Petroleum and the future of civilization

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Ya know, … I posted some legitimate questions … about “education” to reduce population, about why would the OPEC countries buy 100 jumbo and super jumbo airliners if they’re about to run out of oil, and how many refineries does Saudi Arabia have ('cause you can’t burn crude oil in airplanes). And all I got from you all was personal insults and invective.

All you had to do was to answer and / or discuss those three issues in some detail. But you chose the direction of attempting to intimidate and ridicule.

That doesn’t speak well of your interest in and your ability to persuade.

Furthermore, there is a body of discussion that suggests that OPEC is DELIBERATELY withholding petroleum off the market to drive up the price and to punish the West as part of the 1500-year-old on-going jihad.

The notion of running out of oil is part of their fear campaign.

I recommend everyone read Robert Zubrin’s book, “Energy Victory” which advocates developing METHANOL (not ethanol) and using a system of “flex fuel” to break the Saudi campaign against the Christian West.

amazon.com/Energy-Victory-Winning-Terror-Breaking/dp/1591025915/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1202329519&sr=8-1

Zubrin maintains that people like Matt Simmons(2) are in on the OPEC plan to stand down on world exploration/discovery so they can artificially suppress the supply, thus artificially driving up the demand. On page 77 Zubrin says:

“At jacked-up prices of about $75 per barrel (the assumed price when Zubrin wrote the book), the world’s oil producers pulled in about $2 trillion during 2006, instead of the $500 billion or so they would have obtained in a free market. How much of the extra $1.5 trillion do you suppose they will put into exploration? No one knows for sure, but the answer is probably less than 2 percent.”

In contrast, Simmons says on page 242 of TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT:

“Aramaco is also indicating that it will step up its exploration efforts for 2005 and 2006. As reported by Kevin Morrison in a story titled “Saudi to Increase Oil Capacity” (Financial Times, February 11, 2005), Saudi Aramaco “plans to double the number of drilling rigs it operates in order to explore and develop new oil and gas fields.” Morrison quotes a “Saudi Aramaco official” as saying, “Saudi Aramaco’s target is to have 70-plus drilling rigs working by the end of 2005.” The increase is said to signal a “shift in strategy for Saudi Aramaco” toward EXPANDING PRODUCTION CAPACITY FROM SIMPLY MAINTAINING IT. Morrison also reports statements by an “oil executive who works in the region” to the effect that Saudi Aramaco has increased its exploration and development budget to $2.7 billion for 2005 from $2.3 billion in 2004, an increase of 17 percent.”

Given the above nebulous statements made by several parties and the PUNY numbers for exploration, $2.7 billion, Zubrin may be correct:

"If our goal were increased oil exploration, we would do much better to set up a program, funded at, say, $30 billion per year . . . "

Spending only $2.7 billion per year out of gross revenues in excess of $1 trillion per year is evidence that “the OPEC-inflated oil price is simply a swindle,” as Zubrin suggests.

Zubrin says that in 1999 the Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, said that his country’s “all inclusive” cost to produce each barrel of oil was $1.50 and the cost for discovering each new barrel amounted to an additional 10 cents per barrel. So, given the world price of oil today is about $88 per barrel, this is a profit of over $85 per barrel. If OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, IS selling 72 million barrels of oil per day, their net profit would be $6.1 billion per day or the sum of $2.2 trillion per year, as of 2008. Were OPEC to place oil on the market under the “free market system,” they would generate a little more than $1.3 billion per day or about $475 billion per year.

So I have to agree with Zubrin, there IS powerful incentive for OPEC to conspire to set prices by artificially limiting demand (i.e., under spending on exploration). The question is: what would be the incentive for Matt Simmons to misrepresent the situation as described above? Wouldn’t he as an investment banker make more money getting in on the ground floor of developing new energy companies, such as a universal system of flex-fuel cars based on ethanol and methanol?(3)

(1) Aramaco is Saudi Arabia’s main oil company.

(2) Simmons is a veteran oil industry analyst, investment banker and CFR member. He is also the CEO of Simmons & Company, a Houston-based investment bank that specializes in the energy industry.

