Tucker Carlson is Half Right

[Pattylt]

…and it’s often not like you have to move a thousand miles away! We moved about a 5 hour drive and one state away.

Wow! 25% unemployment! I have no idea what ours was but I bet it was close to that. Everyone seemed to be losing their jobs!

 

[Peeps]

The State of Illinois has the 2nd highest number of people who have moved AWAY from the state. (New Jersey has the highest number.) We are literally bleeding people. Our city of 150,000 lost over 3000 people last year–they moved out of our city and many moved out of our state.

I don’t blame them. I love Illinois–it’s beautiful, has a temperate climate, rich soil, miles of breathtaking fields of corn and soybeans, and has a thrilling history. But with four of our governors in prison (in my lifetime, and I’m only 61!), and a State Constitution with crippling and unrealistic requirement about State workers’ pensions, and with a King who has ruled the state for over 30 years–it’s no wonder people are escaping. We would leave, too, except that we have elderly parents that we want to stay near until they are called home to heaven. Love is a strong magnet.

 

[JimG]

From the originally posted article by John Zmirak:

“Carlson’s central complaint is serious. The family is collapsing in America, except among the upper and upper middle class. Marriage rates, birth rates, you name it — they’re all trending badly. The crisis of single parenthood that Daniel Patrick Moynihan identified in 1965 among black Americans? Working class white Americans now repeat the same pathology, and it’s far, far worse among blacks.”

The Moynihan Report, written back in 1965. focused on the economic conditions of African American communities. It related increasingly poor economic conditions to the collapse of family structure. The report was sharply criticized and ignored. But now we see the same things happening not just in minority families but in all families: family collapse enables and leads to economic collapse.

And sometimes government policies enable family collapse. For example, why would a single mother marry the father of her child when doing so would cause her benefits to cease. When government becomes the substitute dad, the need for actual dad’s is diminished. The need is for policies that strengthen families, not weaken them. But following the sexual revolution, even the idea of a traditional family is not accepted or actively reviled. So we have more family collapse which leads to economic collapse.

 

[CamelJoe]

Thats what is so tough about it though, because no one wants to see children suffering for the mistakes of their parents. So we create government programs and laws to help the kids, only to find that by doing so we’ve begun destroying the husband and father.

One way or another, someone is going to hurt. Be it the kids because they go hungry, or the whole family because the government incentivized single-motherhood.

 

[phil19034]

phil19034:

Major economic shifts typically originate in one sector of the economy and then spread.

The working woman started primarily an urban city professional. The effects of this started in the cities and suburbs first. Then eventually started to filter into rural America.

Women have always worked and often for pay. Consider Proverbs 31. Then there were the seamstresses, laundresses, and other women who did household chores for pay. And lets not forget widows who had to support their families.

Of course. I never said they didn’t. But jobs used to be more gender specific.

The law of supply & demand that I’m mentioning took place when the majority of women starting working in white collar professions that were historically for men or didn’t exist in the past.

The point was that certain section ms of the labor market (mostly white collar jobs) eventually saw almost a 100% increase in avalible applicants.

More people to choose from, less an employer has to pay.

It’s the white collar jobs that that have stagnated, this didn’t really happen in blue collar jobs. Blue color jobs (even engineering jobs) continue to see rising salaries (as long as the job isn’t replaced by robots)

 

[otjm]

That answer cn be found in economics, and while there is a joke that if you have three economists in a room, you will get four opinions, there are some consistent threads.

Prior to WW2, men were the primary employees. Women might have menial jobs, but by and large they were not in construction, labor, factories, or outside sales (to name a few).

Brecause of the vast number of men called into the military with WW2, women took jobs which had been traditionally men’s, It was not until I was in my 50’s that I found out that my mother had become Rosey the Welder - she actually was welding in the shipyard in Portland.

