Peak oil, here?

[Jason_Weishaupt]

Occording to some experts peak oil was not suppose to hit the market until 2020. This was in 1975. Later they revised it to 2010 I think last year. Now they are saying peak oil is here in 2005!

Peak oil is the point at which the demand for oil keeps growing but they can’t pump it out of the ground fast enough to keep up.

Jason Weishaupt

 

[manualman]

Methinks the whole thing rests on a shaky assumption about the production curve being a VERY narrow, sharp peak.

In reality, it will be a problem soon. But I doubt the doomsday predictions.

 

[geezerbob]

I just read a newspaper article - sorry, no references, it was on the table in the restaurant where I ate lunch - that stated that a 20% increase in production capacity was already in the works and was expected to start coming on line by 2010. The same article indicated that there are enough known oil reserves to last well past 2050, even factoring in the increased demand from China and India.

I just went to the newpaper’s web site but could not locate the article, perhaps because it was syndicated.

 

[Bobby_Jim]

It’s not a question of how much oil we have left, as there is quite a lot. The question is how difficult is it to get to and use.

There is an immense amount of oil-like fossil fuel in the form of “tar sands” in Canada. The amount rivals the total amount that was ever present in the Saudia Arabia/Persian Gulf region. It’s just messier and harder to deal with (read more expensive to process). E.g. it doesn’t flow, so you have to haul it out in massive trucks, rather than just pump it out of the ground and ship it in a pipeline.

There’s also a similar amount of oil left in “spent” wells. We can get to it; it just requires some fancy techniques (read more expensive to extract).

Counting these types of reserves, petroleum will last a bit longer, maybe until 2100 or so. Prices will just keep getting higher though, as the percentage coming from these more difficult sources increases.

Maybe by then they’ll have nuclear fusion working. It’s only about 20 years away, or so they said back in 1960…

 

[TNT]

Hi interest-rate Recessions cure all high prices…oil not excepted.

In the meantime, oil pricing on its own, will eventually kill the economy, which is its own cure for hi oil prices.

In 1985 I saw Texas oil at the well go from 31.00 to 10.00/bbl in 4 months. Sept-Jan 86 It nearly wiped Houston off the map. Property was going for 25cts on the dollar.

 

[Crow]

This is an enormeously complex issue which will impact everyone in the coming years, especially those of the next generation to hit their 30’s in the next 10 years or so. There are so many factors to consider it is impossible for anyone to truly predict with any form of precision what the impact will be in the future.

a few facts:

1. The economy is primarily driven by energy. Without ‘cheap’ energy, the economy just got harder - regardless of inflation.
2. The best source of energy for your buck is oil
3. The US peaked in oil production in the 70s.
4. ‘peak oil’ is a repeadetly proven phenomena.

The overall effect of ‘peakoil’ will be people gradually getting poorer and poorer, something that is already being felt from demand outstripping supply of oil in 2005. This is the main reason wy the oil prices are spiking right now, though not directly due to the physical phenom of peak oil. Peak oil however, will hit, and will highten the economic pinch for everyone.

Imagine paying 10$ per gallon for gas? This can conceivable happen within the next 5 years, and then everything gets more difficult. A recession, maybe a depression? Who knows…

I do not subscribe to ‘doomsdayers’ saying there will be a dieoff and the likes. but I do believe that life will be much harder within the next 30 years, than it has been in the last 30 years.