Overpopulation thread: how many planets does your lifestyle require?

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How much fertilizer can you get without fossil fuels, what happens when those run out and we can’t make any out of fossil fuels? That article doesn’t address the issue of what happens when fossil fuels run out. I only quoted it for the location of the arable land in the world…It realy doesn’t talk about sustainable methods that can keep us all fed without fossil fuels, it just talks about ramping up the existing methods to feed us in 2015/2030.
flyingfish, the proposal has been made that when finite oil and gas reserves begin to run low, we’ll just convert to animal manure like they used in 1850. However, that would entail taking land out of cultivation or habitation to convert it to pastureland, and it would also necessitate finding a non-petrochemical fertilizer source for growing the animal feed crops.

Two potential approaches could be
(1) increase electrical generation through nuclear power, which could then be used to synthesize liquid fuels and fertilizers;

(2) Decrease the planetary load of human population (through NFP and attrition) to a sustainable level or 2-3 billion.

StAnastasia
 
flyingfish, the proposal has been made that when finite oil and gas reserves begin to run low, we’ll just convert to animal manure like they used in 1850. However, that would entail taking land out of cultivation or habitation to convert it to pastureland, and it would also necessitate finding a non-petrochemical fertilizer source for growing the animal feed crops.

Two potential approaches could be
(1) increase electrical generation through nuclear power, which could then be used to synthesize liquid fuels and fertilizers;

(2) Decrease the planetary load of human population (through NFP and attrition) to a sustainable level or 2-3 billion.

StAnastasia
Inconveniently, they keep discovering new and larger oil fields.
 
online.wsj.com/article/SB125189057895179241.html

“BP PLC announced a major new oil find in the Gulf of Mexico, the latest in a string of discoveries there that cements the offshore waters of the southern U.S. as one of the oil world’s most promising exploration regions.”

"As new technologies have enabled exploration in the deepest recesses of the Gulf, nearly a dozen discoveries, including BP’s Tiber, have been made beneath nearly two miles of water.’

““If you are looking for another opportunity of that scale that is oil and that is open to [Western oil companies], the Santos Basin of Brazil is the only other one in the world,” said Andrew Latham, a vice president of global exploration services for consultant Wood Mackenzie.”

“**Other recent finds **in Uganda, Kurdistan and off the coast of Ghana are estimated to be several billion barrels of oil, while the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil contain “tens of billions of barrels,” he said.”

Seriously, do a little research. That was low-hanging fruit from a quick “new oil discoveries” search query in Google. Look deeper and I’m sure you’ll find more.

Yes, it’s expensive to extract, and yes, current technologies can only extract so much, but prices still make it quite economically feasible and rewarding, and technology has consistently progressed to allow greater degrees of oil recovery.

Oh, and then there’s this possibility:
wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59991
“Discovery backs theory oil not ‘fossil fuel’
New evidence supports premise that Earth produces endless supply”

The point is that oil keeps being discovered, on land and at sea. As a percentage of surface area, we’ve hardly even begun to look for oil. Of course, we’d have looked for and tapped much more in the U.S. if it weren’t for government regulations–and that’s where you get a major complicating factor in the whole idea of “Peak Oil.” Peak Oil is an attempt to extrapolate a known phenomenon within a single oil reserve that extraction efficiency declines after a certain point. The problem is that that concept can’t just be extracted to a world oil supply, because it cannot factor in the addition of new production facilities or the myriad pressures of supply and demand, a huge part of which is dictated by politics–stability/war, treaties, taxes, regulations, and bans.

And yes, as you pointed out earlier, StA, fertilizers and fuels can be synthesized with other sources of energy, not requiring petroleum or natural gas. The cheapest other sources is coal (even clean coal), of which I hope you agree that we easily have many centuries’ supply. But we’ll have transitioned away from that long before existing capital investments in natural gas and oil extraction fail to produce. Instead, we’ll have renewables such as wind, solar, tidal, and geothermal, which last is my personal favorite:
A 2006 report by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), that included the potential of enhanced geothermal systems, estimated that investing 1 billion US dollars in research and development over 15 years would permit the development of 100 GW of generating capacity by 2050 in the United States alone.[20] **The MIT report estimated that over 200 zetajoules (ZJ) would be extractable, with the potential to increase this to over 2,000 ZJ with technology improvements - sufficient to provide all the world’s present energy needs for several millennia.**20]
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_energy

I’d call that pretty abundant, easily abundant enough to synthesize some fuel and fertilizer.