(3) Is Saudi Arabia peaking or is it using people like Simmons to mislead the world in order sell oil at vast premiums? We all deserve an answer to this question because we pay for the oil and we are being asked to support Zubrin’s strategy of flex-fuel cars. I am not interested in supporting or vilifying any system just because that system is based on someone’s ideological view of Earth’s energy problem.

[Some of this post was derived from a post on Amazon.]
 
I’m worried the puplic will not wake up to this until there’s a stimulas such as gas shortages here in the first world to get them to take notice.
Doug, that’s precisely the problem. Look how even after the wakeup call about oil prices last year, Hummers are still selling! We will muddle along, paying more and more for petrol until it really starts to hurt, but then people will be locked in. My wife has a colleague who has a two-hour car commute each way every day; she has no idea how it is even cost effective for him to do that. The problem is, most of their neighbors are in a similar pickle, so their house value has fallen, and they will lose their shirts if they sell and move to a smaller house closer to work. But light rail gets shot down each election. And now ethanol is being shown to be a debacle both economically and ecologically.

Petrus

PS – I don’t know why Al started the rumor that I support abortion, euthanasia, and infanticide, but it’s a complete lie.
 
For the record, you still have not answered the question: How will education reduce the population.

And do it without abortion, birth control and euthanasia.

And do it in a very short period of time (before the oil runs out).
Doug, that’s precisely the problem. Look how even after the wakeup call about oil prices last year, Hummers are still selling! We will muddle along, paying more and more for petrol until it really starts to hurt, but then people will be locked in. My wife has a colleague who has a two-hour car commute each way every day; she has no idea how it is even cost effective for him to do that. The problem is, most of their neighbors are in a similar pickle, so their house value has fallen, and they will lose their shirts if they sell and move to a smaller house closer to work. But light rail gets shot down each election. And now ethanol is being shown to be a debacle both economically and ecologically.

Petrus

PS – I don’t know why Al started the rumor that I support abortion, euthanasia, and infanticide, but it’s a complete lie.
 
Doug, that’s precisely the problem. Look how even after the wakeup call about oil prices last year, Hummers are still selling! We will muddle along, paying more and more for petrol until it really starts to hurt, but then people will be locked in. My wife has a colleague who has a two-hour car commute each way every day; she has no idea how it is even cost effective for him to do that. The problem is, most of their neighbors are in a similar pickle, so their house value has fallen, and they will lose their shirts if they sell and move to a smaller house closer to work. But light rail gets shot down each election. And now ethanol is being shown to be a debacle both economically and ecologically.

Petrus

PS – I don’t know why Al started the rumor that I support abortion, euthanasia, and infanticide, but it’s a complete lie.
That’s what I’m sensing too. The thing about rail and mass transit is that the mass per area must first be there or it isn’t effencient. IOW the population density must first be there to make it work. The Wall Street Journal and CNN have articles about homeowners walking away from their moragage contracts. Once…I don’t believe it’s a matter of if anymore…but once we get back to 70’s gas rationing what’s going to happen to the suburbs? I think those who can will telecommute (companies should be doing that now) others will ditch their bigger cars for something more fuel efficient like the Prius or motorcycles. People will do what they have to maintain their homelife up to a point. I have this image in my mind where some communities up North looking like Pripyat today, the city of 50,000 that was abandoned 20 years ago after the Chernobyl accident. Radiation levels are now safe enough to move back but the place has become so deteriated it’d take a major capitol investment to rebuild the place. A lot of communities in Northern US and Candada depend on heating oil. Right now, because the of price, people are actually stealing heating oil from homeowner’s tanks.

I like to listen to Ed Wallace, he my farvoite cornucopia. Seems to be a nice guy. Ed does a talk radio program giving advice on autos. Ed always talks about the peak oil debate but he’s in the CERA camp. But just these past weekend he was referring to an energy analyst he’s respect since the 70’s (wish I could remember the name) who is now saying gas price need to get to $10-$15 per gallon to put an end to Americans’ indiscriminate driving habbits. Ed thinks we’ll be hearing more over the next year about this.

