These are my thoughts on the matter and they are not based on anything scientific. There are Southern Baptist churches in all 50 states and all the Canadian provinces. Outside the South, however, their numbers are so small they are irrelevant. Probably 90% of all Southern Baptists live in the South where their influence is enormous. For instance, the county where I live has 33 Southern Baptist churches and only two Catholic churches. These are the demographics.
The leadership of the SBC recognizes, quite correctly, that one major hindrance to growth outside the South is the name Southern Baptist. Thus, the move to change the name to something more inclusive. Moreover, if there is to be growth it will have to be outside the South because the SBC has pretty well saturated the South already.
The rank and file, on the other hand, are southerners with all the cultural pride (and baggage) of the region. Southerners are proud of their heritage and have a kind of “us against the world” mentality that has its roots in the days of Reconstruction. More than once I have heard Senator Lindsey Graham say, “I am a child of the South.” Can you imagine any senator saying, “I am a child of the North,” or any other region? If the name Southern Baptist Convention is changed, it will be one more piece of cultural identity slipping away from millions of people who think of themselves as “a child of the South.”
I don’t know if the name change will happen, but if it does I predict the loss of members in the South will be nearly as great as the gain throughout the rest of the U.S. and Canada.