The most baffling mystery of all

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If only God would fulfill one wish, I would ask him to make hypocrisy painful, so all you hypocrites would scream in your well-deserved pain. I would be happy to wear earplugs.
Our Lord showed his love for us by suffering miserably for our sake. In his suffering, God has given us an answer to why we suffer; a most beautiful one at that. We have an answer. It is just very difficult to accept.
 
Our Lord showed his love for us by suffering miserably for our sake. In his suffering, God has given us an answer to why we suffer; a most beautiful one at that. We have an answer. It is just very difficult to accept.
Well, you just p(name removed by moderator)ointed another baffling mystery. This whole story is nonsense. Let’s take it seriously, however, for the sake of arguments. Here is a short summary of the events (as you believe):
  1. God created us out of love.
  2. Humans disobeyed God’s one and only command.
  3. Therefore the world got “corrupted”, and we see the result with our own eyes. (Of course God cursed his creation, it did not just go bad…)
  4. Much later, God came to us in the form of Jesus to redeem us.
  5. The form of redemption was that humans compounded all their sins by committing an even more grievious, horrible act, in the form of murdering the lamb of God.
  6. This was necessary, so that God could forgive our transgressions.
Now what kind of a nonsense is that? Why couldn’t God just have shrugged off the “sin” of disobedience? Why go through all that charade of being “killed”? What is “redemptive” about compounding all of our minor sins with a much more horrible one? And, to add insult to injury, this “forgiveness” is not unconditional and not universal. As a bumper sticker said: “Christians are not perfect, they are just forgiven”. How arrogant can they be?

Now to answer your post directly. What you say is just mythology. But, by resorting to mythology, you implictly confirm that God does not show his alleged love here and now. If there would be an event (maybe just one event) which could be attributed to God’s helping hand, you would bring it up. However, there is none so you have to resort to John 3:16… Rather revealing. There was an old Greek story about a guy who claimed that he performed a huge jump some time before on the island of Rhodos. He was answered: “Hic Rhodos, hic salta!” - which means, “this is Rhodos, jump here!”. Show me God’s love, here and now.
 
Wait a minute! If i understand you correctly, you may hold to an opinion which itself is at risk of being unreasonable. I cannot take an individual seriously who would maintain that otherwise highly educated and thoughtful people (of which they number in the thousands in the 2000 yr history of the CC) would hold to so easily seen a contradiction and hence are themselves irrational?! Maybe I’m overstating your case here, but if this is the position you hold to, there’s probably no way forward for us in a discussion on this point.
Actually, when it comes to their most basic, most cherished beliefs, people can show incredible resistence to arguments against them. This is not restricted to believers, of course, it is a universal human trait. The belief systems which we have been exposed to (since the earliest childhood) are almost impossible to “dislodge”. I happened to take a few tests in psychology, and my trait of “openness” (being receptive to new ideas) was simply off the chart (100%). And that is extremely rare. Of course, I am just lucky to be able to examine all my beliefs without preconditions, and let the chips fall where they may. (That is how I was able to abandon my childhood religious upbringing.) Most people don’t even want to know about opposing evidence, much less be able to look them without an unbiased attitude.
I know of no Catholic theologian who would abandon this norm for God, so i don’t know who you think you are arguing against here. Voluntarism is left to the Muslims to figure out. Essentialalism is the de facto position in the CC in this respect. God IS infinitely good and this is the basis of his good acts in the world (and our co-participation in those acts of charity and mercy).
Theologians hold God’s “benevolence” as an axiom, which is the basic problem. Since the actual events we observe do not conform with this axiom, they are simply written off as “measurement errors”. In science this is called “cherry picking”.
To this, let me quite myself from earlier in this thread: “I wouldn’t go overboard though, in these respects. They are religious beliefs and so occupy a unique place among the overall corpus of one’s beliefs in that they are bolstered by both theology and philosophy, religious poetry and history. I think that to overemphasize the secular or sacred support in these discussions would be a crucial mistake.” iow, the content of our discussions here in this thread is necessarily theological. There is really no way to have a discussion of theology while trying to avoid “theologically based arguments.” Again, I don’t even know what that would look like-to discuss theological topics in a purely secular way. At the very least, you need to be willing to engage in these topics in the tradition of those atheists I mentioned, which could be called “philosophy of religion” or “philosophical theology.” Otherwise, this is just the spinning of wheels.
Yes, I read it in your previous post. Of course you can always quote the Scriptures (etc) to **qualify **your position, to offer me greater insight into what you believe. However, you should never offer those as arguments. It simply does not work.
OK, two arguments presented here. The argument from natural evil I think all theists grant as a powerful atheistic argument. Some theists maintain it is really the only powerful argument in favor of atheism, but it is so large a topic, I defer to another thread (or more able-bodied Christian philosophers) to address it. Or, do you really mean to engage on this topic here and now?
No, I would agree not to derail this thread.
Second, you’ve mentioned the illegitimacy of the notion of inheriting original sin. I frankly don’t see the problem here. I suppose you’re crying “Not fair!” But, if you’d approach your own existence with a little more humility, I think you’d begin to appreciate that your entitlements are really very few.
I don’t cry “not fair”, though it is a legitimate objection. I cry “no love, and no caring”. But it would be legitimate to ask for more “entitlement”. If God created us, then he assumes direct responsibility for us. I ask for the same care as any child can ask for. As soon as we grow up to the same level of knowledge and power as God has, he can declare us adults, and allow us to take care of ourselves. But not until then.

