Trump Thread Two

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Correction, “favourability ratings” from tweet posted in above post, up 16 points for Melania Trump.
 
“Political analyst Nate Silver’s latest forecast has Republican nominee Donald Trump with a 15 percentage point-greater chance of beating presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton if the election were held today, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Silver’s “now-cast,” updated with fresh surveys on Monday, shows Trump’s current likelihood of winning at 57.5 percent, compared with Clinton’s 42.5 percent. In the 11 battleground states, Colorado, Virginia and Michigan would go to Clinton, while Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa would go to Trump.”

Read more: politico.com/story/2016/07/fivethirtyeight-trump-winning-226114#ixzz4FQhkhO6m
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

“The model predicts that Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson will garner just 0.4 Electoral College votes despite winning 8.2 percent of the popular vote.
Clinton still leads in 538’s polls-plus model, Silver notes, as it accounts for any post-convention bounces that are likely to fade.
“It’s not Trump’s convention bounce per se that should worry Dems. That’s pretty normal. It’s how it became so close to begin with,” Silver tweeted. “Trump trailed by around 3 points in our forecasts a week ago. Typical convention bounce is 4 points. So you end up at Trump +1 or so.”
“Don’t think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It’s a close election right now,” he warned last week.”

Read more: politico.com/story/2016/07/fivethirtyeight-trump-winning-226114#ixzz4FQiK4bUo
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
 
estesbob said:
I am at a loss as to how a man who worked for “Think Progress” and Andrew Sullivan can be a “Republican intellectual”
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From Wiki:

Roy has advised three losing Republican Party presidential candidates. He was a health care policy advisor to Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign and was the senior advisor to Rick Perry’s 2016 campaign. After Rick Perry withdrew from the race, Roy joined the 2016 presidential campaign of Marco Rubio as a policy advisor.

He worked for Think Progress? Think Progress slammed his policy proposals.
 
NATE SILVER: Donald Trump would most likely win the election if it were held today

If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.

That’s what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.

In his “Now-cast” election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the president

businessinsider.com/nate-silver-donald-trump-polls-2016-7
 
estesbob said:
NATE SILVER: Donald Trump would most likely win the election if it were held today

If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.

That’s what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.

In his “Now-cast” election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the president

businessinsider.com/nate-silver-donald-trump-polls-2016-7
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It’s just a normal convention bounce, and a modest one:
The Republican convention has generated a modest increase so far in Donald Trump’s poll standing, moving the New York businessman back into a lead over Hillary Clinton.
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Through Sunday, the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” tracking poll of the race shows Trump gaining about three percentage points in the aftermath of the convention. That would be roughly in line with the convention bounces enjoyed by Democratic and Republican nominees in the past three election cycles.
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latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-convention-bounce-20160725-snap-htmlstory.html
 
estesbob said:
NATE SILVER: Donald Trump would most likely win the election if it were held today

If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.

That’s what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.

In his “Now-cast” election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the president

businessinsider.com/nate-silver-donald-trump-polls-2016-7
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News flash: the election is in November. The polls will jump around quite a bit between now and then.
 
Why the Russian government would try to interfere with the US election to Trump’s favor is is genuinely alarming.
…just one week after Donald’s alarming comments about NATO and his advisers having successfully weakened the Republican Party’s platform with respect to Ukraine, reneging on a promise to provide aid to the Ukrainians in their struggle against Russian aggression.
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There have long been questions about some of Donald’s advisers’ ties to foreign governments. In particular, his campaign co-chair Paul Manafort has built a career specializing in working for arms dealers, dictators, and foreign oligarchs. He was “for many years on the payroll of the Putin-backed former president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych.”
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In April, Franklin Foer wrote an extensive profile of Manafort in which Foer details Manafor’s decades-long relationship with Trump, which has spanned the former’s career of advising tyrants around the globe. In the piece, he recalls the time that Manafort “snookered” John McCain into aiding him in “undermining American policy.”

Manafort’s business partner, lobbyist Rick Davis, was one of McCain’s top advisers. Manafort’s and Davis’ work in Ukraine was so concerning that, in 2008, a staffer on the National Security Council called McCain to ask him to help dial back Manafort and Davis, because, “by promoting enemies of the Orange Revolution, they were undermining American policy.” But McCain had already been taken in by them.
That year, the pair had consulted on behalf of pro-independence forces in the tiny principality of Montenegro, which wanted to exit Serbia and become its own sovereign republic. On the surface, this sounded noble enough, so noble that McCain called Montenegro’s independence the “greatest European democracy project since the end of the Cold War.”
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A report in the Nation, however, showed that the Montenegrin campaign wasn’t remotely what McCain described. The independence initiative was championed by a fantastically wealthy Russian mogul called Oleg Deripaska. Deripaska had parochial reasons for promoting independence. He had just purchased Montenegro’s aluminum industry and intended to buy broader swaths of its economy. But he was also doing the bidding of Vladimir Putin, on whose good graces the fate of all Russian business ultimately hangs. The Nation quoted Deripaska boasting that “the Kremlin wanted an area of influence in the Mediterranean.”
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Manafort and Davis, who was running McCain’s campaign at the time, manipulated the Republican nominee to lend his support, under the auspices of “Yeah, freedom!” to a geopolitical event designed to enrich Putin and his allies.

And now, two presidential cycles later, Manafort is running Trump’s campaign. Trump is much less politically savvy than McCain, so if McCain could be that easily exploited, Manafort is able to manipulate Trump effortlessly.

Moreover, McCain was not deeply indebted to Russian money-lenders with ties to Putin. As TPM details, “Trump appears to have a deep financial dependence on Russian money from persons close to Putin. …There is also something between a non-trivial and a substantial amount of evidence suggesting Putin-backed financial support for Trump or a non-tacit alliance between the two men.”

That is the result of Trump’s multiple business failures and bankruptcies. Despite relentlessly boasting about his business acumen, which is singularly cited as his qualification for the presidency, he is, in fact, not regarded as skilled and competent by US banks, who refuse to lend to him. So now he must depend on foreign cash to fund his business ventures.

And if Donald Trump is beholden to Putin and his allies, it should alarm the ever-loving bejesus of all of us that Russian government hackers appear to meddling in the US election in order to install Trump.
 
Trump making fun of Clintons middle name is childish and inappropriate. And it’s certainly not presidential. There are plenty of legit issues to go after her for.
 
Cider said:
Trump making fun of Clintons middle name is childish and inappropriate. And it’s certainly not presidential. There are plenty of legit issues to go after her for.
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What is Hillary’s middle name?
 
Jeanne_S said:
What is Hillary’s middle name?
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It’s actually her maiden name that she turned into a middle name when she got married. Rodham. But Trump was of course pronouncing it rotten. Look, I can’t stand her personally. But this isn’t the kind of behavior I want to see from any candidate for POTUS.
 
Cider said:
Trump making fun of Clintons middle name is childish and inappropriate. And it’s certainly not presidential. There are plenty of legit issues to go after her for.
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Childish is what it is…
 
DeniseNY said:
Not her middle name; her maiden name. Rodham. He was calling her “Rotten”.
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Yes, but he was referring to it as her middle name, since she has adopted the name Hillary Rodham Clinton for a long time. She doesn’t use Diane, her middle name at birth.
 
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