This is the Paris Agreement

[lao_tzu]

Dear friends and neighbors,

In the wake of President Trump’s decision to initiate an American pull-out from the Paris Agreement, it is my hope that a clearer understanding of the accord will contribute to a more thoughtful environment for discussion.

Here is the Paris Agreement, a key constituent of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, often referenced as UNFCCC.

The Paris Agreement, in essence, entails the one-two combination of Nationally Determined Contributions and regular reporting on these NDCs, with the first global stocktake scheduled five years out from the agreement, which took force on November 4, 2016 after passing its threshold on October 5, 2016. Notably, this first stocktake will occur after the end of President Trump’s first term. Of further note, under the Paris accord, America’s NDC is subject to unilateral modification.

With this in mind, it is unclear what the Trump administration envisions as a withdrawal from the agreement, or how that withdrawal would differ from a mere modification of America’s NDC.

As ever, Jesse

 

[lao_tzu]

This is the United States first NDC Submission.

The topline goal of the US NDC is given as follows.

Intended nationally determined contribution

The United States intends to achieve an economy-wide target of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 26%-28% below its 2005 level in 2025 and to make best efforts to reduce its emissions by 28%.

 

[lao_tzu]

Notably, this first stocktake will occur after the end of President Trump’s first term.

What to Expect as U.S. Leaves Paris Climate Accord

In 2015, the Obama administration vowed to cut greenhouse gas emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 as part of the Paris deal. A recent analysis by the Rhodium Group estimated that, under Mr. Trump’s policies, United States emissions will now most likely fall just 15 to 19 percent below 2005 levels by 2025.

Also …

The Trump administration plans to invoke the accord’s formal withdrawal mechanism, a winding legal process that will take four years to complete and would lead to an official exit on Nov. 4, 2020, the day after the next presidential election. A future administration could, if it chose, rejoin.

The formal withdrawal process is spelled out in the penultimate Article 28 of the agreement

(c/p from NYTimes document cloud above, formatted to match for bulletin board.)

Article 28

1. 
   *]At any time after three years from the date on which this Agreement has entered into force for a Party, that Party may withdraw from this Agreement by giving written notification to the Depositary.
   *]Any such withdrawal shall take effect upon expiry of one year from the date of receipt by the Depositary of the notification of withdrawal, or on such later date as may be specified in the notification of withdrawal.
   *]Any Party that withdraws from the Convention shall be considered as also having withdrawn from this Agreement.
   
   To wit, in order to withdraw from the agreement, a written notification can be submitted no earlier than November 4, 2019, and can take effect no earlier than November 4, 2020.

 

[PJH_74]

This furthers the points I tried to make in the other thread on the Paris Accord. The effect of Paris is already baked into the system so to say. International companies will have large incentives to keep their business practices and products in line with the Paris Accord. There is too much moment here to allow Trump to achieve anything truly effective. This is a play to the base.