Poll: Obama leads grow in Ohio, Fla

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Well this is a depressing state of affairs.
  1. Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama’s economic policies, A) They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, or B) They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, or C) They are not improving the economy and probably never will. LIKELY VOTERS… FL OH PA
A) Improving now 34% 33% 27%
B) Will improve 22 25 30
C) Will never improve 43 41 42 ECONOMY WORSE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 1 1 1

Here;s the party breakdown:

FL

28% Republican
34% Democrat
38% Independent

PA

39% Dem
29% Rep
32% Ind

OH

28% Rep
33% Dem
39% Independent

Will it be closer to these, or the Rasmussen model?

unskewedpolls.com/

We shall see.
 
Poll assumes Pennsylvania goes from plus 7 democrat in 2008 to plus 11 in 2012, Ohio goes from democrat plus 8 in 2008 to democrat plus 9 in 2012, Florida from plus democrat 3 in 2008 to plus democrat 9 in 2012

Do democrats really believe democrat turn out will increase and enthusiasm is higher than in 2008?

Democrat registration is down in key states, it has declined by 300000 in FL when republicans have gained
 
How is it that the Republicans ended up with Mitt?
Couldn’t do any better? Really?
 
He_Man said:
Well this is a depressing state of affairs.
  1. Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama’s economic policies, A) They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, or B) They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, or C) They are not improving the economy and probably never will. LIKELY VOTERS… FL OH PA
A) Improving now 34% 33% 27%
B) Will improve 22 25 30
C) Will never improve 43 41 42 ECONOMY WORSE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 1 1 1

Here;s the party breakdown:

FL

28% Republican
34% Democrat
38% Independent

PA

39% Dem
29% Rep
32% Ind

OH

28% Rep
33% Dem
39% Independent

Will it be closer to these, or the Rasmussen model?

unskewedpolls.com/

We shall see.
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There were two pollsters who called the election in 2008 (almost exactly, BTW): Rasmussen and 1 other that I keep forgetting.

Rasmussen today 48-46 Romney.

I subscribe to Morris’s law: the undecideds always go for the challenger.

As such

Romney wins 53-46-1
 
The polls are weighted democratic.

They are being based on the '08 voter turnout because the pollsters are assuming the same will happen this election.

The polls are manipulated and are not a trusted measure.
 
Watching the troops keeping their stiff upper lip is almost causing a little 😦 to my eye at this point.

It is not going well for Prince Romney.

And yet they hold their ranks-
As the liberal horde closes in about them-
Shouting out to one another-
Hold together! Hold strong for the Romney!

:bighanky:
 
Obama isn’t getting anywhere near the same level of support he got in 2008. 2010 was a huge voter statement against what he was doing to the country, and he wasn’t even on the ballot. In 2008 he filled football stadiums during the campaign; in 2012, he moves campaign events (including his convention speech) to smaller arenas to avoid the optics of thousands of empty seats. Only the die-hard Kool-Aid drinkers bought the ‘inclement weather’ argument, especially when he used it in Nevada.

The polls are being skewed heavily in favor of Democrat turnout despite evidence to the contrary. Democrats and liberals are not the ones fired up to vote in this election. The polls are deliberately misleading in order to affect turnout, not to predict it accurately. Wait until the last week of October before the polls become even semi-reliable.

The exception, as always, is Rasmussen, who doesn’t play political gamesmanship with his polling methods and is consistently the most reliable pollster. His numbers show Obama at best in a tie, or leading by a margin-of-error percentage.

There will be much shock and pain among the left on November 7th.
 
This poll is likely biased. If you read other polls, it shows that it is much closer race. The big problem with Romney in Ohio is that he isn’t seen as supportive for manufacturing jobs. But then again, Santorum lost Ohio to Romney. I’m not sure which way Ohio will go in the end. If Romney doesn’t get Ohio, Romney most certainly will lose.
 
More political commenators are talking about the democrat oversampling. Some think the pollsters are not doing it on purpose, some think the pollsters are hyping the democrat turn out purposely either to depress republican enthusiasm and turn out because they think Obama is a shoe in, and/or to make Obama like a like a shoe in to get more donations from his donors
 
Bill O’Reilly spoke with Karl Rove and analyzed the recent polling numbers in swing states. Rove pointed out the importance of the ‘partisan matrix’ in polling and highlighted the CBS/NYT Polls taken in Florida and Ohio. Exit polls from previous elections provide the greatest understanding into what party will potentially have the larger voter turnout. Rove highlighted the flaws in the CBS/NYT Polls in Florida. The Poll is projecting that three times the amount of democratic voters as in 2008 are expected to turnout for the presidential elections:
Click to expand...
video.foxnews.com/v/1863079594001/rove-be-careful-with-polls-carter-once-beat-reagan
Click to expand...
 
ringil said:
Watching the troops keeping their stiff upper lip is almost causing a little 😦 to my eye at this point.

It is not going well for Prince Romney.

And yet they hold their ranks-
As the liberal horde closes in about them-
Shouting out to one another-
Hold together! Hold strong for the Romney!

:bighanky:
Click to expand...
:D:D
 
Borealis said:
There will be much shock and pain among the left on November 7th.
Click to expand...
That much is true.

In 2008 Obama mobilized the Democratic base and turnout was great, but who knows what will happen this year if Romney doesn’t keep mobilizing Democrats to go out and vote?! 😉
 
seekerz said:
That much is true.

In 2008 Obama mobilized the Democratic base and turnout was great, but who knows what will happen this year if Romney doesn’t keep mobilizing Democrats to go out and vote?! 😉
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I don’t think it’s a matter of Romney not motivating democrats, he’s not motivating his own party. While I know many people who will vote for him, they aren’t excited about it. I think it is going to be a default election with obama winning. Unfortunately by 2016, I have a feeling Obama will be the Democratic equivalent of Bush 43. He’ll have his motivated followers, but even they will turn on him out of office.
 
benjammin said:
I don’t think it’s a matter of Romney not motivating democrats, he’s not motivating his own party. While I know many people who will vote for him, they aren’t excited about it. I think it is going to be a default election with obama winning. Unfortunately by 2016, I have a feeling Obama will be the Democratic equivalent of Bush 43. He’ll have his motivated followers, but even they will turn on him out of office.
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CNN’s latest democrat oversampling found republican enthusiasm 6 points higher than democrats so it is difficult to see how Romney is not motiviating republicans
 
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