When the men came back after the war, the companies did not all fire the women and give the men back their jobs; they found that they had skilled labor at cheaper costs. and the downward spiral got into gear. Women, in turn often found they could do things that 10 or 15 years before they had not dreamed of, and they saw that having a second paycheck made life more comfortable. The two wage earner family became an objective as a means of “doing better”.

that by no means was the total of it, but that made a significant shift in both sides - labor and management. A significant part of what drives business is consumers, and as there was more money available in household income, there was in turn more production. What Henry Ford and others had learned of mass production became more widespread, more was produced often at lower overall cost, and the end result has been that the net value of wages has gone down. We might talk about, for example, haircuts costing $0.75 in the 1950’s, and now I pay $17.00for the same haircut. all of which is another way of saying that the value (a good haircut) is the same, but the cost has risen. Or an economist would say the value of a dollar has gone down. And wages did not keep up; they went up, but slower.

My dad was a barber and sole income of the family. My folks had a house built in 1951, and I don’t think I ever knew what the cost was. She sold the house in 1990 for just under $91,000.

Zillow, which I would trust as far as I could throw the whole program, gives a current estimate of $480,000. Not too many barbers are going to be buying that house off their own income.

 

[JimG]

As to inflation, it should be kept in mind that the official policy of the Federal Reserve is to aim for a 2% inflation rate as normal. In other words, it is a matter of monetary policy that your money, including your savings, will decrease in value by at least 2% every single year.

If it were up to me, I’d aim for a truly stable currency and an inflation rate of zero. But the Fed is more afraid of deflation than inflation, thus their policy of continually devaluing the currency.

 

[Peeps]

Good comments on this thread.

What puzzles me is that all the men in my life DO make a really good wage, a wage that would allow a wife to stay home with children if the family agrees that this is what they want.

My husband, my brother, my brother-in-laws (2), my cousins and cousins-in-law, my son-in-law, my other daughter’s “boyfriend” (not really, but they spend time together)–they all make a good wage. About half work at “desk” jobs, and the other half are in “physical” jobs.

Of course, we are all white, and that has given our families advantages in the past (and some say those advantages are still there).

But there are plenty of white men who are chronically unemployed, or who are employed but don’t earn a high enough wage to have a one-paycheck family.

Only one of our family members lives “high” (huge home in Chicago area, several trips a year to exotic vacation destinations, etc.). But he’s a lawyer and an electrical engineer, and he spent about 12 years in college and grad school and law school to get to where he is. It certainly didn’t fall into his lap.

One of our family members doesn’t live high, but he owns over 40 properties including a farm. They were inherited, but he has no trouble keeping them up.

The rest of us live pretty simply in smallish, older homes, drive older cars, and generally take vacations to visit each other rather than flying to a recreational destination. We do fine, and our expanding waistlines demonstrate that we have plenty to eat! Not sure what retirement will bring, though.

So what makes our family males succeed in their choice of jobs, while others struggle? I think it would be good for social scientists to study people like us and see why we are doing OK while so many others languish here in the U.S. Interestingly, all of these family members, both the lawyer and the farmer and all the rest, with only one exception, voted for Pres. Trump. None of us agree with much of anything the Democratic Party supports. Is that a factor?

Like I said, an interesting study. Rather than putting in so many study hours on those who do NOT succeed, or on those who succeed beyond their wildest dreams, why not study the regular guy who is doing OK?

 

[Lemuel]

If you believe in your God given rights, you believe in the right of an employer to negotiate a whatever salary the prospective employee agrees with. If, as an employer, you choose to pay redheads double and Chinese people half, that’s your right. The government needs to stay the heck out of it.

 

[Sarcelle]

I can see this in my own family.

My parents’ generation still have intact marriages, several of them have celebrated their golden wedding anniversary.

Now my own generation, those who got married got divorced and the rest didn’t marry at all.

The generation after us aren’t even getting married. They live together with their partners and think that marriage is only for the rich. Actually some did get married, to their same sex partners.