And what does that have to do with punishing the offspring of the offenders? It is unfair to punish the innocent for the “sins” of their fathers.
OK, this would be an example of your need to go a little deeper. Tertullian’s remarks above remind me somewhat of Hans Urs von Balthasar’s theology of the Incarnation. It is basically the central dogma of Christianity, and it is certainly the central mystery–that the Son became man. What you’ve done here is to basically take that mystery articulated by Tertullian in a way that seems almost poetical and alleged that it is against reason. As if by merely quoting him, that’s done all the arguing for you.
The quote is there. Tertullian declares that if something is outrageously absurd, then it must be true. That is faith, not reason.
Yes, I know that anti theistic individuals like to make this point, but epistemically it doesn’t place you in a better position, unless you’d care to argue how. It’s a distinction that, at least regarding the historical claims of Christianity, doesn’t make a difference. Epistemically, you’re in the same boat.
This is the point where I start to lose patience. No, we are not in the same boat - not by a long shot. Now I will go into a bit more detail. The results of science are being verified by you and me and everyone else millions of times a day. The applications of science assure that. Every time when you take a medication, you verify (unknowingly and implictly) that the experiments were correct. Every time you turn on your TV, or fire up the computer, you verify all those basic experiments that were carried out. You don’t have to go into the labs, and personally do those experiments. You enjoy the real world applications of physics, chemistry, biology, etc… You are the tester, even if you are not aware of it. (And when there are errors, which there are, then we suffer the consequences, as seen in the horrible events of Thalidomide).

Contrast that to the claims of religion, for example the efficacy of prayer. Try to depend on Jesus’ words: “whatever you ask in my name, I will fulfill it, because I will go the Father”. Does it “work”? Obviously not. Does it shake your faith? Obviously not. So what do you do? Rationalize. You will say, that Jesus did not really mean “all” when he said “all”. And that is shameless rationalization.

No, we are not in the same boat.
Again, you’ve countered on an issue which is better to just defer to another thread or to theists whose writings have already amply addressed these points (eg, G Habermas & W L Craig).
Fine.
 
No, we are not in the same boat - not by a long shot. Now I will go into a bit more detail. The results of science are being verified by you and me and everyone else millions of times a day. The applications of science assure that. Every time when you take a medication, you verify (unknowingly and implictly) that the experiments were correct.
What do you mean by “verified”? There’s this implicitly naive and false assumption in these threads among some of you that repeated “verifications” somehow raise the probability of a general hypothesis being true. This is false. No matter how many times an experiment is repeated, these number of trials cannot raise the probability of a hypothesis being true above 50%. To think otherwise is to perform the reverse of the Gambler’s Fallacy. There is no more reason to think a hypothesis is true than false no matter how many times you repeat an experiment whose results come out “correct.”
 
