Petroleum and the future of civilization

[Neil_Anthony]

what new energy technologies, Neil? There are none that can handle the volumes needed. Probably the best, certainly one of the best, lectures I’ve seen explaining the problem is by Prof Rick Smalley. Here it is, take the time to watch it. I’ve had a Phd geophysisits tell me it was an eye opener for him.

the first link is the lecture and the second link (pdf) is to the power point that Prof Smalley is referring to.

video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4626573768558163231
smalley.rice.edu/emplibrary/columbia20030923.pdf

americanenergyindependence.com/energychallenge.html

How about electric vehicles, with electricity generated by nuclear reactors? And better mass transit. Skip the whole “individual vehicle and live out in the suburbs” idea. This is for countries that aren’t industrialized yet, or are just getting started on it.

Electric mopeds.

 

[Al_Masetti]

Interesting article by Robert Zubrin on flex fuel vehicles.

thenewatlantis.com/archive/18/zubrin.htm

By allowing all new cars to burn a gasoline / alcohol mix and focusing on METHANOL ] , a new market would be created leading to economies of scale for production of methanol which is cheaper, faster, and easier to make than ethanol.

Anyway, read Zubrin’s article.

His suggestions could be implemented in six months and cut the dependency on petroleum, the price of which is controlled by a half-dozen monopolists at OPEC.

We don’t need radical “perfect” solutions and we don’t need to cut the world’s population and we don’t need to force people to live a subsistence existence.

 

[Doug50]

Al, you just don’t understand the volumes and logistics of this coming problem.

can you make biodiesel from discarded resturant oils? yes and a number of people are doing just that. But could you generated the volumes necessary to run the country’s economy? Heck no. Not even close to being a chance. Even in the Mad Max movies there were people refining oil into gasoline.

can we make bio fuels from corn and sugar cane? Yes. But can it be made in the volumes necessary to supply the world market? NO. there isn’t enough ag land (or water) to make a go of it…and that’s not even considering needed land to feed people. Even now with current technologies we don’t have enough land to feed everybody.

You need to think bigger, Al. You need to think in terms of 10-20 terrawatts by 2050.

 

[Al_Masetti]

If the United States generated 80% of its electricity with nuclear power, as France does, then the demand for petroleum for power generation would be reduced.

The idea is that we don’t need to REPLACE or ELIMINATE petroleum, merely reduce the need enough to cause the market price to drop and to reduce the vulnerability of the country to fluctuations in supply.

The problem is that Saudi Arabia controls the price by controlling the volume. Saudi Arabia together with the rest of OPEC easily manipulates the supply and price.

Zubrin has proposed making cars able to use alternative fuels (what he and others call “Flex Fuel”) such that cars are not restricted to the use of gasoline.

Ethanol, whether from corn or sugar cane, is not the ideal situation. However, methanol would be a very useful form of alcohol and could provide one ONE, not THE ] very economically and politically powerful alternate form of car fuel. It has some shortcomings, but right now, without a Flex Fuel policy (to modify cars to accept methanol/gasoline mixes) we’re stuck.

With a policy in place, we woud have alternatives. And those alternatives would result in lower prices and less vulnerability.

Al, you just don’t understand the volumes and logistics of this coming problem.

can you make biodiesel from discarded resturant oils? yes and a number of people are doing just that. But could you generated the volumes necessary to run the country’s economy? Heck no. Not even close to being a chance. Even in the Mad Max movies there were people refining oil into gasoline.

can we make bio fuels from corn and sugar cane? Yes. But can it be made in the volumes necessary to supply the world market? NO. there isn’t enough ag land (or water) to make a go of it…and that’s not even considering needed land to feed people. Even now with current technologies we don’t have enough land to feed everybody.

You need to think bigger, Al. You need to think in terms of 10-20 terrawatts by 2050.

 

[Catherine_S]

Interesting article by Robert Zubrin on flex fuel vehicles.

http://www.thenewatlantis.com/archive/18/zubrin.htm

By allowing all new cars to burn a gasoline / alcohol mix and focusing on METHANOL ] , a new market would be created leading to economies of scale for production of methanol which is cheaper, faster, and easier to make than ethanol.

