Powerful evidence for Design?

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Every time I shuffle three packs of cards together I break the Universal Probability Bound. It is not a magic incantation that automatically blocks processes that are inconvenient for you.

rossum
You have not specified the order.

Shuffle the deck three time. What are the odds of the exact same order?

Now say you specify the wanted order to be A-2, hearts, spades, diamonds and clubs.

How many shuffles will that take? Assume you could shuffle once per second. Is there enough time since the beginning of the universe?
 
You have not specified the order.
You are shifting the goalposts. Your post asked: “Do you accept the Universal Probability Bound?” and just that. Nothing at all about “specified”. The UPB is essentially useless, in that many events break it easily. Assembling the material for a single grain of sand breaks the UPB. How many grains of sand are there in the universe?
How many shuffles will that take? Assume you could shuffle once per second. Is there enough time since the beginning of the universe?
You are assuming a random shuffle. If you are not modelling a random process, then you cannot use a model based on random (name removed by moderator)uts. To take a specific example, what is the chance of finding a piece of DNA reading: “AAAAAAAAAA … AAAAA”, with over 100 A’s? A calculation assuming random (name removed by moderator)ut would be wrong, because there are processes involving Polyadenylation and retrotransposition that insert long stretches of “AAAAAA…” into DNA. Because the process is not random, you cannot use models, or calculations, based on an assumption of randomness. Hence your frequent recourse to the UPB is not always appropriate. You have to show, scientifically, that a random model is appropriate.

The sequence “AAAAAAAAAAAA … AAAAAAAAAAA” is specified by, “more than one hundred consecutive adenine bases,” and is found in mammalian genomes, including the human genome.

As I said, your reliance on the UPB is misplaced. It has its place, but that place is a lot smaller than you seem to think is is. It only applies within certain models. For other models it is invalid and presents no barrier at all.

rossum
 
No, not at all. But that has to be used where an actual contradicton canbe defined, or another factor doesn’t enter in. Your arguments just aren’t demonstrably congruent with actuality as some know it to be. You are not dividing things finely enough to use the rule you attribute your “logic” to. All that works very well in the realm where you think you have a self and self control. It’sjust that that is not where things or human experience or being stops or is entierly contained.

When you arrive at the only possible outcome of your spiritual practice, not your logical one, you will have a vastly different premise to reason from than what you are now attemptiing to cobble together, as wonderfully well as it works in your own mind, to explain things. And that’s fine, but you are attemptiing to convince people, at least some people, who operate from a radically different expereince, not book learning, of what theism is about. It just won’t work, and we will always be at odds until you move on to another kind of premise,one based on and in reality, not what reality *appears *to be to the senses and the work of “the adversary” as it is personalized.
There is clearly no point in attempting to have a discussion with a person who is convinced his premise is “based on and in reality” - and all other interpretations are false.
 
If I ask an adult, “Are you the same now as you were when you were aged ten?”, their answer would be “No, I’ve changed since then.”
The qualities of a person change but the person retains his or her permanent identity. Passports and driving licences are not issued to serial individuals.

Why specify an arbitrary “instant” as a person’s life span?

Do you reject the scientific, legal and pragmatic concepts of a person?
We are not illusions. We have an illusion that we have a “self”. That is the root of many of our problems.
It doesn’t make sense to refer to “we” if there are no selves.
The reason that it does so is that many different people assign the universe different purposes. None of those different purposes are intrinsic to the universe; all of them are externally assigned.
Then it’s reasonable to believe the universe has the assigned purpose of sustaining those who assign purposes!
Then you believe in a Creator without a Creator?
One uncreated Creator of the universe is a far more cogent and economical explanation than countless uncreated procreators. 🙂
 
There is clearly no point in attempting to have a discussion with a person who is convinced his premise is “based on and in reality” - and all other interpretations are false.
So let me be clear: Because you are so adamant that your delineation of design is the only possibility, I should not communicate with you?
 