Al, said the same thing about me too . He doesn’t seem to understand that educating the someone about the effects that oil depletion will have on world food supply will cause more couples to choose smaller families.
 
For the record, you still have not answered the question: How will education reduce the population.

And do it without abortion, birth control and euthanasia.

And do it in a very short period of time (before the oil runs out).

Yeah… I repeated that part.

Also, where will the MidEast OPEC countries get the jet fuel for the 130 or so Super Jumbo jets that will be delivered in the next few years?

And how many refineries are there in the MidEast OPEC countries?

Let me add one question: how many production wells does Saudi Arabia have?

Instead of going around and around about the inevitability of petroleum running out in the very near future, and how we must all have to move to strip developments along rail road lines … please just answer the four questions I asked.

Just sit down and type out the specific answers to the specific questions. Just those four questions.

Thanks.
 
But just these past weekend he was referring to an energy analyst he’s respect since the 70’s (wish I could remember the name) who is now saying gas price need to get to $10-$15 per gallon to put an end to Americans’ indiscriminate driving habbits. Ed thinks we’ll be hearing more over the next year about this.
Al, said the same thing about me too . He doesn’t seem to understand that educating the someone about the effects that oil depletion will have on world food supply will cause more couples to choose smaller families.
Doug50, I suspect the US economy will be ravaged well before the $10-$15 per gallon range is reached. Ski resorts at Lake Tahoe depend overwhelmingly on skiers driving long distances on a regular basis. What will happen to these resorts when people have to choose between traveling to work and traveling for leisure? When the ski traffic tanks, what profitability will there be in maintaining resorts that employ thousands of people? What will happen to big-business sports when commute costs eat into people’s entertainment budgets? You are right that people are reluctant to change their driving habits, but I don’t know many families who can afford to wait until $10/gallon to do so. I move in humbler circles.

I agree that large swaths of the Upper Midwest may become very difficult to inhabit when heating oil becomes too pricey, as it is already for families in New England who can’t do it without government subsidization (I worry about my Michigan and Minnesota relatives.) We will likely in our lifetime see environmentally-caused internal migrations within this country, although we don’t really have much available land left for homesteading by people who’ve had to abandon and walk away from their equity.

Petrus
 
For the record, you still have not answered the question: How will education reduce the population.
And do it without abortion, birth control and euthanasia. And do it in a very short period of time (before the oil runs out). Also, where will the MidEast OPEC countries get the jet fuel for the 130 or so Super Jumbo jets that will be delivered in the next few years? And how many refineries are there in the MidEast OPEC countries? Let me add one question: how many production wells does Saudi Arabia have?.
(1) Just like education for anything else – inform people about the consequences of unlimited human population growth and their choices in the matter. The choice will be up to them of course – self-control now or famine, mass migrations and resource wars later.

(2) Good question. I have no idea what they’re thinking. Undoubtedly they will use their own oil before exporting it, so count on a decrease in OPEC supply.

(3) Google it – you can probably find the answer.

(4) Google it – you can probably find the answer.
 
“Gee, I don’t know” is not a response.

Self-control … i.e., celibacy somehow doesn’t seem to be a response. And forcing people to discover abortion, birth control and euthanasia for themselves doesn’t appear to be very appealing.

So I asked you for some responsive answers. And look at what I got.

So … essentially non-responsive.
(1) Just like education for anything else – inform people about the consequences of unlimited human population growth and their choices in the matter. The choice will be up to them of course – self-control now or famine, mass migrations and resource wars later.

(2) Good question. I have no idea what they’re thinking. Undoubtedly they will use their own oil before exporting it, so count on a decrease in OPEC supply.

(3) Google it – you can probably find the answer.

(4) Google it – you can probably find the answer.
 
“Gee, I don’t know” is not a response.
Show me where I said “Gee, I don’t know.”

And since you pose wild questions and demand answers, you tell me how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. I don’t want “Gee I don’t know” as an answer!
 
Show me where I said “Gee, I don’t know.”

And since you pose wild questions and demand answers, you tell me how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. I don’t want “Gee I don’t know” as an answer!
We were discussing oil.

And what are people’s alternatives.