What do you mean by “verified”? There’s this implicitly naive and false assumption in these threads among some of you that repeated “verifications” somehow raise the probability of a general hypothesis being true. This is false. No matter how many times an experiment is repeated, these number of trials cannot raise the probability of a hypothesis being true above 50%. To think otherwise is to perform the reverse of the Gambler’s Fallacy. There is no more reason to think a hypothesis is true than false no matter how many times you repeat an experiment whose results come out “correct.”
Well, you are obviously not a mathematician to say something this ridiculous. And also have no idea what is the significance of having millions of successful experiments in verifying a hypothesis. I once heard before that the probability of hitting a jackpot on the Powerball is 50%, because it either happens or it does not. The person who offered it was a “philosopher”. Well, now I heard it again. Amazing. Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is?
 
What do you mean by “verified”? There’s this implicitly naive and false assumption in these threads among some of you that repeated “verifications” somehow raise the probability of a general hypothesis being true. This is false. No matter how many times an experiment is repeated, these number of trials cannot raise the probability of a hypothesis being true above 50%. To think otherwise is to perform the reverse of the Gambler’s Fallacy. There is no more reason to think a hypothesis is true than false no matter how many times you repeat an experiment whose results come out “correct.”
It is your argument that is ridiculous! You are assuming that Syntax’s reasoning** implies **that **all **hypotheses have a probability of 50% “because it either happens or it does not”. How on earth do you reach that conclusion?
 
It is your argument that is ridiculous! You are assuming that Syntax’s reasoning** implies **that **all **hypotheses have a probability of 50% “because it either happens or it does not”. How on earth do you reach that conclusion?
I read what he said. You can do the same. Which part of “50%” don’t you understand? Which part of “general hypothesis” don’t you understand? These are not too difficult to comprehend…
 
Well, you are obviously not a mathematician to say something this ridiculous. And also have no idea what is the significance of having millions of successful experiments in verifying a hypothesis. I once heard before that the probability of hitting a jackpot on the Powerball is 50%, because it either happens or it does not. The person who offered it was a “philosopher”. Well, now I heard it again. Amazing. Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is?
Either you didn’t understand what the other philosopher was saying, or one of you made the mistake of confusing together classical probability, empirical probabilities (frequencies), logical probabilities, and Bayes’ theorem.

Logicians work with probability no less than mathematicians do. And the problem I mentioned has less to do with probability and more to do with the **epistemology of confirmation **anyway. So I suggest before you jump to conclusions that you actually listen to what I have to say instead of trying to strawman my argument.

Suppose I have a coin that you have by examination and test convinced yourself is quite normal. I propose to flip it ten times. I conjecture (for whatever reason) that it will land heads all ten times. You express doubts. I proceed to “confirm” the hypothesis. I flip the coin once. It lands heads. Is this evidence that my hypothesis is correct? Hardly.

So I continue flipping the coin and it turns up with nine straight heads. Given the opening assumption that we are dealing with a fair coin, the probability of getting all ten heads (the probability that my hypothesis is true) is now, after examination of 90% of the total population to which the hypothesis applies, still exactly 0.5.

So if we are guided by probability considerations** alone**, the likelihood of all ten tosses being heads is now, after nine favorable trials, totally undetermined. After nine favorable trials it is no more reasonable to believe the hypothesis than its denial. In what sense, then, can we have said to be accumulating evidence during the first nine trials that all would be heads? In what sense have we been “confirming” the hypothesis? It would appear that the probability of my conjecture’s being true never exceeds .5 until we have exhaustively examined the entire population of coin tosses and found them all favorable. But we have not done this; we have only examined 90% of the trials.

The initial probability that all ten tosses would be heads was on the order of .002. After nine favorable trials it is .5. In *this *sense I have increased the probability that my hypothesis is true; that is, I have raised its probability from .002 to .5. But the importanit point to notice, however, is that this sequence of trials did *not *alter the probability that the tenth trial would be heads whatsoever. The probability that the unexamind instance would be favorable remains exactly what it was before I began flipping the coin. It was originally .5 and it is now, after nine favorable trials, still .5.
 
