Real Clear Politics Poll Predictions 9/23 (Anybody care to prognosticate?)

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From Real Clear Politics:






I started a different thread because I thought it would be interesting (for historical purposes) for people to post their predictions at this point on how the elections will turn out in 43 days…

(If this thread isn’t locked, I’ll do a similar thread a little closer to the election and one just before the election to compare results)

BTW, on the poll…I know that there are two other options that weren’t listed, but that is a limitation of the CAF software.

ALSO, to stress…don’t tell me what you want to happen, but what you realistically think is going to happen.

Thanks,
 
How did you get a poll with more than seven choices? Special golden ticket?
 
Real Clear Politics average is skewed and not trustworthy because they are using polls which are oversampling democrats. Pew oversampled democrats 19 points in 1 poll. Obama has more favourable ratings with real clear politics because the polls are skewed in his favour
 
_Abyssinia said:
Real Clear Politics average is skewed and not trustworthy because they are using polls which are oversampling democrats. Pew oversampled democrats 19 points in 1 poll. Obama has more favourable ratings with real clear politics because the polls are skewed in his favour
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Well see Abyssinia, Well, see. . . . 🙂

I voted #4.
 
#7 and #10 voters likely didn’t read the OP. Vote on what you believe WILL HAPPEN not what you WANT TO HAPPEN.
 
I voted #3 too! I don’t see any major shift happening in the congress.😉
 
I also voted #3. I’m an Independent, but I haven’t voted for a Democrat at any level since the Democratic platform supported abortion. I can’t imagine a Catholic voting for Obama now.
 
That’s exactly what I’ve been trying to figure out. How do Catholics vote for a Democrat when they promote Three intrinsic evils; Abortion, euthanasia and Gay Marriage.
 
PFTZ said:
That’s exactly what I’ve been trying to figure out. How do Catholics vote for a Democrat when they promote Three intrinsic evils; Abortion, euthanasia and Gay

A lot of us wonder the same thing!:confused:
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I’m going to stick my neck out here and say #6. I don’t much believe the polls, and I don’t think anybody at all is excited about an Obama re-election other than his own servitors.

But the “Formal Ridgerunner Vote” is “fear an Obama re-election. Hire no one. Buy nothing. Borrow nothing. Pay down debt. Brace yourself for an even worse persecution of the Church than anybody imagined.”
 
I voted 7, Romney wins, GOP barely takes Senate majority, House remains GOP.

I’m an optimist. 🙂
 
I think the republicans will keep the House and Romney is on a good, more or less cautious, precise path to victory.

Mainstream media outlets are crowing about the Senate lately, mainly because Tommy Thompson’s numbers have shrank after a hard-fought primary and he now trails in some skewered polls.

I think once he recharges his finances (Karl Rove, I hope you are listening) he’ll be okay.

What has me curious is the lack of polling done in Rhode Island, West Virginia and Maryland. The polls done in the former two are months to a year old even before Barry Hinckley and John Raese declared candidacy and won their party’s nomination.

Those are some possible dark horses for the republicans.

Speaking of the media, why aren’t they reporting that democrat incumbents in both Pennsylvania and New Jersey are now under 50%?

What a huge statement it would be if republicans won any of those seats.

While the republicans may not get as many seats as they had hoped, all they need is a net of three with a Romney win.
 
markomalley said:
From Real Clear Politics:
https://imgur.com/shRJN

https://imgur.com/FbAjG

https://imgur.com/pXx7Y

I started a different thread because I thought it would be interesting (for historical purposes) for people to post their predictions at this point on how the elections will turn out in 43 days…

(If this thread isn’t locked, I’ll do a similar thread a little closer to the election and one just before the election to compare results)

BTW, on the poll…I know that there are two other options that weren’t listed, but that is a limitation of the CAF software.

ALSO, to stress…don’t tell me what you want to happen, but what you realistically think is going to happen.

Thanks,
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Realistically, those polls are inaccurate even for today.

I think we’ve got a great chance to flip Senate seats in NE, WI, MT, ND, VA and even CT.

We’ve also got things running in FL, MI, MO NM and OH.

Sleepers are in MD, RI, HI, MN, NJ

The key seats to hold are IN and MA. ME is going to Angus King who is probably going to caucus with the democrats and Nevada would be tough for the democrats.

I like the republican’s chances in the Senate.

The House will still be under GOP control, and I think the democrats are going to have some more competitive races in districts they think are safer. GOP will probably end up with a slight net loss due to redistricting in New York, Minnesota, Florida, and Illinois.

Romney has been running solidly against Obama for some time now, and given the inaccuracy of the polls, unless Obama can clear 52% consistently in RCP average, he will lose. Romney is running a precision campaign that zeroed in on about 8 states or less and seems to be playing for the electoral win.
 
I did 6. I’m surprised Arkansas and northeastern Wisconsin are solid red; I thought Arkansas had all the bluedog Dems that took votes from Republicans. NE Wisconsin usually is a tossup leaning Repub (heavily Catholic) so maybe the socially conservative-ness of Republicans is having more of an impact than it usually would with abortion and gay marriage being a big deal now.
 
SuperLuigi said:
Realistically, those polls are inaccurate even for today.

I think we’ve got a great chance to flip Senate seats in NE, WI, MT, ND, VA and even CT.

We’ve also got things running in FL, MI, MO NM and OH.

Sleepers are in MD, RI, HI, MN, NJ

The key seats to hold are IN and MA. ME is going to Angus King who is probably going to caucus with the democrats and Nevada would be tough for the democrats.

I like the republican’s chances in the Senate.

The House will still be under GOP control, and I think the democrats are going to have some more competitive races in districts they think are safer. GOP will probably end up with a slight net loss due to redistricting in New York, Minnesota, Florida, and Illinois.

Romney has been running solidly against Obama for some time now, and given the inaccuracy of the polls, unless Obama can clear 52% consistently in RCP average, he will lose. Romney is running a precision campaign that zeroed in on about 8 states or less and seems to be playing for the electoral win.
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They are sound asleep. Not going to be waken up any time soon. 😉
 
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