NOT a question attributing physical characteristics to beings that are pure spirits.

However, after posting some very provocative statements about the future of civilization … and saying that folks are on their own after being educated, of course … although I’m not sure what options they will be educated about …

… and then “I have no idea” …

and then … look it up yourself …

When we were having a civilized discussion about the oil industry … I know something about aviation, but you and Doug have been providing expertise on the oil industry … so I would expect that you would have answers on the oil industry … more than I could come up with.

So, yes, “Gee, I don’t know” sort of is appropriate as a paraphrased summary.

Otherwise how much credibility is there in the other comments, to wit, that we are coming to the end of petroleum and the end of civilization?
 
I gave up on Al. He’ll demand all kinds of things from someone else but is too closed to open another’s links to data and facts. I spent more time on him than I should have.

And no matter how much you, me, or anyone could tell him that if some kind of mitigation isn’t put forth (for us it’s education which I think is immoral not to do) then a lot of people are going to starve.
 
I agree that large swaths of the Upper Midwest may become very difficult to inhabit when heating oil becomes too pricey, as it is already for families in New England who can’t do it without government subsidization (I worry about my Michigan and Minnesota relatives.)
Don’t worry about us, plenty of coal, and if neceesary, we can always go back to steam locomotives to bring it here. That’s how things worked for much of the 20th century.
We will likely in our lifetime see environmentally-caused internal migrations within this country, although we don’t really have much available land left for homesteading by people who’ve had to abandon and walk away from their equity.
And it would be back to places like the Midwest. It’s a LOT easier to bring heat to Michigan than to bring more water to California.
 
Don’t worry about us, plenty of coal, and if neceesary, we can always go back to steam locomotives to bring it here. That’s how things worked for much of the 20th century.

And it would be back to places like the Midwest. It’s a LOT easier to bring heat to Michigan than to bring more water to California.
The Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crises (why US Coal reserves are less than 100 years)
npg.org/specialreports/bartlett_index.htm
guba.com/watch/3000053112
webpotential.com/ambiente/exponential_growth.htm
Human population, resource use, and the waste that accompany them are growing exponentially. While many types of resource use are growing at over 5% per year, the human population is growing at about 1.6% (Miller 9). 1.6% does not seem too like an unacceptable rate of growth to many. In economic terms 1.6% growth is downright horrendous. The Japanese declare their economy is in recession if it grows less than 3% per year.

Although 1.6% does not seem like much to some of the kings and economists of the world, applied to human population it can yield huge numbers. While it took 2 million years for us to reach a population of 1 billion, we will add another billion to the earth’s population in just the next 11 years (Miller 9). If we calculate 1.6% growth out to 600 years we find that there would be one person for each square meter of the dry land surface of earth, and in 1800 years the mass of humans would exceed the mass of the earth (Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis). Clearly human population growth will stop. But it’s not just our population that is growing, it’s also our use of natural resources.

Most types of resource use are growing faster than population. Although many associate growth in resource use with population growth, growth in resource use can also be independent of population growth. Resource use can grow even without population growth, although the reverse is hard to imagine.** An example of what exponential growth means in resources can be seen with US coal reserves.** => Coal is the US’s most abundant fossil fuel. In 1991 the US Department of Energy reported that at current rate of use US coal reserves could last almost 500 years. But the caveat here is current rate of use. Between 1971 and 1991 the use of coal grew 2.86%. With this rate of growth US coal could last about 94 years if we could use it all, but more likely 72 years of coal would be recoverable (Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis).

Lack of understanding of how long coal could last comes from people’s lack of knowledge of exponential growth. In 1978, Time Magazine reported that there is “enough coal to meet the country’s energy needs for centuries, no matter how much energy consumption may grow” (Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis). This is clearly untrue. If we look just at the amount of electrical energy the country uses and its historical growth over the last 40 years, we see that coal could meet that need for just 36 years. Remember, coal is our most abundant fossil fuel. This utter lack of understanding of the results of exponential growth isn’t limited to Time – it’s pervasive in our government, media, and general public.

