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NDfan
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Chip an overall growth rate does account for it. Your example from 1400 to now only shows one snapshot in time. It does not account for where we started and where we are now. It only shows one 609 year period. It’s not reflective of the entire existence of humanity. If we started with 10 people on this earth 100 years ago and now have 1 million then the overall growth rate would be just a hair over 20%. We may have had periods where the rate was 50% and some where the rate was -25% but overall the rate would be around 20%. That point you simply cannot refute.No, an overall growth rate does not account for this. That is the point. An “overall growth rate” does not make accurate predictions that mirror reality, which I demonstrated with my 1400 - 2009 example. I have refuted the notion that ANY growth rate can be logically applied to human history. They have varied so greatly that any effor to prove anything becomes nonsensical. You cannot make it simple because it is not simple.
It doesn’t matter if the rates changed significantly in isolated periods of time. All that serves is to lower or raise the overall number. Looking at isolated periods of growth is only useful if you are trying to understand what external effects were in play that affected that time period.You are quite simply wrong. I demonstrated that growth rates DID change dramatically just between 1400 and 2009. Even if you go back on the timeline by 50 years, the predictions are off by several orders of magnitude. The point is you cannot make any prediction using this method. Period.
If the population is ticking along and has been growing at a rate of say .5% for 1000 years and then suddenly drops to .1% we would immediately question what happened. Perhaps something catastrophic like a plague occurred. But it’s only relevant to that isolated shot of time. If the .1% continued for several years then we would expect the overall rate to be corrected slightly downward. Do you have any statistical training at all? Not implying that in a disrespectful way but this is basic statistics brother.