There is clearly no point in attempting to have a discussion with a person who is convinced his premise is “based on and in reality” - and all other interpretations are false.
I simply stated a fact. I don’t believe I’m infallible and spend much of my time discussing the subject with those who disagree with me - provided they deal **objectively **with specific issues and don’t indulge in personal lectures like:
When **you **arrive at the only possible outcome of your spiritual practice, ** not your logical one, **you will have a vastly different premise to reason from than what you are now attemptiing to cobble together, as wonderfully well as it works in your own mind, to explain things. And that’s fine, but you are attemptiing to convince people, at least some people, who operate from a radically different expereince, not book learning, of what theism is about. It just won’t work, and we will always be at odds until you move on to another kind of premise,one based on and in reality, not what reality *appears *to be to the senses and the work of “the adversary” as it is personalized.
Those remarks are not only discourteous and condescending but irrelevant and inappropriate on a philosophical forum.
 
The qualities of a person change but the person retains his or her permanent identity.
It is the philosophical justification for that"permanent identity" which we are talking about. You agree that the qualities change, and so are not permanent. If you remove all the qualities, then what is left? Show me any evidence for this “permanent identity” you claim exists after all the qualities have been removed.
Passports and driving licences are not issued to serial individuals.
Passports expire after a few years, so a new photograph can be used. Driving licences in the UK expire at various ages and new tests, such as eyesight, are needed.
Why specify an arbitrary “instant” as a person’s life span?
You can never step in the same river twice. It is not the same river, and it is not the same you.
Do you reject the scientific, legal and pragmatic concepts of a person?
No. I am arguing on a philosophical level. Legally a chimaera is a single person; scientifically they are two separate people because they have two different sets of DNA. The scientific and legal concepts of a person are not the same.
It doesn’t make sense to refer to “we” if there are no selves.
Pragmatism only.
Then it’s reasonable to believe the universe has the assigned purpose of sustaining those who assign purposes!
In your model of the universe maybe, but not in mine. Who or what assigned the purpose?
One uncreated Creator of the universe is a far more cogent and economical explanation than countless uncreated procreators. 🙂
Why not one uncreated Creator-Creator?

rossum
 
You are shifting the goalposts. Your post asked: “Do you accept the Universal Probability Bound?” and just that. Nothing at all about “specified”. The UPB is essentially useless, in that many events break it easily. Assembling the material for a single grain of sand breaks the UPB. How many grains of sand are there in the universe?

You are assuming a random shuffle. If you are not modelling a random process, then you cannot use a model based on random (name removed by moderator)uts. To take a specific example, what is the chance of finding a piece of DNA reading: “AAAAAAAAAA … AAAAA”, with over 100 A’s? A calculation assuming random (name removed by moderator)ut would be wrong, because there are processes involving Polyadenylation and retrotransposition that insert long stretches of “AAAAAA…” into DNA. Because the process is not random, you cannot use models, or calculations, based on an assumption of randomness. Hence your frequent recourse to the UPB is not always appropriate. You have to show, scientifically, that a random model is appropriate.

The sequence “AAAAAAAAAAAA … AAAAAAAAAAA” is specified by, “more than one hundred consecutive adenine bases,” and is found in mammalian genomes, including the human genome.

As I said, your reliance on the UPB is misplaced. It has its place, but that place is a lot smaller than you seem to think is is. It only applies within certain models. For other models it is invalid and presents no barrier at all.

rossum
Not at all. Simply asking a question as a starting point.

The UPB is a threshold where events beyond give confidence it was not a chance event. There are less grains of sand in the universe than the UPB.

Look at this video at the thirty minute mark: stay til you see the sand example. I would like your thoughts.

Yes - I am assuming a random shuffle. Are you advocating a specified shuffle?

I am glad we agree there is at least a place for the UPB.👍
 
The qualities of a person change but the person retains his or her permanent identity.
It is putting the cart before the horse to think of “removing qualities”… Qualities are like adjectives in presupposing an entity to which they refer. They don’t exist in a void nor is their co-existence explained without reference to an enduring person or object.

Everything and everyone has qualities whereas nothing is distinguished by its total lack of qualities.