I will agree that there will be supply fluctuations over the next century, as there are in all transitions of infrastructure and technology, with price of energy potentially rising to a higher proportion of expenses, but so what? Such fluctuations happen all the time; change is a part of nature, human and otherwise.
 
“BP PLC announced a major new oil find in the Gulf of Mexico, the latest in a string of discoveries there that cements the offshore waters of the southern U.S. as one of the oil world’s most promising exploration regions.”.
The three-billion barrel find would supply the world for a month or two. And after that?
 
The three-billion barrel find would supply the world for a month or two. And after that?
You’re such a weasel. You question whether any discoveries are made at all, and then when you are shown conclusively that large discoveries are made quite frequently, many times a year, you try to worm your way out of admitting that you’re wrong. You try to latch onto one little phrase and ignore the wider truth–the frequent discoveries, the vast potential left undiscovered, the advance of technology, the direction of various trends, the existence of alternatives. How dishonest of you. You’re not interested in truth, just an agenda that thrives in fear and ignorance and ignores the life-promoting values of the faith.
 
The issue of “peak oil” is kind of interesting, so I spent a couple of days surfing the net, doing research.

For example. First Case Study. The North Slope of Alaska. When oil was discovered at Prudhoe Bay, the best guess was that the oil field would yield 9.6 Billion barrels. As a result they built the Trans Alaska Pipeline to the Port of Valdez (and also the highway which is featured on the current version of the Ice Road Truckers). [The original program was produced in Canada and featured frozen rivers and frozen lakes.]

Anyway, the original projection of total cumulative production was around 9.6 Billion Barrels.

So far, the total cumulative production has been around 15 Billion Barrels.

So, in my opinion, the peak oil projections are totally invalid.

[This is one of four answers to the peak oil people.]

It’s also interesting that people who are against developing Alaska oil write that the volume going through the pipeline has diminished a lot; well, the flow has ALWAYS been projected to decline. That is normal. What is surprising is that the total volume will probably be double the original amount.

AND the only reason the volume is not higher is that the oil companies are being denied permits for continued development.

In other words, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The Federal government and the courts (entertaining lawsuits) restrict oil flow and then the opposition groups say: “hey, the flow of oil has declined”.

By all accounts, there is still a LOT of oil available in Alaska and it can be extracted without harming the environment, but the opposition groups are preventing it from taking place.

There is much more, but I’ll save it for another post.
 
You’re such a weasel. You question whether any discoveries are made at all, and then when you are shown conclusively that large discoveries are made quite frequently, many times a year, you try to worm your way out of admitting that you’re wrong. You try to latch onto one little phrase and ignore the wider truth–the frequent discoveries, the vast potential left undiscovered, the advance of technology, the direction of various trends, the existence of alternatives. How dishonest of you. You’re not interested in truth, just an agenda that thrives in fear and ignorance and ignores the life-promoting values of the faith.
Arandur, you are an ill-tempered, uncharitable character, and your ad hominem attacks on people suggest either that you are unacquainted with the virtue of Christian charity, or that you are reluctant to practice it. Nevertheless, that personal flaw doesn’t excuse you from the obligation of substantiating your argument that there are no practical constraints on human numbers. I await your provision of evidence that oil and other resources are virtually limitless, or that a population of seven billion Homo sapiens can long be sustained after we cross over the peak of oil production.

