I read this article and it aggravated me a little. I would like to know where he gets his numbers citing that, and I quote "a demographic shift in American religion that has saddled the church with the largest net loss of one-time members of any major faith"
can someone steer me to a link that reflects good numbers in terms of members in our church? The writer told me he got them from a recent pew study.
Pick a number any number.
“Largest net loss of one-time members”: What does that even mean?
Ok. So, I found the Pew report and “net loss” is defined by the % of the US population who reported that they were raised catholic in the USA (31.4%) vs. the number of adults who say they are catholic today in the (23.9%). So the “net loss” is -7.5%.
It looks like the data is based on a survey of 35,556 adults. i.e. This isn’t actual census type population data.
If you dig a bit deeper in the study, you will find that the conversion numbers look something like this for Childhood faith retention:
No Change Converted To Other Religion To No Religion
Total US 56.5% 30.1% 13.4%
Catholic 68% 18% 14.0%
Protestant 52% 35% 13.0%
Within the 48% of the Protestant community that changed “religions” from childhood to adulthood 28% changed from one Protestant denomination to another. So though protestants change from their childhood denomination at a 16% higher rate than Catholics the summary concludes that Catholics saw the “Largest Net Loss” because most Protestant “conversion” are from one Protestant Denomination to another so the total size of the “Protestant” group doesn’t change all that much.
Here’s another interesting difference Catholics bounce around between 22% and 25% of the populations for 10 year age brackets from 18-70+ while the protestant % of the US populations rises steadily from 43% of the 18-29 group to 62% of the over 70 crowd. The unaffiliated group follows the reverse trend with 25% of the population from 18-29 falling steadily to 8% of the over 70 group.
Chuck