You are shifting the goalposts. Your post asked: “Do you accept the Universal Probability Bound?” and just that. Nothing at all about “specified”. The UPB is essentially useless, in that many events break it easily. Assembling the material for a single grain of sand breaks the UPB. How many grains of sand are there in the universe?
You are assuming a random shuffle. If you are not modelling a random process, then you cannot use a model based on random (name removed by moderator)uts. To take a specific example, what is the chance of finding a piece of DNA reading: “AAAAAAAAAA … AAAAA”, with over 100 A’s? A calculation assuming random (name removed by moderator)ut would be wrong, because there are processes involving
Polyadenylation and
retrotransposition that insert long stretches of “AAAAAA…” into DNA. Because the process is not random, you cannot use models, or calculations, based on an assumption of randomness. Hence your frequent recourse to the UPB is not always appropriate. You have to show, scientifically, that a random model is appropriate.
The sequence “AAAAAAAAAAAA … AAAAAAAAAAA” is specified by, “more than one hundred consecutive adenine bases,” and is found in mammalian genomes, including the human genome.
As I said, your reliance on the UPB is misplaced. It has its place, but that place is a lot smaller than you seem to think is is. It only applies within certain models. For other models it is invalid and presents no barrier at all.
rossum