Anyway, read Zubrin’s article.

His suggestions could be implemented in six months and cut the dependency on petroleum, the price of which is controlled by a half-dozen monopolists at OPEC.

We don’t need radical “perfect” solutions and we don’t need to cut the world’s population and we don’t need to force people to live a subsistence existence.

.
Thank you for this article!!
In a game of chess, the struggle ends **not **with the taking of the enemy king, but with his entrapment. If we could engineer a liberation from oil, the enemy would be rendered helpless, and one way or another, the oil-for-terror game will be finished.
Call it checkmate. Call it victory.

 

[Al_Masetti]

.
Thank you for this article!!
In a game of chess, the struggle ends **not **with the taking of the enemy king, but with his entrapment. If we could engineer a liberation from oil, the enemy would be rendered helpless, and one way or another, the oil-for-terror game will be finished.
Call it checkmate. Call it victory.

Your characterization of the current geo-political push-pull as a chess game, is pretty accurate.

When I tried to buy the book on line, … well … visit Amazon and see for yourself. The book is not available.

HELLO!!!

So I found Mr. Zubrin’s email and asked if he had a box of books and he said to send him a check and he would mail me an autographed copy.

I tried a couple of booksellers and they didn’t have the book.

Chess game, indeed.

Politically incorrect book, I would guess.

 

[Doug50]

If the United States generated 80% of its electricity with nuclear power, as France does, then the demand for petroleum for power generation would be reduced.

The idea is that we don’t need to REPLACE or ELIMINATE petroleum, merely reduce the need enough to cause the market price to drop and to reduce the vulnerability of the country to fluctuations in supply.

The problem is that Saudi Arabia controls the price by controlling the volume. Saudi Arabia together with the rest of OPEC easily manipulates the supply and price.

Zubrin has proposed making cars able to use alternative fuels (what he and others call “Flex Fuel”) such that cars are not restricted to the use of gasoline.

Ethanol, whether from corn or sugar cane, is not the ideal situation. However, methanol would be a very useful form of alcohol and could provide one ONE, not THE ] very economically and politically powerful alternate form of car fuel. It has some shortcomings, but right now, without a Flex Fuel policy (to modify cars to accept methanol/gasoline mixes) we’re stuck.

With a policy in place, we woud have alternatives. And those alternatives would result in lower prices and less vulnerability.

Al,
1 not counting transportation costs, we don’t use petroleum to generate electricity. We haven’t since the 70’s. That’s one of the resaons oil prices fell in the 80’s. Only about 3% of electric generation in the US uses petroleum. The majority if from coal, natural gas, hydro, and nuclear. Nuclear is 20% (1 in 5 homes).

2 Saudi Arabia no longer controls the price of oil. They’d like to but they can’t. The Saudi’s understand that if they cut back production to raise prices they’d also generate an economic resession. The Saudis own assets that would also get hurt by such a recession. Last year, with oil prices at record highs, they sold 1 million bbl less per day.

1. Flex Fuel cars are already a reality.
2. According to Toyota’s fuels manager if 30% of all THE gasoline volumes currently demanded within the US were converted to biofuel from corn, the amount of water need is equal to that which flows over Niagra Falls every year. If you don’t believe that then here it is from the horses mouth:
   Bill Reinert, Toyota’s alternative fuel manger on ethanol
   video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2201199802681775303
   video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2558276641904882805

5 What is the supply of uranium, of coal? fraw.org.uk/mobbsey/papers/oies_article.html

and you can’t get around the exponential growth factor brought on by increasing us of any resource. We don’t have 500 years of coal. There’s less than 100 years, ~70 years, at an exponential growth of only 2.86% yearly demand growth. You can’t increase electrical generation from coal without increaing the growth rate. Build a new plant and the rate increases.

 

[Al_Masetti]

Doug,

I cannot accept your arguments as long as the United States works overtime to put accessible fuel sources off limits to development. Coal. Oil. Natural gas. Nuclear. Hydro. And to some extent, Methanol.

We know where the stuff is and how to get at it, but pressure groups have worked effectively to prevent those interested from developing it from doing so.