There are many objections to phenomenalism, some which are presented online:

plato.stanford.edu/entries/perception-episprob/
Passports and driving licences are not issued to serial individuals.
Passports expire after a few years, so a new photograph can be used. Driving licences in the UK expire at various ages and new tests, such as eyesight, are needed.

Photographs and driving licences refer to **one **individual without whom physical and spiritual development wouldn’t exist.
Why specify an arbitrary “instant” as a person’s life span?
You can never step in the same river twice. It is not the same river, and it is not the same you.

Persons aren’t rivers! You can’t divide a person into bits like a material object.
Do you reject the scientific, legal and pragmatic concepts of a person?
No. I am arguing on a philosophical level. Legally a chimaera is a single person; scientifically they are two separate people because they have two different sets of DNA. The scientific and legal concepts of a person are not the same.

They both refer to an enduring entity.
It doesn’t make sense to refer to “we” if there are no selves.
Pragmatism only.

Logic.
Then it’s reasonable to believe the universe has the assigned purpose of sustaining those who assign purposes!
In your model of the universe maybe, but not in mine.

In any coherent model; otherwise assigners are unassigned!
Who or what assigned the purpose?
The Assigner is the best available explanation.
One uncreated Creator of the universe is a far more cogent and economical explanation than countless uncreated procreators.
Why not one uncreated Creator-Creator?

Why not? That’s an excellent definition of the Necessary, Supreme Being…
 
It is putting the cart before the horse to think of “removing qualities”… Qualities are like adjectives in presupposing an entity to which they refer. They don’t exist in a void nor is their co-existence explained without reference to an enduring person or object.
In fact, the person is the cart, the baggage, the “impedi-mentia.” Removing the cart, or qualities and attributes frees the horse. then you can train the horse of the mind to range the landscape without what keeps it on the worn path of habit and belief.
Everything and everyone has qualities whereas nothing is distinguished by its total lack of qualities.
Save for God, which or whom, has no attribute or quality save Being.
There are many objections to phenomenalism, some which are presented online:
OK, there were eonough objections to Jesus that He was crucified. Objections are objects, things you “throw,” if you look up the root. And we have, for the most part, been stoned with objectivism.
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>  Photographs and driving licences refer to **one **individual without whom physical and spiritual development wouldn't exist.



Ys, and that individual in essence has no attributes. The "physical and spiritual devlopment" are add-ons perceived onlyu in the realm of thre dimensionality as perceived by the human senses. Where are those for you when you are in deep sleep?




> Persons aren't rivers! You can't divide a person into bits like a material object.



You don't experience yourself as a river because you haven't allowed youself that paradigm. And yet, in the space-time continuum, the "person" can be "seen" as a worm somewhat but not really discreet from what appear at our very limited level as "boundaries." in fact, those "boundaries" are very arbitrary and pertinent only to a tiny fragment of the spectrum of scale.



> They both refer to an enduring entity.



No, they refer to the presentation to the senses of the underlying individual.



> Logic.



Yes, but low order logic and again not premised on the underlying reality.



> In any coherent model; otherwise assigners are unassigned!



Athey are to reality as such. Your model deals only with what is superficially available to senses even if augmented by instrumentation and mentation. And coherency does not imply reality, as validity may not imply truth except within the limits of the discription.



> The Assigner is the best available explanation.



That "Assigner" necessarily being a construct within your scope of ability to perceive and exerience, as much as is "person."

 

> Why not? That's an excellent definition of the Necessary, Supreme Being... 



Yes, but you fell into Rossum's linguistic trap, as you appear to fall into many of your own. Your explanation of the supreme Being is limited to your perameters of mentality as they stand. It can't be optherwise. While your referent may BE, your explanation is not the BEING itself, and proportionally neither in the same feild or scale. In human terms, unless expereinced, "eternality" "allness" etc are all null appointers save in the sense of a model used to make the ineffable thinkable.