It pops up every time God’s supposed benevolence is discussed. The atheists bring up some questions about it, and the believers will start a barrage of their rationalizations. A few examples: God outsources his helping hand to humans, who are mostly unequipped to handle the problem or God does not want to reveal his existence, because such revelation would make it harder not to believe in him, or maybe why should God “pamper” us? Lots of other nonsensical answers. None are rational, of course.

My amazement stems from their utmost reluctance to admit: “they believe in God’s benevolence on blind faith, they need no evidence for it”. Why do they try so desperately create a rational basis for their belief? After all Jesus himself endorses blind faith when he says: “blessed are the ones who have not seen, yet believe”. This is the quintessential blind faith. Are they somehow secretly “ashamed” of their blind faith? Why would they shun Jesus’s words? Do they secretly believe that (blind) faith is somehow “lower” than cold, hard reason?

They should have their answer ready, wearing it proudly as a badge of honor: “we have our (blind) faith, we believe even in the face of evidence to the contrary - as Jesus endorsed”. Personally, I would find such an answer worthy of respect. Not intellectual respect, mind you, but respect for their honesty nonetheless. It would be much more praiseworthy to have your belief, and stick to it, than coming up with feeble rationalizations, which would not convince a child. Just say: “Jesus said it, I believe it, that is the end of it”. This advice comes free of charge. Use it.
I’m not quite sure Jesus was referring to blind faith when he made the statement “blessed are the ones who have not seen, yet believe”. IMO He was referring to believing what you have been told without literally seeing it.

You could be told the moon is surrounded by meatballs and believe or not believe it. I think Jesus was referring to the unanimous proclamation by those that were present the week before and saw Him. Thomas didn’t believe all of them. We are expected to believe all of them even if Thomas never saw Jesus.
 
Why are you discussing this in CAF? Don’t you have something better to do with God’s gifts? Do you know God? Is this helping you understand Him better or love Him more?
 
Well, you just p(name removed by moderator)ointed another baffling mystery. This whole story is nonsense. Let’s take it seriously, however, for the sake of arguments. Here is a short summary of the events (as you believe):
  1. God created us out of love.
  2. Humans disobeyed God’s one and only command.
  3. Therefore the world got “corrupted”, and we see the result with our own eyes. (Of course God cursed his creation, it did not just go bad…)
  4. Much later, God came to us in the form of Jesus to redeem us.
  5. The form of redemption was that humans compounded all their sins by committing an even more grievious, horrible act, in the form of murdering the lamb of God.
  6. This was necessary, so that God could forgive our transgressions.
It is a mystery. But here’s another: Why does the world work the way it does? It’s a mystery.

You should not dismiss something simply because you don’t understand it. The first step to understanding is humility.You have to admit that you don’t understand it instead of dismissing a truth because you don’t.
Now what kind of a nonsense is that? Why couldn’t God just have shrugged off the “sin” of disobedience? Why go through all that charade of being “killed”? What is “redemptive” about compounding all of our minor sins with a much more horrible one? And, to add insult to injury, this “forgiveness” is not unconditional and not universal. As a bumper sticker said: “Christians are not perfect, they are just forgiven”. How arrogant can they be?
God does not “shrug” off *any *sin because he is *infinitely *good. Even the most venial of sins is a severe offense against His Majesty.

Forgiveness is conditional in the sense that you must be willing to receive it in order to get it (the Lord has patience however). Forgiveness is universal in the sense that everyone can receive it if they want.
Now to answer your post directly. What you say is just mythology. But, by resorting to mythology, you implictly confirm that God does not show his alleged love here and now. If there would be an event (maybe just one event) which could be attributed to God’s helping hand, you would bring it up. However, there is none so you have to resort to John 3:16… Rather revealing. There was an old Greek story about a guy who claimed that he performed a huge jump some time before on the island of Rhodos. He was answered: “Hic Rhodos, hic salta!” - which means, “this is Rhodos, jump here!”. Show me God’s love, here and now.
That you say that what I say is “just mythology” is just mythology. You easily dismiss the Crucifixion as “mythology”. But I ask, where is your proof?

