Well, my impression was that it assumes the best available technology and generates an upper bound (i.e would assume that the African actually has top of the line stuff if they don’t).
Either way, the main problem with this measurement is that current methods are not sustainable. Even if there is more oil than we know of, there is still a finite amount of it.
Here’s an interesting article:
ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/06/cheap-food/bourne-text
National Geographic was such an interesting magazine to read back when it simply provided factual descriptions of the various places in the world, back before it became a propaganda vehicle.
Just a few observations from the article:
-It wasn’t farming the commons that ended importation of food in England in the 19th century. Importation never ended. Not then, not now.
-Any article that relies on dramatic anecdotes is automatically to be discounted. From the article:
"Walking through the narrow dirt lanes past pyramids of dried cow dung, Singh introduces Amarjeet Kaur, a slender 40-year-old who for years drew the family’s daily water from a hand pump in their brick-hard compound. She was diagnosed with breast cancer last year. Tej Kaur, 50, also has breast cancer. Her surgery, she says, wasn’t nearly as painful as losing her seven-year-old grandson to “blood cancer,” or leukemia. Jagdev Singh is a sweet-faced 14-year-old boy whose spine is slowly deteriorating. From his wheelchair, he is watching SpongeBob SquarePants dubbed in Hindi as his father discusses his prognosis. “The doctors say he will not live to see 20,” says Bhola Singh.
There’s no proof these cancers were caused by pesticides."
The article goes on, however, to strongly suggest that they were anyway. Very sad. Very dramatic. No substance.
As to the “expected” nine billion by mid century or the “expected” ten billion by the end of the century (curious if taken together), it must be remembered again that most of the world, including India, is not replacing its population. To reduce that nine billion, you really are going to have to stop births or kill those already born. Population bombers aren’t going to be able to do either one.
This population bomb stuff began with Paul Ehrlich, who was spectaculy wrong. For instance, he said this in 1968:
“India couldn’t possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980.” I have yet to meet anyone familiar with the situation who thinks that India will be self-sufficient in food by 1971."
Of course, India did become self-sufficient in food despite the population increase.
While we’re trading speculations and anecdotes, and before one or the other of us just gets bored with it, since neither is going to convince the other, I would like to share this anecdote, which is at least illustrative in a small way how I see all this “we’re running out of resources” business.
Evidently University of Maryland professor Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich were fond of debating each other about whether the world was, or was not, running out of resources. Simon argued that it isn’t. Ehrlich, of course, famously argued that it was. They decided on a wager to demonstrate the point of view of each.
Simon had Ehrlich choose five of several commodity metals. Ehrlich chose 5 metals: copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten. Simon bet that their prices would go down. Ehrlich bet they would go up.
The basket of goods, costing $1,000 in 1980, fell in price by over 57% over the following decade. As a result, in October 1990, Paul Ehrlich mailed Julian Simon a check for $576.07 to settle the wager in Simon’s favor.
We might speak again, flying fish, depending on our time and interest levels (but not tonight). But that’s where you and I are, old buddy. I’m not a betting man, and I doubt wagering is tolerated on CAF, but if that was not the case, I would make a bet with you.
Oh, just as an aside. I remember some 25 years ago when my grandfather retired and sold off his cattle herd. Being an eager pupil of such things at the time, I remembered the prices he received for his feeder steers. Those prices returned again, from the downside, in February of this year. I’ll admit, they’re higher now, by about 8 cents/lb for feeders. I predict they’ll go up some more this year, slowly, then spike in 2011 unless this government makes this recession worse, which it might. Two years after the spike, three at the absolute most, they’ll go down again unless this government makes the dollar even more worthless than it is now, which it might. Trust me. Don’t be long in cattle futures in 2012.