Poll: Obama leads grow in Ohio, Fla

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’Unskewed’ polls show nearly 8-point Romney lead

NEW YORK – Arguing that most of the major polls reported by establishment media are “skewed” in favor of the Democratic Party and incumbent Barack Obama, a website contends that a true gauge of the presidential race, based on more realistic models, shows Republican challenger Mitt Romney leading by an average of nearly eight points.
In its daily readjustment of the polling data, UnskewedPoll.com also produces a table showing the spread in President Obama’s approval/disapproval ratio is an average of 8.8 percent more disapproval, as of Monday.
Not a single major poll or approval/disapproval index favors Obama when Unskewed.com’s analysis is applied.



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buffalo said:
’Unskewed’ polls show nearly 8-point Romney lead

NEW YORK – Arguing that most of the major polls reported by establishment media are “skewed” in favor of the Democratic Party and incumbent Barack Obama, a website contends that a true gauge of the presidential race, based on more realistic models, shows Republican challenger Mitt Romney leading by an average of nearly eight points.
In its daily readjustment of the polling data, UnskewedPoll.com also produces a table showing the spread in President Obama’s approval/disapproval ratio is an average of 8.8 percent more disapproval, as of Monday.
Not a single major poll or approval/disapproval index favors Obama when Unskewed.com’s analysis is applied.
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Unskewed is nonsense:

guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/sep/27/unskewing-polls-party-id-bunk

From the article:

“Indeed, it is a ridiculous charge that the media purposely skews polls. If so, they have persuaded many Republicans to get in on the act. Polls from Fox News – an organization few would accuse of a pro-Democratic bias – have shown poor results for Romney. (Its polling is also partially run by the openly Republican Daron Shaw.) The NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll is part run by Bill McInturff: a Republican, John McCain’s own pollster, and professional partner to Mitt Romney’s pollster. The GWU/Battleground poll has Republican pollster Ed Goeas on board. The list goes on and on.”

…] “That’s why Scott Rasmussen himself has said that you can’t apply one firm’s part identification to another firm’s results and expect anything accurate to come of it.”

…]"We therefore have two pollsters with good track records showing very different party identification make-ups for the 2012 electorate. Should we choose Pew or Rasmussen?

Pew does everything a pollster should do. They call cellphones and have very long survey periods to ensure an accurate representation of all parts of the American electorate, even those who might be difficult to reach. Pew was also correct in the 2010 midterm elections, while Rasmussen was off."
 
_Abyssinia said:
CNN’s latest democrat oversampling found republican enthusiasm 6 points higher than democrats so it is difficult to see how Romney is not motiviating republicans
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Of course he is motivating Republicans…as well as Democrats and Independents - he’s got the whole 47% fired up and then he’s got that 53% revved up too… The man’s a maverick if ever there was.
 
Al_Moritz said:
Unskewed is nonsense:

guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/sep/27/unskewing-polls-party-id-bunk

From the article:

“Indeed, it is a ridiculous charge that the media purposely skews polls. If so, they have persuaded many Republicans to get in on the act. Polls from Fox News – an organization few would accuse of a pro-Democratic bias – have shown poor results for Romney. (Its polling is also partially run by the openly Republican Daron Shaw.) The NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll is part run by Bill McInturff: a Republican, John McCain’s own pollster, and professional partner to Mitt Romney’s pollster. The GWU/Battleground poll has Republican pollster Ed Goeas on board. The list goes on and on.”

…] “That’s why Scott Rasmussen himself has said that you can’t apply one firm’s part identification to another firm’s results and expect anything accurate to come of it.”

…]"We therefore have two pollsters with good track records showing very different party identification make-ups for the 2012 electorate. Should we choose Pew or Rasmussen?

Pew does everything a pollster should do. They call cellphones and have very long survey periods to ensure an accurate representation of all parts of the American electorate, even those who might be difficult to reach. Pew was also correct in the 2010 midterm elections, while Rasmussen was off."
Click to expand...
If polls oversample democrats to turn out bigger than 2008 thar seems based more on hope that accuracy. These polls do not take in to consideration either the fact that polls have shown voter enthusiam for democrats is lower than it is for republicans and that republicans have higher political identification than democrats

Rasmussen was the closest accurate presidential pollster in 2004, and according to a study by Fordham university in 2008, and rasmussen shows Obama and Romney with in the margin or error in the swing states - it does not show Obama ahead by the points that Nbc, cbs, nyt, fox etc are claiming
 
_Abyssinia said:
CNN’s latest democrat oversampling found republican enthusiasm 6 points higher than democrats so it is difficult to see how Romney is not motiviating republicans
Click to expand...
Hmmm, that is interesting. I guess I must be the one not motivated. Oh well I will still vote for him
 
_Abyssinia said:
If polls oversample democrats to turn out bigger than 2008 thar seems based more on hope that accuracy. These polls do not take in to consideration either the fact that polls have shown voter enthusiam for democrats is lower than it is for republicans and that republicans have higher political identification than democrats

Rasmussen was the closest accurate presidential pollster in 2004, and according to a study by Fordham university in 2008, and rasmussen shows Obama and Romney with in the margin or error in the swing states - it does not show Obama ahead by the points that Nbc, cbs, nyt, fox etc are claiming
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Not so fast. Weighting by party ID is not scientific:

washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-morning-plum-no-pollsters-are-not-conspiring-to-destroy-romney/2012/09/25/cf6c2af4-06fb-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_blog.html
 
Luigi_Daniele said:
A blog? Seriously?
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In the short time you can impossibly have read the article. If you are unwilling to actually inform yourself, instead of letting your bias always overrule everything, rational discourse is not possible.
 