StAnastasia
 
For example. First Case Study. The North Slope of Alaska. When oil was discovered at Prudhoe Bay, the best guess was that the oil field would yield 9.6 Billion barrels. …So, in my opinion, the peak oil projections are totally invalid…By all accounts, there is still a LOT of oil available in Alaska and it can be extracted without harming the environment, but the opposition groups are preventing it from taking place.
US daily oil consumption =-19,498,000 barrels

US annual oil consumption = 7.116 billion barrels

Alaska oil reserves = 7.7 billion barrels

Alaska oil reserves = 1+ year supply for the US
 
Can you offer evidence for this claim?
You haven’t been reading honestly. I’ve provided plenty of evidence, both excerpted here and linked to. If you bothered to read any of it, you would see that many of those articles refer to others or other discoveries, as well as discussing the vast potential still unexplored.
Arandur, you are an ill-tempered, uncharitable character, and your ad hominem attacks on people suggest either that you are unacquainted with the virtue of Christian charity, or that you are reluctant to practice it.
I’ve always linked what it is in your behavior that leads me to the conclusions of your dishonesty and your agenda. Those are valid arguments, and in part such chastisement is meant to convict you and provoke you to actually read, do some research, be honest, make sensible arguments.
Nevertheless, that personal flaw doesn’t excuse you from the obligation of substantiating your argument that there are no practical constraints on human numbers. I await your provision of evidence that oil and other resources are virtually limitless, or that a population of seven billion Homo sapiens can long be sustained after we cross over the peak of oil production.
First of all, the burden of evidence is on the one that wants to drastically impose upon human freedom; counter the Church’s life-promoting, providential, human-dignifying dogmas; and lend credence to death-centered beliefs and policies in an attempt to reduce human population.

Second, I never said that there are “no practical constraints on human numbers.” I have clearly stated many times that current technologies can support larger human populations sustainably, not that current technologies can support limitless populations. I have also stated with confidence in well-established trends, history, human ingenuity, and Divine Providence that most “constraints” as you call them on human population can be overcome over time, allowing mankind to responsibly expand beyond what current technologies, even if optimally utilized, can support.

Third, I have not said that oil and other resources are strictly limitless, but that the current known availability of their supply is generally quite sufficient to provide for us until we can switch over predominately to alternatives. And more reserves will be discovered. I have provided plenty of evidence for all of these from reputable sources.

Fourth, I’m not the only one here who has pointed out your unreasoned acceptance of the peak oil bogeyman and how this phantom is not what you think it is. Fundamentally, peak oil describes a price problem, not a problem of the available quantity of oil. It is caused in large part by governments, not by economics. It is a principle improperly extrapolated from a single-field oil depletion phenomenon to a world supply across multiple reserves and advancing technologies and reserve exploration–it is taken out of context far beyond the scope of its original observance. It also ignores basic economics (which I suggest you become better acquainted with), whereby we know that as prices increase, investment to generate more supply increases, including generation through alternatives. There is a demand reduction as well, mostly accomplished through efficiency and turning to alternatives.
US daily oil consumption =-19,498,000 barrels
US annual oil consumption = 7.116 billion barrels
Alaska oil reserves = 7.7 billion barrels
Alaska oil reserves = 1+ year supply for the US
If Alaskan oil reserves were all we had to fall back on, yes, we’d have a problem. But we’ve got Gulf reserves, offshore Pacific reserves, oil sands in Canada, oil shale in the West, and then there are tons of reserves off of Cuba, in Brazil and South and Central America, in Africa, in the Arctic Circle, in Siberia and Russia, and likely more elsewhere.

I believe current estimates of oil shale alone are in the multiple TRillions of barrels, amounting to hundreds of years of current U.S. consumption, many, many decades of trend-projected world consumption.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale
“Estimates of global deposits range from 2.8 trillion to 3.3 trillion barrels (450 × 109 to 520 × 109 m3) of recoverable oil.[2][3][4][5]”

That alone, just as with the FAO food links I provided, conclusively demonstrates that quantity of these resources is not a problem. Distribution, regional supply, and price all fluctuate and can be sources of hardship, but this is true of any resource in any time or place; such flux is normal and to be expected. I’ve said that a couple times before, too.
 