I can assure you that your very existence is proof of the love of God. Now where is your proof that God does not love? (The point here is that my belief is based on faith, while yours is based on “proof”. I’m not the one who really needs to provide the proof, you are.)
 
Actually, when it comes to their most basic, most cherished beliefs, people can show incredible resistence to arguments against them. This is not restricted to believers, of course, it is a universal human trait. The belief systems which we have been exposed to (since the earliest childhood) are almost impossible to “dislodge”. I happened to take a few tests in psychology, and my trait of “openness” (being receptive to new ideas) was simply off the chart (100%). And that is extremely rare. Of course, I am just lucky to be able to examine all my beliefs without preconditions, and let the chips fall where they may. (That is how I was able to abandon my childhood religious upbringing.) Most people don’t even want to know about opposing evidence, much less be able to look them without an unbiased attitude.
Congratulations! Lucky you. 😉 I can agree with your first line above and yet maintain that I think you oversimplify the situation here. The world just isn’t so easily boxed up and tidy. Yes, most people do show resilience in maintaining themselves in their own beliefs, despite arguments to the contrary. (You and I are likely doing a bit of that now in this thread.) However, just as you can point to yourself as an example of someone who didn’t just stick with childhood beliefs, so can innumerable others. For myself, I was raised in an irreligious, New Agey home, became Pentecostal Christian in high school, and then became Catholic in 2004 immediately after graduating from an Evangelical seminary. Many others, it is reasonable to believe, have led similarly complex lives to you and me, with regard to religious matters. On the other hand, some will maintain themselves in their childhood beliefs for their entire lives, and this isn’t only true of Christians. Reading the intro to Michael Martin’s book, Atheism: a Philosophical Justification, I was surprised to learn that Martin has pretty much been an atheist since a very young age, mostly due to the influence of an older family member on Martin (was it an uncle or grandfather?) who was himself atheistic. You are flatly oversimplifying here.
Theologians hold God’s “benevolence” as an axiom, which is the basic problem. Since the actual events we observe do not conform with this axiom, they are simply written off as “measurement errors”. In science this is called “cherry picking”.
Some theologians may do this. I admit I’m not that widely read in contemporary theology. But, this doesn’t change the fact that quite a few theologians throughout the Church’s history have actually offered reasons for the belief that God is good (just like you could argue for his being wise, powerful, knowledgeable, etc.). It is not the case, iow, that all theologians merely postulate God’s goodness from the outset.
Yes, I read it in your previous post. Of course you can always quote the Scriptures (etc) to **qualify **your position, to offer me greater insight into what you believe. However, you should never offer those as arguments. It simply does not work.
I don’t recall very much scripture quoting in our exchanges here. Are you referring to the one quote from St Paul? If so, then I hope you’ll recall that the quote was offered in the same way that I could have quoted any Catholic theologian to you. But, if it makes you feel better for me to quote a theologian, like Avery Dulles, I’m happy to supplant the biblical authors with later writers arguing the exact same point.

But, the more important point here is that you cannot engage in theological discussions (which you are presently doing) and expect to avoid “theologically based arguments.”
I don’t cry “not fair”, though it is a legitimate objection. I cry “no love, and no caring”. But it would be legitimate to ask for more “entitlement”. If God created us, then he assumes direct responsibility for us. I ask for the same care as any child can ask for. As soon as we grow up to the same level of knowledge and power as God has, he can declare us adults, and allow us to take care of ourselves. But not until then.
I’m very sorry that you have not felt any love or caring and that it has seemed to you as if the universe is ambivalent towards you. But, you would have to admit that your experience here is not a universal one. Things often do work out in our favor; not always but often enough that a phrase like “Thank God” or “Thank goodness” just does fall from the lips of many in not a few occasions. Tragedy is not common. Tragedy averted is much more universally our common experience. It is simply a fact that many people have a sense of being ‘watched over.’
And what does that have to do with punishing the offspring of the offenders? It is unfair to punish the innocent for the “sins” of their fathers.
Yes it is unfair. Crack-babies are unfair. Infants suffering from fetal alcohol syndrome is a reality that is profoundly unfair. Wealthy parents blowing a fortune in gambling and other foolish financial decisions such that their children are left with nothing is incredibly unfair. And your point is…?
This is the point where I start to lose patience. No, we are not in the same boat - not by a long shot. Now I will go into a bit more detail…
I would like to suggest that we stay a bit more on course. You made some interesting points I think, but they were made while sidestepping altogether my claim of testimonially grounded beliefs forming the vast majority of one’s beliefs in science or historical matters.
 