 

[Pattylt]

If you believe in your God given rights, you believe in the right of an employer to negotiate a whatever salary the prospective employee agrees with.

Does the possible employee really have any choice in this? If one is unemployed, their decision seems to be between no job or accepting the crappy wages offered? Sure, high skill jobs have bargaining power but regular labor jobs? Whether one favors labor unions or not, they had a dramatic effect on wages because they actually did the bargaining for those jobs.

Businesses hated labor unions and I realize there was some serious issues with corruption in some of them but a shop union is a democratic process of electing representatives and having collective bargaining power because of it.

CEOs went from making about 300% of average paid wages to today of 1000%. My numbers aren’t really correct but the ratio is! Isn’t CEO greed a factor? Just asking here…give me the other side of the story!

 

[BoomBoomMancini]

If you believe in your God given rights, you believe in the right of an employer to negotiate a whatever salary the prospective employee agrees with. If, as an employer, you choose to pay redheads double and Chinese people half, that’s your right. The government needs to stay the heck out of it.

Just because freedom to contract is a good thing generally doesn’t mean it’s unrestricted or unqualified or you don’t prudentially balance it against other goods.

See the Lochner era stuff if you’re interested in this from a legal perspective.

 

[vsedriver]

…and it’s often not like you have to move a thousand miles away! We moved about a 5 hour drive and one state away.

whether moving is an answer depends on a lot of things. If you own your home and then lose your job can you afford to move away? When the housing crisis hit people were stuck with homes they couldn’t sell or would have still owed the bank because they couldn’t sell at a price to cover their loan.

moving away from family is risky too. Many are unwilling to abandon elderly parents who are still independent but need some assistance. In one case in my family there was a death and the husband now had 3 kids and no wife or family to help. He moved back to be closer to family. Took a huge pay cut, but didn’t want his small children in day care all day. Another had a severe illness and she moved her whole family back to have familial support.

 

[vsedriver]

Hopefully , all this building pressure will cause many of the lower-class males and females to get serious about school when they are very young

this has been the standard answer to escaping poverty but in today’s world it isn’t that easy. A college education is no longer a guarantee of a good income. In fact, a skilled plumber makes more than most college graduates today.

education is lagging behind on what society needs. The majority of kids who got a high school education went into skilled trades or manufacturing work. But I have watched manufacturing disappear beginning in the 60s. As industrial jobs went overseas a whole class of workers were left to fend for themselves. The government answered by offering loans so people could get that college education. Colleges raised tuition and dumbed down curriculum to keep a large number of students and their cash flow.

We still need skilled trades but out education system barely acknowledges the value of a skilled trade. My oldest son when to the local vocational school his last two years of high school. He went on to college, didn’t graduate but his vocational training (security work) got him a good paying job. He’s currently not getting a pay check because he works for the TSA. But he knew about government shut downs and planned for it. He has 4 months income in the bank. He did this by not getting a credit card, by not going on trips, by not buying anything but food. He has a one bedroom apartment and no TV. He only has internet. That takes a lot of self discipline.

Our economy has shifted from a manufacturing base to a service base and service jobs have never paid very well. Out of the six of us siblings the two making the most money have the least education. My brother who just retired was a manager of a truck terminal and my sister who got a 2 year nursing degree 30 years ago. My two brothers and sister with master’s degrees make a lot less. All three are teachers. I’m fortunate that I got into computers early and have great computer skills so I can go anywhere but I also have my elderly mother living with me. I’m not going to move as long as she is alive.

My kids will not live in our area. There are no jobs. My youngest is job hunting now. He just finished his masters. He’s very well educated and a very hard worker but having a hard time finding a job in his field. I’m just hoping he doesn’t end up thousands of miles away but that is a real possibility.

 

[Pattylt]

I’m not denying that some may find it impossible to move away…I just think that many don’t want to. It’s scary to relocate.

