more unreliable. If your wrong and the crisis isn’t right over the hill, you could do a lot of damage to the U.S economy and the poorest of the poor who are already struggling with energy costs.

You also risk wasting a ton of money building renewable energy too soon. Windmills and solar panel technology have advances each year that make them more efficient. If technology advanced to a point where we were able to store massive amounts of energy for even just periods of days, windmills would become a much more viable solution since there would be a way to regulate their output and they could run and peak efficiency round the clock. In other words don’t act like all the risk is in not acting now. Your taking a big bet as well. I for one support providing grants to continue developing these ideas, but before we make the leap and go all in on them we better be damn sure oil is done for. I hope you also support making sure our military remains number 1 in the world so we can defend all these renewable sources from other countries who were not as smart if a crisis should occur

 

[Warrior1979]

Most of the wells are shallow. They are not being replenished. We need to study the ones that are.

We can study them all they want, but that won’t change anything. Studying is not a substitute for actual use.

Has anyone here looked at the reserves and new finds? There is a lot of oil and gas.

Sure there is. Problem is, the easy oil has been found. EROEI continues to decrease. You can become wealthy if you can spend $1 and get $1.50 back. But you won’t get wealthy if you spend $1 to get 50 cents backs, no matter how hard you try. That’s the problem we’re faced with.

The vast majority of people view this issue superficially. The devil is in the details.

 

[Nate13]

We can study them all they want, but that won’t change anything. Studying is not a substitute for actual use.

Sure there is. Problem is, the easy oil has been found. EROEI continues to decrease. You can become wealthy if you can spend $1 and get $1.50 back. But you won’t get wealthy if you spend $1 to get 50 cents backs, no matter how hard you try. That’s the problem we’re faced with.

The vast majority of people view this issue superficially. The devil is in the details.

This is a respectable point. All oil is not the same. They will make a profit though. If it costs more to get the oil out, then the price of oil will go up to match the higher costs of obtaining it. They just have to wait until the cheap oil is mostly used up so they don’t have to compete against it. There is also the possibility that ever evolving technologies will provide improved ways to get the oil cheaper.

 

[StAnastasia]

This is a respectable point. All oil is not the same. They will make a profit though. If it costs more to get the oil out, then the price of oil will go up to match the higher costs of obtaining it. They just have to wait until the cheap oil is mostly used up so they don’t have to compete against it. There is also the possibility that ever evolving technologies will provide improved ways to get the oil cheaper.

In any case, fossil fuels are finite, and once they are gone, they are gone forever, or at least for another 100 million years, if you can wait that long. The point is that we will have used up most of our one-time bonanza of fossil fuels in a few centuries. If humanity is to last as long in the future as it has in its 200,000 year past, we will need to find non-fossil sources of energy sufficient to sustain a population that grew thanks to cheap and abundant gas and oil and coal. That or nature will take care of trimming the excess off to a sustainable 1-2 billion.

 

[StAnastasia]

I’m also waiting to your response about how the smart bet is teaching NFP as a long term solution and whether you support that. It would seem from your other conclusions this would be the logical step to take.

Yes, education about issues in population, sustainability, and resource economics is the key to solving this conundrum peacefully and without excessive loss of human life.

 

[Nate13]

Yes, education about issues in population, sustainability, and resource economics is the key to solving this conundrum peacefully and without excessive loss of human life.

And…in a way to solve those problems that does not require a mass distribution process and doesn’t require products that need petroleum to be made. It would seem to me that one of the most important things that needs to be done to help avert a crisis as you played out would be to make sure people know how to use NFP when they no longer had access to contraceptives. Otherwise your going to have millions of babies being born 9 months after the crisis hits and a long time after depending on how long it takes to get a system in place on alternative energy that allows for contraceptives to be distributed nation-wide at regular intervals. Depending on how bad it gets, NFP could be the savior of the U.S

 

[yosupman]

population is not the problem in our world. The unequal distribution of resources, education, oppression, immorality, paganism are the reason we have a problem in areas with so called “overpopulation”.

In most of the industrial world we have under population.