If we were working at full capacity to develop our energy resources AND we still fell short, then I MIGHT accept your arguments.

But the way it is, whenever someone comes up with a reasonably priced energy source, it gets shot down.

The school of thought you seem to be representing is that because of some exponential math, we need to reduce our population and to develop some Brave New World draconian social restructuring to prevent mass starvation.

Let’s develop what we know we already have in resources before we start instituting a dictatorship of technocrats.

 

[drpmjhess]

The school of thought you seem to be representing is that because of some exponential math, we need to reduce our population and to develop some Brave New World draconian social restructuring to prevent mass starvation.

I quite agree that we need to avoid technocracy. But we can reduce the human population to sustainable levels through education.

 

[Al_Masetti]

I quite agree that we need to avoid technocracy. But we can reduce the human population to sustainable levels through education.

I’m sure that education would do the job. Just like in China. Although … the population hasn’t been reduced in China, even with their one-child policy.

I guess that if education doesn’t work, then re-education will work … or might work.

 

[drpmjhess]

I’m sure that education would do the job. Just like in China. Although … the population hasn’t been reduced in China, even with their one-child policy. I guess that if education doesn’t work, then re-education will work … or might work.

It’s a sure bet that because we inhabit a finite planet, humanity will need to reach zero population growth at some point. We have to reach a consensus on what the best means is.

 

[Al_Masetti]

It’s a sure bet that because we inhabit a finite planet, humanity will need to reach zero population growth at some point. We have to reach a consensus on what the best means is.

That statement could have been made a hundred years ago or a thousand years ago, and be just as valid.

Or be invalid.

Would some folks have been willing to stop the human race a thousand years ago because they worked out the math?

Just remember that God will provide.

God made us and He provides the resources for us to survive.

He did that for the Jews as they wandered through the desert for 40 years, eating manna.

He did that when Jesus commanded the nets be lowered and they were filled to breaking.

He did that when Jesus performed the miracle of the loaves and fishes.

To be Christian, means to put our faith and trust in Him.

God will provide.

Besides we have scarcely scratched the surface of what this planet (Earth) can provide for us. AND we have the miracle of the Sun being in exactly the right distance … bombarding us with light for photosynthesis … [and photovoltaic cells] … and yet we are protected from being fried by radiation by the magnetosphere.

Pretty amazing.

And if we work at it we can tap the heat reservoir that is at the core of the Earth. It’s only about 7000 miles in diameter and a temp of several thousand degrees. Lots of energy there available for the taking.

God will provide.

 

[drpmjhess]

Would some folks have been willing to stop the human race a thousand years ago because they worked out the math?.

Do the math: because we inhabit a finite planet, humanity will need to reach zero population growth at some point. An infinite human population on a finite planet is not possible. Do the math.

 

[drpmjhess]

God will provide.

Of course God provides, for a given number of individuals of a species. The earth cannot support an infinite number of squirrels, or of elephants, or of fruit trees. Humans are constrained in terms of ultimate numbers, just like other species.

 

[Al_Masetti]

Do the math: because we inhabit a finite planet, humanity will need to reach zero population growth at some point. An infinite human population on a finite planet is not possible. Do the math.

Not your job to play God.

These decisions are above your pay grade.

 

[Al_Masetti]

Of course God provides, for a given number of individuals of a species. The earth cannot support an infinite number of squirrels, or of elephants, or of fruit trees. Humans are constrained in terms of ultimate numbers, just like other species.

God IS Infinite.

He is capable of figuring out a way … just because some humans can do “human math” doesn’t mean that God is bound by human limitations on imagination.

God’s Infinite Imagination is capable of dreaming up all sorts of solutions to problems that seem intractable and insoluble to mere mortal humans.

I mean … like … some people get upset when they realize that someday … in measurable human time … our Sun will burn out to a dark cinder … or implode into a supernova.

Or whatever.

But that will probably not happen for another five billion years.

Humans have only a recorded history of a few thousand years. Scripture tells us that at some point, there will be the second coming of Christ.

Let us leave up to Him how He deals with the numbers of people on planet Earth at that time.