Every scenario you bring up I watched happen when I lived in Wyoming during what they call “the bust”. People walked away from their homes and told the banks to sue them if they thought they could get anything from them! They had no choice…they couldn’t pay the mortgage and the house wouldn’t sell at any price. Most filed bankruptcy. Thousands left in a state that barely had two million to begin with. Many had husbands leave the home to find work and sent money back if they could swing it…many men just abandoned their family entirely.

Most people will do every and anything they can to keep from being destitute. I just question those that are capable of moving and refuse to do so because they fear change even more.

 

[Sarcelle]

I spent my entire life moving from one place to another.

My father moved his family around for his job and now I have had to move several times to get a job.

I am still grateful to have found jobs that paid very well even in tough economic times even though I have had to move.

Moving is quite stressful and scary so I can understand why some people refuse to move. It also can be stressful living in an area without familial or social support.

 

[Fets]

I have a lot of thoughts on this that no one is talking about. One, the family is doing much better among practicing Catholics, practicing Protestants than it is the rest of the population. That’s just a fact. The rate of divorce is lowest among Catholics. So, religion does have a lot to do with it. The family is protected and championed by the Church. Its not surprising that such an institution is crumbling, moreso in secular America.

As far as the economy, it too is very secular. As unpopular as it is, and even though I’ll get dozens of knee-jerk reactions. You know who has really healthy families in America? The Amish. But also homeschooling Christians. No, we don’t have to live like the Amish. But, the economy today is a lot different than the economy in the 1950s. Is a difference in pay between men and women part of it? Sure. But, I don’t think this economics only view is correct.

I think individualism is largely to blame. What if Americans moved around a lot less? What if you still lived relatively close to your extended family? You’d have grandparents, aunts, uncles, cousins. If YOU had a hard time financially there would be plenty of people there. And not only your own family, but think of the ethnic neighborhoods in America. In the Godfather, the mafia helps the widowed single mother. But, much more often it was Church organizations. The Knights of Columbus were founded for that exact reason.

Where in America is unemployment and homelessness the lowest? Utah. As much as the Mormons are wrong theologically, they have very strong communities. Life isn’t about getting a job for yourself and struggling yourself to provide for your family. If we still had communities like they do in Utah, a lot of people who are “down on their luck” would be helped financially. And in Utah, they don’t sit and collect welfare. They help them get a job.

The Nutshell version would be: dreams of Distributism lol

 

[Zzyzx_Road]

At the low end, the manufacturing jobs declined at the same time the illegals were allowed in. So the squeeze is on for these people. Yet it is inappropriate to tell them to go to college when many of them aren’t suited for it. It’s pretty dang tough to be married and to maintain that in the face of the difficulties at that end of the income range.

The middle class is also getting hammered. These are the people who overpaid for worthless degrees and who thanks to that 2005 bankruptcy law change, cannot discharge their student loans that way. But at the same time, the government conspires with big business to bring in cheaper foreign labor on H-1B, H-2B, L-1 and OPT visas. It is through the presence of the H-1B’s that I saw coming for my job that forced me into a career change into something that cannot be outsourced. I know many who have been left behind scrambling for the scraps after their employers maxed out on their imported worker limits.

These are the job market pressures on one side of men and the families they can no longer support. On the second side is the family and child support laws that allow men to be separated from their families with no recourse. Then there is the third side, that is what it costs to have unsubsidized health insurance for not only themselves but also their families. This is what serves to tie people to corporate jobs they can’t leave, due to the benefits. Between these three great forces, marriage is rapidly becoming a privilege of the upper middle class and higher. Because men in the lower classes can’t afford it and the women we might expect to marry them generally do not marry down.

 

[Pattylt]

Open question:
Did America shift from laws favoring the family unit over the business interest to favoring businesses over families?

 

[Sarcelle]

Individualism is not to blame in my case.

I could have stayed happily in my home state and stayed close to family and friends but I got laid-off. I had to be willing to move to find a job.

Some of us don’t have a choice but to move.