Al_Moritz said:
In the short time you can impossibly have read the article. If you are unwilling to actually inform yourself, instead of letting your bias always overrule everything, rational discourse is not possible.
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That cuts both ways, sir.
 
Al_Moritz said:
In the short time you can impossibly have read the article. If you are unwilling to actually inform yourself, instead of letting your bias always overrule everything, rational discourse is not possible.
Click to expand...
I read the article and briefly researched the author.

Key Wiki identifies Greg Sargent, author of the Washington Post article, as follows:

“Greg Sargent, of the Washington Post, was an identified member of JournoList - an email group of approximately 400 “progressive” and socialist journalists, academics and “new media” activists. JournoList members reportedly coordinated their messages in favor of Barack Obama and the Democrats, and against Sarah Palin and the Republican Party. JournoList was founded in 2007 and was closed down in early 2010.”

This is the author of the article you want Luigi to read because he Luigi} lets his “bias always overrule everything”? Seriously? Greg Sargent epitomizes the word “bias” from the left. His reporting promotes the Obama leftist agenda.
 
Al_Moritz said:
Not so fast. Weighting by party ID is not scientific:

washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-morning-plum-no-pollsters-are-not-conspiring-to-destroy-romney/2012/09/25/cf6c2af4-06fb-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_blog.html
Click to expand...
Washington post has oversampled democrats in their polls so no wonder they are defending them. If you want to trust polls that plus 19 democrat oversampled, like Pew, in ohio, when the 2008 turn out was democrat plus 8, that is your prerogative, but I do not

2008 democrat turn out was not seen since Nixon, the republican ground game was not that of democrats. Republicans stayed home. I do not think circumstances are there for democrats to have the turn out enthusiasm and registering advantage that was there in 2008
 
Tampa_Dave said:
I read the article and briefly researched the author.

Key Wiki identifies Greg Sargent, author of the Washington Post article, as follows:

“Greg Sargent, of the Washington Post, was an identified member of JournoList - an email group of approximately 400 “progressive” and socialist journalists, academics and “new media” activists. JournoList members reportedly coordinated their messages in favor of Barack Obama and the Democrats, and against Sarah Palin and the Republican Party. JournoList was founded in 2007 and was closed down in early 2010.”

This is the author of the article you want Luigi to read because he [Luigi} lets his “bias always overrule everything”? Seriously? Greg Sargent epitomizes the word “bias” from the left. His reporting promotes the Obama leftist agenda.
Click to expand...
Grazie, fratello! 👍
[/quote]
 
Al_Moritz said:
Unskewed is nonsense:

guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/sep/27/unskewing-polls-party-id-bunk

From the article:

“Indeed, it is a ridiculous charge that the media purposely skews polls. If so, they have persuaded many Republicans to get in on the act. Polls from Fox News – an organization few would accuse of a pro-Democratic bias – have shown poor results for Romney. (Its polling is also partially run by the openly Republican Daron Shaw.) The NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll is part run by Bill McInturff: a Republican, John McCain’s own pollster, and professional partner to Mitt Romney’s pollster. The GWU/Battleground poll has Republican pollster Ed Goeas on board. The list goes on and on.”

…] “That’s why Scott Rasmussen himself has said that you can’t apply one firm’s part identification to another firm’s results and expect anything accurate to come of it.”

…]"We therefore have two pollsters with good track records showing very different party identification make-ups for the 2012 electorate. Should we choose Pew or Rasmussen?

Pew does everything a pollster should do. They call cellphones and have very long survey periods to ensure an accurate representation of all parts of the American electorate, even those who might be difficult to reach. Pew was also correct in the 2010 midterm elections, while Rasmussen was off."
Click to expand...
Your claim is that they do not weight according to expected turnout?
 
_Abyssinia said:
Washington post has oversampled democrats in their polls so no wonder they are defending them. If you want to trust polls that plus 19 democrat oversampled, like Pew, in ohio, when the 2008 turn out was democrat plus 8, that is your prerogative, but I do not

2008 democrat turn out was not seen since Nixon, the republican ground game was not that of democrats. Republicans stayed home. I do not think circumstances are there for democrats to have the turn out enthusiasm and registering advantage that was there in 2008
Click to expand...
FOX News as well?
 
I was just polled again. Live person on the other end. Not a press 1, 2 type of poll. Lots of questions. I enjoy it actually. My 3rd time this election season I’ve been polled by 3 different organizations. Put me down I told her for very likely to vote for Barack Obama. (Well definitely if that had been a choice.) .
 
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