But there is a vast difference between a construct taken on because of a belief, and one explicated as a result of such an insight as has ben given to some Saints and Sages. Since those are coherent and uniform through all time and every other temporal difference, for all practical concerns, and even are congruent with the Teachings of Jesus and many Catholic mystics, I'll stick with that Way.
 
In fact, the person is the cart, the baggage, the “impedi-mentia.” Removing the cart, or qualities and attributes frees the horse. then you can train the horse of the mind to range the landscape without what keeps it on the worn path of habit and belief.

Save for God, which or whom, has no attribute or quality save Being.
Please justify that opinion.
OK, there were eonough objections to Jesus that He was crucified. Objections are objects, things you “throw,” if you look up the root. And we have, for the most part, been stoned with objectivism.
Is nothing objective?
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> Ys, and that individual in essence has no attributes. The "physical and spiritual devlopment" are add-ons perceived onlyu in the realm of thre dimensionality as perceived by the human senses. Where are those for you when you are in deep sleep?




I fail to understand how sleep affects the nature of reality.



> You don't experience yourself as a river because you haven't allowed youself that paradigm. And yet, in the space-time continuum, the "person" can be "seen" as a worm somewhat but not really discreet from what appear at our very limited level as "boundaries." in fact, those "boundaries" are very arbitrary and pertinent only to a tiny fragment of the spectrum of scale.

> No, they refer to the presentation to the senses of the underlying individual.

> Yes, but low order logic and again not premised on the underlying reality.

> Athey are to reality as such. Your model deals only with what is superficially available to senses even if augmented by instrumentation and mentation. And coherency does not imply reality, as validity may not imply truth except within the limits of the discription.

> That "Assigner" necessarily being a construct within your scope of ability to perceive and exerience, as much as is "person."

>  Yes, but you fell into Rossum's linguistic trap, as you appear to fall into many of your own. Your explanation of the supreme Being is limited to your perameters of mentality as they stand. It can't be optherwise. While your referent may BE, your explanation is not the BEING itself, and proportionally neither in the same feild or scale. In human terms, unless expereinced, "eternality" "allness" etc are all null appointers save in the sense of a model used to make the ineffable thinkable.

> But there is a vast difference between a construct taken on because of a belief, and one explicated as a result of such an insight as has ben given to some Saints and Sages. Since those are coherent and uniform through all time and every other temporal difference, for all practical concerns, and even are congruent with the Teachings of Jesus and many Catholic mystics, I'll stick with that Way.



You are entitled to your opinion.
 
The UPB is a threshold where events beyond give confidence it was not a chance event.
So, shuffling three packs of cards together is “not a chance event”? Complete rubbish. The chances of assembling the molecules for a single grain of sand exceeds the UPB. Things that exceed the UPB happen all the time.
Yes - I am assuming a random shuffle.
And the chances of that particular shuffle happening exceeds the UPB, yet we can shuffle the cards without any problem. The UPB does not prevent a barrier to something happening.
I am glad we agree there is at least a place for the UPB.👍
Good.

The UPB is misused to look at the ‘probability’ of things after the event. When I shuffle three packs of cards, the probability of getting that exact order is indeed greater than the UPB. That does not prevent that exact order happening. When I shuffle the cards there is 100% chance of me getting some order or other.

Merely looking at probabilities after the event, and applying the UPB before the event is a misuse. After the event, there is 100% chance of getting something.