So, get into your basement/garage laboratory and figure out the nearly infinite jigsaw puzzle that we call Earth (and the cosmos that interacts with it … solar radiation, cosmic rays, … [what kind of name is that anyway … “cosmic rays” … how childish.])

Figure out gravity.

Come up with an easy way to make methanol.

Do you realize that only a relatively few years ago, aluminium was more valuable than gold? And a fellow sat down and came up with a process to make it easily and cheaply … we now use it for lawn chairs and soft drink cans.

So, instead of worrying about the future of civilization, leave the lint in your navel alone and get to work coming up with cheaper alcohol.

 

[Doug50]

Doug,

I cannot accept your arguments as long as the United States works overtime to put accessible fuel sources off limits to development. Coal. Oil. Natural gas. Nuclear. Hydro. And to some extent, Methanol.

We know where the stuff is and how to get at it, but pressure groups have worked effectively to prevent those interested from developing it from doing so.

If we were working at full capacity to develop our energy resources AND we still fell short, then I MIGHT accept your arguments.

But the way it is, whenever someone comes up with a reasonably priced energy source, it gets shot down.

The school of thought you seem to be representing is that because of some exponential math, we need to reduce our population and to develop some Brave New World draconian social restructuring to prevent mass starvation.

Let’s develop what we know we already have in resources before we start instituting a dictatorship of technocrats.

Your read way too much into other’s posts, Al. Exponential growth in demand is real…just like compound interest on your savings. It’s like Prof Smalley said when your in Houston Texas and talking about energy you’ll get that look if you try to talk about energy production while disregarding the logistics in the volumns needed. That’s exactly what you keep doing with me.

Again: you can make hydrogen from water but at what cost and what is the engery source for the electricity to crake it out?

Here’s the volumn again to replace oil that WILL be need in this century: Today the amount of oil the world uses in one year’s time would fill an swimming pool 6.5 feet deep by 82 feet wide by 63,500 miles long - 2.5 times around the world. And you think the market will just simply switch to somethng else without focused effort? The IEA (Interantion Energy Aggency) says the demand with grow (exponentially) from the current rate of use of 86 million bbl/day to 118 million bbl/day by 2030 - that pool is now 3.5 times around the world. As Smalley said in that video (did you even watch it?) “We (humanity) needs on the order of 1 to 10 miracles to produce the 10 terra watts of power that we will need by 2050.” And as he said: If he could take his republican righthand (his pro growth side) and flip a switch that’d turn on a gegawatt (1000 megawatts) everyday, from this new energy source we don’t have yet, he’d have to flip that switch everyday for 27 years. Here’s the lecture again, Al. Bet you don’t watch it.
Prof Rick Smalley - Our Energy Challenge

 

[drpmjhess]

Not your job to play God. These decisions are above your pay grade.

Al, it’s not playing God to inspect your brakes periodically. It’s not playing God to check your investment portfolio for profitability. It’s not playing God to calculate how many dogs you can support on your budget. It’s not playing God to calculate the human carrying capacity of the earth. Wake up and smell the fresh coffee brewing!

 

[Al_Masetti]

Al, it’s not playing God to inspect your brakes periodically. It’s not playing God to check your investment portfolio for profitability. It’s not playing God to calculate how many dogs you can support on your budget. It’s not playing God to calculate the human carrying capacity of the earth. Wake up and smell the fresh coffee brewing!

[sigh]

The Planet Earth is 7000 miles in diameter.

It is a giant source of energy in the form of heat.

So far, humans have only explored the tiniest bit of the Planet Earth.

Just a couple of miles down. And very little of the area that is under the oceans.

So, GET BUSY!

Instead of focusing on how “the sky is falling” and we are on the verge of starvation (which we are not).

The fact is that we just don’t know what the energy budget is for the Planet Earth.

Get busy on finding ways to develop all that energy that the Planet Earth has.

Quit focusing on how we are all doomed.

Quit wasting time going on and on.

Get to work!

 

[drpmjhess]

[sigh]Quit focusing on how we are all doomed. Quit wasting time going on and on. Get to work!

Who said anything about being doomed? I only stated the incontestable fact – which you consistently refuse to acknowledge – that infinite human population growth on a finite planet is impossible. Learn the math.