Right. I have seen stories like this now for a couple of weeks. It is obvious the campaign is reeling and trying to regroup. They are a tight-knit bunch of outsiders who are very devoted to Trump but not necessarily sharp about grass roots politics - how the ground game is played. Trump himself has just used his celebrity status - played media cycles and rallies, late night tweets. He has avoided using insiders in his team. Hence the mistakes.
Rumor has it Corey Lewandowski will soon be replaced. And I expect Trump will try to get more insider support, direction going forward. The question will be is it too little too late.
Which is why losing Wisconsin is a blow (also Colorado defeat coming too). I think the public will increasingly see this “wheels coming off” problem.
The final test of Trump’s strength will be New York (4/19/16) and then Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island (4/26/16). New York is proportional, so all of the candidates get a percentage of delegates. If he wins big there (and he should; this is “his country”), then he is back in the game. But after that, another problem: the race goes back to states more favorable to Cruz. Kasich could be a factor in PA/NY also. He is campaigning hard in both states. We don’t know at this point what impact that will make. I am interested to see how Kasich does tonight in WI. That might be an indicator whether there is any life there or not.
The most likely outcome, assuming Cruz takes Wisconsin tonight, is an open convention, nobody gets to 1237. If Trump does take Wisconsin by some miracle, I completely agree it is over. (and by over I mean Trump wins nomination, loses general) But I also think if he loses tonight and Cruz or Kasich make dents in the delegate count in PA, NY, etc. it is more or less over for Trump. By that I mean, open convention, Cruz has sizable delegate count, wins on second ballot. Likely loses general, but maybe not.
