I saw Richard Grenell comment on Twitter that this poll has a +10 Democratic sample over Republicans.Further analysis of the Wash Post/ABC News poll:
washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-after-conventions-clinton-leads-trump-by-8-points/2016/08/06/517999c0-5b33-11e6-9aee-8075993d73a2_story.html
Are we starting to talk UnSkewed Polls again? You know how that turned out…I saw Richard Grenell comment on Twitter that this poll has a +10 Democratic sample over Republicans.
Why? Why? Why? Their sample of Democrats is almost double than what the actual Democratic turnout advantage was in 2012, at +6 I believe.
I’m taking that poll with a pinch of salt.
You’re taking the Washington Post/ABC poll with a grain of salt, but seem to think highly of the LA Times poll even though it has been an outlier for weeks and has generally not been supported by other polls.I’m taking that poll with a pinch of salt.
Nate Silver comments on survey data among White Republicans and White Democrats. This is only regarding towards Black people, not other people, but it’s relevant:Also according to a Republican intellectual the Republican Party alas has become the Party of White Nationalism:
A Republican intellectual explains why the Republican Party is going to die
About the author (from Wiki):
Roy has advised three Republican Party presidential candidates. He was a health care policy advisor to Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign and was the senior advisor to Rick Perry’s 2016 campaign. After Rick Perry withdrew from the race, Roy joined the 2016 presidential campaign of Marco Rubio as a policy advisor.
Do you think the Democratic turnout in 2016 will be four points higher than it was 2012?Are we starting to talk UnSkewed Polls again? You know how that turned out…
I don’t think I ever commented on here that I think that way about the poll LA Times poll. I posted the poll, like I’ve posted polls in the past that show Trump in the lead, or Clinton in the lead. I don’t know about the samples in the LA Times poll.You’re taking the Washington Post/ABC poll with a grain of salt, but seem to think highly of the LA Times poll even though it has been an outlier for weeks and has generally not been supported by other polls.
I think it would be great fun if every Trump supporter interviewed by pollsters would simply state, “You know I am seriously thinking about voting for Hillary,” suddenly giving her a 100% favorability rating (leaving everyone scratching their heads) and then turn out in droves come election time to vote for Trump.I don’t think I ever commented on here that I think that way about the poll LA Times poll. I posted the poll, like I’ve posted polls in the past that show Trump in the lead, or Clinton in the lead. I don’t know about the samples in the LA Times poll.
If any poll has a Democratic advantage percentage over Republicans that is nearly double what the actual turnout advantage percentage was for Democrats over Republicans in 2012, I am probably going to be skeptical.
Most polls are oversampling Dems right now. Dem enthusiasm is up in the wake of their convention, so Dems are more willing to answer pollster questions, leading to oversampling. Polls try to adjust for that skew, but the larger the oversample the harder it is to correct. We won’t really know if the current polls are accurate for a couple weeks as things settle in. I think its fair to say that Hillary is leading, but its hard to judge the depth of her lead right now (at least IMHO).I saw Richard Grenell comment on Twitter that this poll has a +10 Democratic sample over Republicans.
Why? Why? Why? Their sample of Democrats is almost double than what the actual Democratic turnout advantage was in 2012, at +6 I believe.
I’m taking that poll with a pinch of salt.
Have to see as things “settle”.Most polls are oversampling Dems right now. Dem enthusiasm is up in the wake of their convention, so Dems are more willing to answer pollster questions, leading to oversampling. Polls try to adjust for that skew, but the larger the oversample the harder it is to correct. We won’t really know if the current polls are accurate for a couple weeks as things settle in. I think its fair to say that Hillary is leading, but its hard to judge the depth of her lead right now (at least IMHO).
hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-dinesh-dsouzas-hillarys-915031My husband and I took the kids to the movies last weekend at prime time in a very busy location. On his way back from getting popcorn, he popped into the theatre for Hillary’s America to see who had actually purchased tickets for it. There were six people in total and the film had already started: all white men with very white hair.
The George P. Bush who is the Commissioner of the Texas General Land Office? Should his opinion carry much weight with GOP voters?George P. Bush tells GOP to support Trump: report
thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/290696-george-p-bush-tells-gop-to-support-trump
.
My husband and I took the kids to the movies last weekend at prime time in a very busy location. On his way back from getting popcorn, he popped into the theatre for Hillary’s America to see who had actually purchased tickets for it. There were six people in total and the film had already started: all white men with very white hair.
Nah. It suffices to point out that millions and billions of dollars are forked out to watch “entertaining” movies, but relatively paltry amounts for anything educational. Audiences for anything which prompts thinking just plummet.Let me guess - Peter will say “bandwagon fallacy”.
George P. Bush is my favorite Bush. He is also the most conservative and very likeable.The George P. Bush who is the Commissioner of the Texas General Land Office? Should his opinion carry much weight with GOP voters?
In other news, it seems that George P will be spending thanksgiving with his wife’s side of the family this year. (I’m kidding)George P. Bush tells GOP to support Trump: report
thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/290696-george-p-bush-tells-gop-to-support-trump
.
This is a member of the Bush family, Jeb Bush’s son… this is a big deal.The George P. Bush who is the Commissioner of the Texas General Land Office? Should his opinion carry much weight with GOP voters?
I was intrigued by George P Bush, because I never heard of him, and I tried to Google his standings on conservative issues, but I couldn’t find any sources. Can you please show me why he’s the most conservative of all the Bushes?George P. Bush is my favorite Bush. He is also the most conservative and very likeable.
This election puts him in a difficult spot, but I think his opinion does carry weight among
conservative voters.
But as you know, this is Jeb Bush’s son… this is a big deal.The George P. Bush who is the Commissioner of the Texas General Land Office? Should his opinion carry much weight with GOP voters?
Perhaps Gandalf and a few friends were holding a private viewing?There were six people in total and the film had already started: all white men with very white hair.