I would like to suggest that we stay a bit more on course. You made some interesting points I think, but they were made while sidestepping altogether my claim of testimonially grounded beliefs forming the vast majority of one’s beliefs in science or historical matters.
I hope you don’t mind, but I must confess that this is what many of us have been trying to tell. It’s simply the truth. Even Geometry, as true as it is, is based on unprovable truths. I will repeat what I have said before: Just because something can’t be proven, doesn’t mean it cannot be true. We use our reason to decide what is most likely true and what is most likely not. In order for the philosophy of empiricism to stand, this very important truth must be evaded.
 
I hope you don’t mind, but I must confess that this is what many of us have been trying to tell. It’s simply the truth. Even Geometry, as true as it is, is based on unprovable truths. I will repeat what I have said before: Just because something can’t be proven, doesn’t mean it cannot be true. We use our reason to decide what is most likely true and what is most likely not. In order for the philosophy of empiricism to stand, this very important truth must be evaded.
i believe the words we are looking for is cognitive dissonance.

skepdic.com/cognitivedissonance.html
Cognitive dissonance is a theory of human motivation that asserts that it is psychologically uncomfortable to hold contradictory cognitions. The theory is that dissonance, being unpleasant, motivates a person to change his cognition, attitude, or behavior
 
tonyrey;6364707:
R Daneel;6364637:
Syntax;6364605:
What do you mean by “verified”? There’s this implicitly naive and false assumption in these threads among some of you that repeated “verifications” somehow raise the probability of a general hypothesis being true. This is false. No matter how many times an experiment is repeated, these number of trials cannot raise the probability of a hypothesis being true above 50%. To think otherwise is to perform the reverse of the Gambler’s Fallacy. There is no more reason to think a hypothesis is true
than false no matter how many times you repeat an experiment whose results come out “correct.”

Well, you are obviously not a mathematician to say something this ridiculous. And also have no idea what is the significance of having millions of successful experiments in verifying a hypothesis. I once heard before that the probability of hitting a jackpot on the Powerball is 50%, because it either happens or it does not. The person who offered it was a “philosopher”. Well, now I heard it again. Amazing. Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is?

It is your argument that is ridiculous! You are assuming that Syntax’s reasoning** implies **that **all **hypotheses have a probability of 50% “because it either happens or it does not”. How on earth do you reach that conclusion?I read what he said. You can do the same. Which part of “50%” don’t you understand? Which part of “general hypothesis” don’t you understand? These are not too difficult to comprehend…
What part of “general” do you not understand?

“I have a 1/million chance of winning the next PowerBall” is not a general hypothesis about many different events, but a particular hypothesis about one, and only one, event, namely, winning the jackpot.

“All bodies near the earth accelerate at 9.8 m/ss” is a general hypothesis about many, if not innumerable numbers of events, namely, of “all” bodies falling to the earth.

You assumed I was talking about the former kind of hypotheis about one event. I was clear in my post that I was talking about the latter general kind of hypothesis which is about all events given a certain set of initial conditions, and for which can be tested innumerable numbers of times.

So Tonyrey was right: you were “generalizing” what I said to the former kinds of hypotheses.
 
Either you didn’t understand what the other philosopher was saying, or one of you made the mistake of confusing together classical probability, empirical probabilities (frequencies), logical probabilities, and Bayes’ theorem.

Logicians work with probability no less than mathematicians do. And the problem I mentioned has less to do with probability and more to do with the **epistemology of confirmation **anyway. So I suggest before you jump to conclusions that you actually listen to what I have to say instead of trying to strawman my argument.

Suppose I have a coin that you have by examination and test convinced yourself is quite normal. I propose to flip it ten times. I conjecture (for whatever reason) that it will land heads all ten times. You express doubts. I proceed to “confirm” the hypothesis. I flip the coin once. It lands heads. Is this evidence that my hypothesis is correct? Hardly.