rossum
 
It is putting the cart before the horse to think of “removing qualities”… Qualities are like adjectives in presupposing an entity to which they refer. They don’t exist in a void nor is their co-existence explained without reference to an enduring person or object.
A house is made of bricks. Remove all the bricks and what is left? There is no permanent “essence of house” present before the first brick is laid, not is there anything left after the last brick has been removed. There is no actual entity “house” that exists beyond the bricks used to construct it. The word “house” is merely a convenient abbreviation for “6,358 bricks arranged as described in the attached plan”.
There are many objections to phenomenalism, some which are presented online:
And philosophers have still not settled on the answer, nor am I holding my breath waiting for them to agree.
Photographs and driving licences refer to **one **individual without whom physical and spiritual development wouldn’t exist.
Indeed, photographs pick out one temporal moment in a long series of temporal moments dhrough which the individual changes.
Persons aren’t rivers! You can’t divide a person into bits like a material object.
Part of a person is material. The non-material parts are all changing, and so can be time-sliced into different parts.
They both refer to an enduring entity.
They both refer to a changing entity, and since it changes it cannot be enduring. Scientific observation shown cells dying and splitting – the body is constantly changing. Legally a person changes form being unable to give valid consent when a minor. As an adult they are legally able to give valid consent. I old age they may change again, and no longer be considered able to give a legally valid consent. The legal person changes, and hence cannot be permanent. Anything that changes cannot be permanent.
The Assigner is the best available explanation.
As soon as you use these words with capital letters, like “Assigner”, then I will call you on reification. I do not accept reification. Does the existence of beauty mean that there is a ‘Beautician’ (capital letter) who must be worshipped in perma-tan salons every Wednesday afternoon, and at the nail parlour every Saturday morning?
Why not? That’s an excellent definition of the Necessary, Supreme Being…
Not supreme. There is also the Creator-Creator Creator, who created the Creator-Creator.

It is also worth pointing out that is the Creator is Necessary then everything that is created is also Necessary. Since created things are obviously not Necessary then the Creator is also not Necessary.

Note the number of capitalised words there, as well.

rossum
 
A house is made of bricks. Remove all the bricks and what is left? There is no permanent “essence of house” present before the first brick is laid, not is there anything left after the last brick has been removed. There is no actual entity “house” that exists beyond the bricks used to construct it. The word “house” is merely a convenient abbreviation for “6,358 bricks arranged as described in the attached plan”.
Perfect.
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> As soon as you use these words with capital letters, like "Assigner", then I will call you on reification.  I do not accept reification.  Does the existence of beauty mean that there is a 'Beautician' (capital letter) who must be worshipped in perma-tan salons every Wednesday afternoon, and at the nail parlour every Saturday morning?



That is Priceless! 

.



> It is also worth pointing out that is the Creator is Necessary then everything that is created is also Necessary.  Since created things are obviously not Necessary then the Creator is also not Necessary.

> Note the number of capitalised words there, as well. 



Well said.
 
It is putting the cart before the horse to think of “removing qualities”… Qualities are like adjectives in presupposing an entity to which they refer. They don’t exist in a void nor is their co-existence explained without reference to an enduring person or object.
A house is an inanimate, material object whereas a person is a living organism with a mind and soul.
There are many objections to phenomenalism, some which are presented online:
And philosophers have still not settled on the answer, nor am I holding my breath waiting for them to agree.

Your failure to refute their arguments weakens your position. In addition, disagreement between philosophers doesn’t imply that all their objections are false.
Photographs and driving licences refer to one individual without whom physical and spiritual development wouldn’t exist.
Indeed, photographs pick out one temporal moment in a long series of temporal moments dhrough which the individual changes.
  1. Change doesn’t entail a loss of identity.
  2. Choices and decisions do not terminate a person’s existence.
  3. Development cannot occur if a person exists only for a fleeting instant.
Persons aren’t rivers! You can’t divide a person into bits like a material object.
Part of a person is material. The non-material parts are all changing, and so can be time-sliced into different parts.

The body has continuity from birth till death - as any medical practitioner will tell you.
The spirit also has continuity because it is not subject to physical conditions and it transcends time and space.
They both refer to a changing entity, and since it changes it cannot be enduring.
Change by itself does not entail the end of a person’s existence.
Scientific observation shown cells dying and splitting – the body is constantly changing.
They don’t all die simultaneously! Otherwise you would have a case.
Legally a person changes form being unable to give valid consent when a minor. As an adult they are legally able to give valid consent. I old age they may change again, and no longer be considered able to give a legally valid consent. The legal person changes, and hence cannot be permanent. Anything that changes cannot be permanent.
According to that argument a person only changes twice in a lifetime - not every instant!
The Assigner is the best available explanation.
As soon as you use these words with capital letters, like “Assigner”, then I will call you on reification. I do not accept reification.