First of all, the burden of evidence is on the one that wants to drastically impose upon human freedom; counter the Church’s life-promoting, providential, human-dignifying dogmas; and lend credence to death-centered beliefs and policies in an attempt to reduce human population…
If you learn something about resource economics, you will discover why the human species – like salmon and lizards and elephants and every other species – will at some reach the equilibrium of zero population growth, with deaths equaling births. A population cannot indefinitely exceed the carrying capacity of the environment. The population will eventually crash back to a level that can be sustained by the food supply.

You also need to read posts more carefully; I never said anything about imposing on human freedom.

StAnastasia
 
5.2 Earths

Time to start expanding and colonizing space! I humbly propose that I take on the mantle of the Emperor of the Holy Martian Empire. 👍
 
If you learn something about resource economics, you will discover why the human species – like salmon and lizards and elephants and every other species – will at some reach the equilibrium of zero population growth, with deaths equaling births. A population cannot indefinitely exceed the carrying capacity of the environment. The population will eventually crash back to a level that can be sustained by the food supply.

You also need to read posts more carefully; I never said anything about imposing on human freedom.

StAnastasia
Anybody who uses fancy talk like “resource economics” and doesn’t discuss the works of Julian Simon is condemned to the fate of Paul Ehrlich in “the bet”.
 
Anybody who uses fancy talk like “resource economics” and doesn’t discuss the works of Julian Simon is condemned to the fate of Paul Ehrlich in “the bet”.
Clearly we’ll have to agree to disagree.
 
There are easier ways to address overpopulation: abortion, euthanasia, and artificial birth control.

Then the ‘planet’ will be safe from the evil influence of man.
 
US daily oil consumption =-19,498,000 barrels

US annual oil consumption = 7.116 billion barrels

Alaska oil reserves = 7.7 billion barrels

Alaska oil reserves = 1+ year supply for the US
Just only with respect to Case Study #1: Alaska oil.

You state here that Alaska Reserves are 7.7 billion barrels. I demonstrated that 7.7 billion barrels is a false estimate, because Alaska has already shipped 15 billion barrels. With much more to come.

And I stated that these ideas about running out of oil, such as Alaskan oil, are false, because the only reason they aren’t shipping more oil is that the Federal government won’t issue the permits and the lawsuits from nuisance environmental groups are tying everyone up in legal knots. It’s not that the oil isn’t there; it IS THERE. But by not allowing development and shipments to take place, the left is able to say: “see, we told you there isn’t any more oil. Alaska has run out of oil.”

But that is utterly false.
 
If you learn something about resource economics, you will discover why the human species – like salmon and lizards and elephants and every other species – will at some reach the equilibrium of zero population growth, with deaths equaling births. A population cannot indefinitely exceed the carrying capacity of the environment. The population will eventually crash back to a level that can be sustained by the food supply.
You seem to have missed that human carrying capacity is a changing and changeable thing, and with current sustainable technologies if widely utilized, it is larger than the current human population.
You also need to read posts more carefully; I never said anything about imposing on human freedom.
You seem to have missed the discussion on this board earlier about how all talk of population control leads inevitably to impositions on human freedom. However “benevolent” the methods you advocate personally for population control, they will be subsumed by the various groups supporting more overt and sinister methods of it. And both are contrary to the Church’s teachings on human life and divine providence.
Clearly we’ll have to agree to disagree.
I saw no argument offered there to oppose mpi’s reference to the bet Simon won to prove his point.
 
You seem to have missed that human carrying capacity is a changing and changeable thing, and with current sustainable technologies if widely utilized, it is larger than the current human population…You seem to have missed the discussion on this board earlier about how all talk of population control leads inevitably to impositions on human freedom. However “benevolent” the methods you advocate personally for population control, they will be subsumed by the various groups supporting more overt and sinister methods of it. .
(1) There is no evidence that the long-term carrying capacity of the planet is much larger than what it was before the discovery and application of fossil fuels. Nuclear would help somewhat, but there is a Hubbert’s peak for uranium as well, probably a century or so out. Fusion is a vague hope. Renewables depend upon liquid fossil fuels for manufacturing, installing, and maintaining their infrastructure.

(2) Population reduction need not lead to impositions on human freedom. I have two children, and most of the families in our parish are two-child families. No one in my experience was “imposed upon” to limit their families to two.
 
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