So I continue flipping the coin and it turns up with nine straight heads. Given the opening assumption that we are dealing with a fair coin, the probability of getting all ten heads (the probability that my hypothesis is true) is now, after examination of 90% of the total population to which the hypothesis applies, still exactly 0.5.

So if we are guided by probability considerations** alone**, the likelihood of all ten tosses being heads is now, after nine favorable trials, totally undetermined. After nine favorable trials it is no more reasonable to believe the hypothesis than its denial. In what sense, then, can we have said to be accumulating evidence during the first nine trials that all would be heads? In what sense have we been “confirming” the hypothesis? It would appear that the probability of my conjecture’s being true never exceeds .5 until we have exhaustively examined the entire population of coin tosses and found them all favorable. But we have not done this; we have only examined 90% of the trials.

The initial probability that all ten tosses would be heads was on the order of .002. After nine favorable trials it is .5. In *this *sense I have increased the probability that my hypothesis is true; that is, I have raised its probability from .002 to .5. But the importanit point to notice, however, is that this sequence of trials did *not *alter the probability that the tenth trial would be heads whatsoever. The probability that the unexamind instance would be favorable remains exactly what it was before I began flipping the coin. It was originally .5 and it is now, after nine favorable trials, still .5.
Very good explanation!
 
I hope you don’t mind, but I must confess that this is what many of us have been trying to tell. It’s simply the truth. Even Geometry, as true as it is, is based on unprovable truths. I will repeat what I have said before: Just because something can’t be proven, doesn’t mean it cannot be true. We use our reason to decide what is most likely true and what is most likely not. In order for the philosophy of empiricism to stand, this very important truth must be evaded.
Hi there,

Yes, I think I follow the general thrust of your points here. I agree that it can be frustrating in these contexts. What I’m trying to get at with R Daneel are the very basic epistemological sources we have for receiving knowledge about the world. Everyone, especially fans of science, loves to spend hours on end talking about perception (with the 5 senses) as being our common way of receiving knowledge about the world. And whereas I would agree that perception is probably the most basic way of connecting the mind with the world outside of it, we still tend to downplay the tremendous role that testimony plays in being both a source and a “ground” of a huge amount of our knowledge, including and especially our knowledge of scientific matters.

After all, we didn’t perform the experiments, nor did we perceive them while they were being performed. Nor even did we reason on the basis of that which was perceived in the experiment in order to ‘extend’ our knowledge. Usually, we just read a reporting of the experiments of science, which is another way of saying that we receive the information through testimony, just like we receive our knowledge of historical things.
 
Continued…

Let it be clear we are talking confirmation, not probability, since what scientists actually do is construct a 2nd hypothesis about the asymmetry of the coin after so many unlikely repeated occurences of the same result have occurred, such as the occurence of nine straight heads after nine flips of the coin.

So supposing the coin comes up heads nine out of ten flips, we take this empirically observed frequency and construct a new a hypothesis from which to make predictions about the probability that the next flip of the coin turning out heads. So we say something like, “since the ratio of favorable cases to all possible cases has so far been on the order 1, since nine out of nine flips came out heads, then it is much more likely that the next flip will turn out heads rather than not.”

But this rests on the assumption that unexamined future cases will resemble past examined cases in any relevent respect for which there is no empirical evidence whatsoever. So it is the assumption that Nature is governed by a series of general laws, **together with **observable frequencies, that the unexamined future cases are given a probability assignment of the next event approaching 1.

The point to notice, here, is that “confirmation” does not proceed by raising the probability that a given hypothesis is true from one experiment to the next because, as we have seen, this probability is not affected by each experiment or piece of evidence that is encountered. To think otherwise is to be committing the reverse of the Gambler’s Fallacy. No. Confirmation, is raising the probability that the next unexamined case will be like the set of all past examined cases. And this task confirmation alone cannot do without an implicit assumption about natural laws from which predictions about the likelihood of future events, or test scenarious, can be deduced.

But now we’ve arrived at the problem of Induction, namely, the question of whether or not inferences from past to future cases can said to be in any fair sense reliable or justified inferences at all.
 
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