One reason for this is that exponential growth moves so fast. It seems we should not worry with 500 years of coal left, but we need to know how fast use will grow. Exponential growth is deceptive. The ramifications of exponential growth can be better understood if you understand doubling time.

The amount of time it takes for the amount of something that is growing exponentially to double can be approximated by dividing 70 by the rate of growth. So the human population doubles at 70/1.6 which equals about every 43 years. Doubling time is important because it’s easier to conceptualize than a percentage. Also in exponential growth the growing item during any doubling time is greater than the entire amount that came before. For example the last square of the chessboard will contain more wheat than all the other squares combined. Hence in the next 25 years, the doubling time of coal use, if we increase the use of coal by our current rate of 2.86% we will use more coal than we have used in the history of humankind. This is deceptive because when we have reserves of a resource that are greater than all of that resource previously used, people tend to think the resource will last a great while longer. For example, if a nonrenewable resource has been used for centuries, and almost half of it remains, people will generally believe they have a lot of time before they have to adjust; however, as we have seen, they may not have enough for the last doubling time which will require more than has ever been used before. What may seem like huge amounts of resources can be decimated in short periods of time when we apply linear growth to a question when the thing in question grows exponentially.

Some people, however, argue that growth can continue because of humanity’s incredible propensity for change, technological innovation, and our historical ability to find new resources and processes. Chief among these proponents of growth is economist Julian L. Simon. Simon argues, “Raw materials have been getting less scarce instead of more scarce throughout history, defying the common sense notion that if one begins with an inventory of a resource and use some up, there will be less left. This is despite, and indirectly because of, increasing population” (Miller 24-25). Simon is right that we have historically found new ways to manipulate our environment and hence have increased the diversity of raw materials we have available. But Simon doesn’t seem to recognize the power of exponential growth, and that until the industrial revolution the earth’s population wasn’t growing exponentially.
 
And since you pose wild questions and demand answers, you tell me how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. I don’t want “Gee I don’t know” as an answer!
One. Easy. Go read Aquinas.

Anyway, the myth that education solves everything is probably a worse idea than Communism in terms of the harm it’s done. Even good education won’t solve anything if people don’t choose the right course; and good educations are essentially nonexistent.

As to overpopulation, it’s largely an alarmist myth made up by an Anglican clergyman with no knowledge of agriculture, and an American entomologist with no knowledge of demography. It caught on because it was an excuse to oppress Africans and South Americans.

But I do think it’s beneath us to use dead animals for fuel, when we could be using lithium batteries.

Tesla Motors, man.
Elektricitet je za mene sve.
–Nikola Tesla
 
One. Easy. Go read Aquinas.

Anyway, the myth that education solves everything is probably a worse idea than Communism in terms of the harm it’s done. Even good education won’t solve anything if people don’t choose the right course; and good educations are essentially nonexistent.

As to overpopulation, it’s largely an alarmist myth made up by an Anglican clergyman with no knowledge of agriculture, and an American entomologist with no knowledge of demography. It caught on because it was an excuse to oppress Africans and South Americans.

But I do think it’s beneath us to use dead animals for fuel, when we could be using lithium batteries.

Tesla Motors, man.
Malthus’ calculation was right given he was only looking a England and given the perameters he used. What he didn’t anticipate was British colonial expansion that made it possible to bring goods in from abroad.
 
Otherwise how much credibility is there in the other comments, to wit, that we are coming to the end of petroleum and the end of civilization?
Doug and Dee Dee who are both inside the industry have made that amply clear, and for weeks you have refused to educate yourself through the links and articles they post. They are the ones with credibility in this discussion.
 
Doug,

The Dept of the Interior produced a survey of know coal deposits

The US has 957 billion tons of known deposits.

uk.reuters.com/article/idUKN0525299720070905

The current rate of consumption is 1.1 billion tons per year.

If your doubling calculations are correct, we will be using 2.2 billion tons anually in 43 years, and 4.4 billions ton annually in 83 years.

Correct?

So that totals out to about 280 billlion tons in the next 83 years (depending on how you calculate the rise) - about a quarter of our total known supply

So I would have to agree with the Dept of the Interior when it says we have about 200 years of coal supply.
 
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