Capitalisation simply implies unique status - like Design or “Chance and Necessity” (used by the atheist Jacques Monod as the title for his book).
Does the existence of beauty mean that there is a ‘Beautician’ (capital letter) who must be worshipped in perma-tan salons every Wednesday afternoon, and at the nail parlour every Saturday morning?
It means Beauty is a fundamental aspect of reality - like Truth, Goodness, Freedom and Love.
Why not? That’s an excellent definition of the Necessary, Supreme Being…
Not supreme. There is also the Creator-Creator Creator, who created the Creator-Creator.

Do you believe in an infinite regress?
It is also worth pointing out that is the Creator is Necessary then everything that is created is also Necessary.
Not necessarily! The Creator is Necessary because everything (and everyone) is contingent.
Since created things are obviously not Necessary then the Creator is also not Necessary.
It is absurd to think the Creator has the same existential status as creatures.
Note the number of capitalised words there, as well.
Don’t you capitalise Enlightenment and Nirvana?
 
A house is an inanimate, material object whereas a person is a living organism with a mind and soul.
Just a few; have to get to work. I know it is Sunday; but about what “day” can you not say: “This is the day the Lord hath made,” even if you don’t quite understand it in the usual way.
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> According to that argument a person only changes twice in a lifetime - not every instant!



You appear to have misread the statement: cells are continually dying and being replaced, often in a changed way. 



> Not necessarily! The Creator is Necessary because everything (and everyone) is contingent.



Contingency doesn't imply creation necessarily, onlyu in the creationist paradiagm, e. g. one permutaion-- "design."



> It is absurd to think the Creator has the same existential status as creatures.



You are assuming a creator, and you assume that the creator is distinct from creation.




> Don't you capitalise Enlightenment and Nirvana? 



I sometimes do, as with other words, to distinguish popthought from what is far more accurate as pointing to something ineffable, or about experience. but not always.
 
So, shuffling three packs of cards together is “not a chance event”? Complete rubbish. The chances of assembling the molecules for a single grain of sand exceeds the UPB. Things that exceed the UPB happen all the time.

And the chances of that particular shuffle happening exceeds the UPB, yet we can shuffle the cards without any problem. The UPB does not prevent a barrier to something happening.

Good.

The UPB is misused to look at the ‘probability’ of things after the event. When I shuffle three packs of cards, the probability of getting that exact order is indeed greater than the UPB. That does not prevent that exact order happening. When I shuffle the cards there is 100% chance of me getting some order or other.

Merely looking at probabilities after the event, and applying the UPB before the event is a misuse. After the event, there is 100% chance of getting something.

rossum
You will note I never use the word impossible. I use the word improbable.

The universe is thought to be bounded. If we say it is designed then any event that happens inside it may not be ever fully random chance. The universe has limits built right into it. Merely shuffling a deck of cards and claiming this to be a solid argument is not. You really did not address shuffling the deck three times and getting a specified result. Not did you answer if it could be done in 14B years.

If you caught the video it demonstrated that the universe could be entirely made up of sand and the number of grains would not exceed the UPB.

The only way we can study past events is after the fact. From some of those we can make predictions.

The more times a specified event happens the greater the likelihood it is by design.
 
You will note I never use the word impossible. I use the word improbable.

The universe is thought to be bounded. If we say it is designed then any event that happens inside it may not be ever fully random chance. The universe has limits built right into it. Merely shuffling a deck of cards and claiming this to be a solid argument is not. You really did not address shuffling the deck three times and getting a specified result. Not did you answer if it could be done in 14B years.

If you caught the video it demonstrated that the universe could be entirely made up of sand and the number of grains would not exceed the UPB.

The only way we can study past events is after the fact. From some of those we can make predictions.

The more times a specified event happens the greater the likelihood it is by design.
👍 The alternative is to believe that **no matter what happens **it may well be due to chance -. unless a reason to the contrary can be given…

Such are the extreme and desperate measures to which some individuals resort to evade Design. 😉
 
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